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You Are Not Late

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1–10 of 66 posts

Re: You Are Not Late

#4
February 2004 I was a third year CS student in Boston. I remember complaining to a friend of mine that we had missed the boat - Yahoo, Amazon, etc - the web had matured without us and the window of opportunity was closed. If only we had been born 5 years earlier! As fate would have it, that was also the month I signed up for an account on a tiny site called thefacebook.com.

Domains. Google. Facebook. Pinterest. Uber. Bitcoins. It's so easy to feel like you JUST missed the wave. While you look back with anxiety at the wave you missed, you increase your odds of missing the next wave headed straight towards you. And there are always more waves. I had to learn this the hard way, after many missed waves and a lot of anxiety. So now I do what the article says: try to remind myself that the web's best days are ahead of it and there is likely more opportunity now - today! - than ever before. Calm down, take a deep breath and look to the future. Whether it's true or not, who knows, I guess time will tell, but it definitely helps keep me sane.

Re: You Are Not Late

#6
The Internet is not just a technical innovation; the Internet is perhaps the greatest social innovation of all-time.

For the first time in human history almost everyone on earth is instantly connected. This changes everything. Sometimes I'll just sit and think for hours about how different this makes the world we live in. We're playing by a completely new set of rules -- we're playing a completely new game, and even the most innovative people on earth are just barely starting to make sense of it all.

I think we're barely even scratching the surface of what's possible and what is to come.

It's not as obvious as you would think - consider any of the great companies of the past 10 or so years. If they had never been founded, it probably wouldn't be painfully obvious that we need them. It only becomes obvious in retrospect that we were actually in dire need the whole time.

Or look around the room you're in. What will change under the circumstances where everyone is instantly connected to each other and simultaneously to the largest data store the world has ever none? I can imagine ways that almost everything in the room I'm in now will be different. Most won't be good startup ideas, but I would venture a guess that some would.

We're all treading on very fresh ground. This is only the beginning.

Re: You Are Not Late

#7
I've been too early a few times. I was working on secure operating systems in the late 1970s. Proof of correctness in the early 1980s. My major work on the Internet was in the early 1980s. I was working on robotics in the 1980s, and legged robots in the 1990s. I was working on automatic driving in 2003-2005. I figured out how to stop search spam in the 2000s. I have issued patents and published papers on most of this. None of this generated much money.

(Fortunately I also did one of Autodesk's early products, and got pre-IPO stock because they couldn't afford to pay me. I also did the first ragdoll physics engine that worked, and made money off of that.)

In some ways, it's harder now, because there are so many people doing stuff in computing. In the 1980s, the number of people who knew how to make a big program work was quite small. Now everybody can do that. The few people who knew anything about AI had been to Stanford, MIT, or CMU. Now everybody serious takes machine learning class, and you can download good code for it.

There's plenty of opportunity to make money out there, but much of what people are working on is, well, pretty banal. "The best minds of my generation are thinking about how to make people click on ads. This sucks." - Jeffery Hammerbacher, Facebook.

Here's an opportunity to think about. Replace Facebook, and all the various messaging services and streaming video services, with a pay service that costs about $1 a month, with no ads. Computing has become so cheap that you can now undercut "free with ads" on price. Think of a social network as a package like Wordpress - host it anywhere, it talks to everybody else, and it just works. The authentication and spam problems are tough - solve them. There have been a few attempts at federated social networks, such as Diaspora, but the people behind them have no clue how to make them usable or popular. "Ello" is making progress on popularity, but their UI sucks and it doesn't do much. Fix all that.

If you want to do socially useful hardware, look into handheld medical devices. The medical industry tends toward big, heavy equipment designed by doctors. Dean Kamen has made a lot of money downsizing some rather clunky medical devices. Also, the UIs of systems used by doctors for medical records are awful. Doctors used to dictate medical notes. Now they have to type them, worst case on touchscreens. Make that work with voice recognition that understands not only medical terminology, but has access to the patient record for context.

Another possible area - the paperless police car. Cops hate doing paperwork. There's also a movement to make cops carry cameras. Come up with a system which takes the cop's video and audio, and fills in all the info a cop needs to book somebody. Tie the collected video and audio to that for later review if necessary. It would both help to keep cops honest and let them focus on doing their job instead of their paperwork.

So there are a few technically challenging things to do. Quit trying to find the next "Yo". That's like hoping to win the lottery.

Re: You Are Not Late

#9
Fantastic. It's never too late to build or start something. I here a lot of this from 30+ year old entrepreneurs ("but he's 23 fresh out of school" or "am I too old?" - NO! Not even close. The 23 year old with the traction and venture money is a) extremely lucky and b) doesn't know half of what you know!)

An inspiring little feel good article here for those 16 hour days when you just hit your head against the wall. Or for when you need a little inspiration.

Author is right - even in 2025 so many products will have been invented today and tomorrow. Does anyone really think Snapchat will be around in 10 years? The Internet is still in its infancy. Sure, we can communicate with multimedia and watch streaming video but think of the myriad of problems and challenges facing modern day society? Endless and endless opportunity. From biotech, hardware and sensors, energy, communication, health care, VR, AI, machine learning, etc. - all very, very early problems to work on. Each of which will create dozens of profitable and dynamic technology companies.

We have to work on the future and use the amazing platforms currently in place to make something that lasts and makes an impact. I remember 5 years ago what a royal pita it was to setup a physical webserver + app server. Nightmare. Now, it happens in a click. The platforms are getting better in better for entrepreneurs to build on top of them.

This is exciting and should be exciting for anyone and everyone who has a passion to build something. And the future is not 20 chat apps, 20 youtube's, or 20 e-commerce sites selling subscription underwear. The future is wild ideas, things that seem strange and things that don't even seem possible today. But seemingly impossible ideas on the surface today are the ideas that leave a mark in the future.

Let's get nuts.

Re: You Are Not Late

#10
post #7

I've been too early a few times. I was working on secure operating systems in the late 1970s. Proof of correctness in the early 1980s. My major work on the Internet was in the early 1980s. I was working on robotics in the 1980s, and legged robots in the 1990s. I was working on automatic driving in 2003-2005. I figured out how to stop search spam in the 2000s. I have issued patents and published papers on most of this…

Might have to print this out and paste on a wall in the office. Awesome

Unfortunately, a lot of young kids are wired to look for the next Yo and or spend their energy and talents on things that don't really matter. It's crazy out there - the whole "make an app, get users and cash out quickly" mindset. It's very bad and is a major reason why we see so many crap companies and apps launching all the time. But this won't last. Andreessen had a good tweet today "your startup is not the next WhatsApp." And it isn't. The 0.01% chance of this happening, already happened.

There are so many exciting and important problems that need smart people to solve them. Everything you've mentioned from the downright garbage that are EMRs at hospitals, to massive medical devices that can be shrunk, to endless paper work for cops and so many other industries who still use scanning and OCR software to organize their databases. Large but seemingly not-that-complex (from an engineering standpoint) problems. These - these need to be fixed.

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