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I have never understood why daily games are legal. The outcomes can be determined by random events like injuries or the weather. How is this not gambling?
I have never understood why daily games are legal. The outcomes can be determined by random events like injuries or the weather. How is this not gambling?
1. The prizes offered are established ahead of time (fixed prize pool, most sites implement this by capping the number of entries - and covering any overlay if not enough people enter)
2. The scoring is based on statistical results in multiple-real world games (none of the DFS sites allow you to 'bet' on a single games - the players must come from a pool of at least two NFL games)
3. Can't make "traditional bets" (spread, over/under)
(And less revelant to most people, you can't play fantasy for money if you are an member of the team - i.e. athletes can't 'bet' on themselves)
I have never understood why daily games are legal. The outcomes can be determined by random events like injuries or the weather. How is this not gambling?
I don't understand what seems to be a distinction between daily games and season-long leagues. Season-long outcomes are affected by injuries and other random factors as well(just ask anyone who drafted Adrian Peterson with their first pick this year).
Earlier quoted context omitted.
You'll surely be more efficient with handling data, but you don't have digital access to all the data you'd need. For example, the chance that a player plays at all (if they are in questionable health) is one of the most important signals. But you can't just write a regression from past data on that player/team/coach. An intuitive guess from reading several media reports will be far for accurate. This guy is surely m…
> You'll surely be more efficient with handling data, but you don't have digital access to all the data you'd need. It occurs to me that collating said data in an accessible format for a modest fee would be a pretty good low hanging fruit business idea. I'm sure there must be something like that out there but last time I looked into this, 2-3 years ago, I couldn't even get the NBA schedule in JSON or some other progr…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STATS_LLC
"STATS LLC is a global sports statistics and information company – the company name originated as an acronym for "Sports Team Analysis and Tracking Systems". It was founded on April 30, 1981[1] by John Dewan,[2] who became the company's CEO. STATS was an outgrowth of the grassroots non-profit Project Scoresheet, a volunteer network created to collect baseball statistics, prompted by a suggestion made by Bill James, who later joined STATS for a time. In 1987, STATS developed a reporter network for Major League Baseball and provided research for NBC's postseason baseball coverage, and by 1989 was doing the same for ESPN's broadcasts.[1]"
I've been thinking about this recently. A developer could do so much better (he's still copying from spreadsheets). Who wants to put this guy out of business with me?
I spent no money on data, everything you need is available for free.
If anyone has advanced knowledge of other sports and wants to collaborate, send me an email or tweet. Contact info in profile.
Here are my 2014 MLB results from Fanduel, the site I spent the majority of my time on:
Entered $15,128.00
Won $17,022.04
Profit $1,894.04
ROI 12.52%
When I heard the fan duel ads on the radio and then saw it on ESPN, I couldn't believe that it was legal. Then I saw the law with the exception for fantasy sports and I was just super jealous of these legal sports book operators. Running an online sports book is like having a free money machine.
I have a lot of knowledge of advanced baseball statistic analysis, and played about $100 per day this year during the season, making a profit of ~$2000. This is my third straight winning season, but the first where I actually wrote code that spat out lineups. I spent no money on data, everything you need is available for free. If anyone has advanced knowledge of other sports and wants to collaborate, send me an email…
I finally gave up after a few months. The scraper data was fascinating though....there were a few players consistently yielding 80%+ ROI across hundreds of entries.
This is a tough business to win as a player. The house is taking 8 - 10% rake meaning you have to have a 60% winning percentage just to break even. Much better business to be the house. Even if 30% of the players are highly skilled handicappers it's going to be very hard to consistently win this game. Sounds like fun to play, but as in all gambling enterprises, the real money comes from operating the casino, not play…
This is a tough business to win as a player. The house is taking 8 - 10% rake meaning you have to have a 60% winning percentage just to break even. Much better business to be the house. Even if 30% of the players are highly skilled handicappers it's going to be very hard to consistently win this game. Sounds like fun to play, but as in all gambling enterprises, the real money comes from operating the casino, not play…
That's only correct in a constant sized market. In a growing market with lots of new money coming in, its much easier to win. When growth stops, it becomes much more difficult. The vast majority of remaining players start losing, only the house (and maybe a couple sharks) can win consistently. Assuming a market in continual decline, eventually everyone loses (except the house).
Nate Silver devotes a chapter to this in The Signal and the Noise. He goes through the numbers, anecdotally supported by his experience during the online poker boom.