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Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future

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Re: Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future

#131

I dont't want to be politically judged by HN audience. But, I will tell you this: don't you see that start-ups and innovation happen around things that are the least regulated by the Government. Things with the least amount of required bureaucracy and compliance to the state regulations? Peter Schiff - opened hedge fund from his bedroom. He got lucky, worked had, whatever, his investment company is doing pretty good…

> Nobody in New York ask him to pay 20,000 usd to the city for the privilege of opening business. Nobody ask for that in Europe either, unless you're interested in heavily regulated industries like energy or banking (and they ask for more than $20,000). But we're talking about small businesses, right? I don't know if fashion industry is heavily regulated in Paris, but a 15,000-euro fee to the government sounds like a…

Incorporating e.g Delaware in US is below $1k. In Germany starting a GmbH in Germany requires a $25k Euro capital http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stammkapital There is still a lot more regulation in Europe when it comes to operating a business. It is also one of the reasons why I see so many European start-ups here in San Francisco trying to establish early on.

Re: Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future

#132
post #129
post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "problem" here is the globalization of the economy. I like to think of it as an icecube in a pitcher. If you pour water in, it starts to melt the icecube, so the tip will go down a bit, before it's carried up by the water level. The US/EU is the tip of that iceberg. As economies around the world copy the Western world, they're rapidly expanding and improving the quality of life for millions around the globe, whil…

> Really we're just waiting for everyone else to catch up. I don't buy this without some evidence. China is automating. Quickly. Yet, they still have very significant endemic impoverished population clumps--especially in rural regions. However, with automation, the whole "move everybody to the cities" is breaking down.

> Yet, they still have very significant endemic impoverished population clumps

China has problems, but nothing compared to the China of 20 years ago. China is the poster-child of globalization improving the living conditions of the poor.

Re: Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future

#133
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? I thought the people like Moravec and Kurzweil were predicting 2030 to 2040? I have not seen any analysis from anyone that would push it off past 2100.

You might as well say that we gona create a Warp drive by 2100. Jump necessary for AI advancement makes settlement on Mars an easy problem. We are so far from that we really have no idea how far it is. Human level AI when it happens and it probably will will most likely be at a stage where current tech would seem something out of Ancient Greeks time if not Stone age.

We are moving fast, we are even accelerating fast and we have an incredibly far ways to go. In a situation like this even the most reasonable, well informed estimate could be off by an order of magnitude.

Re: Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future

#134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/rise-of-the-robots...

He is in the "all we need is fast enough computers" camp. This claim is far from obvious: We can't even simulate the simplest organisms today despite the fact that we have extraordinary computing power relative to the capacity of these organisms.

This is true, but the evidence so far with AI is that as soon as we have sufficient computational power the tasks that were thought to require human intelligence were then solved by computers.

I don’t think anyone serious thinks that sufficient computational power alone will result in AGI, but we know that we aren’t going to have it until we get to the human level computational.

The interesting question is once we have human level computational power is how long will it take to develop AGI. The evidence from problems that require more limited intelligence (say chess) is that the problem is solved soon after the required computational resources are available.

Re: Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future

#135
post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uh huh. Exactly what will they have accomplished by 2020? Ignition? Who cares? Based on their own timeline the earliest possible date for a commercial fusion reactor is 2050.

I'll just leave this [1] here. Seems we'll have more than just ignition in 2020. :) 1. http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/ON-British-boy-builds-fusi...

That article could have been from 1955, you know.

Re: Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future

#136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you are just proving the author's point. The author is saying that people living today are overly concerned about the environmental effects of experimenting with new technologies when compared with people in the recent past. You, being a person living today, have just expressed that you are overly concerned about the environmental effects of experimenting with new technologies. That's not a criticism, we are…

>have just expressed that you are overly concerned The "overly" in that sentence is a value judgement. It may or may not be 'overly' to have a number of concerns over certain advances. The difference between the 60's and current day is that they had fewer examples of the disastrous negative consequences that can accompany new inventions. "We cannot know the consequences of our actions until we act" is not entirely tr…

>The "overly" in that sentence is a value judgement. It may or may not be 'overly' to have a number of concerns over certain advances.

I agree, it is a value judgement. I agree it is possible that people today may or may not be overly concerned. But outside of maths, we only have value judgements to know what is a good decision and what is a bad decision. It all depends on what we want. What the author is pointing out is that you can't have your cake and eat it too - if we are so concerned about the environment to the point that it limits technological progress, then we'll have less technological progress than we would otherwise have had. I'm not sure you can argue with that. Maybe that's a good thing from some people's point of view, but for other people (including probably many people living several decades ago) the current level of concern that we have for the environment today would be unduly high compared with their perceived benefits from technological progress. But maybe we have our level of concern exactly right? Who knows?

>The difference between the 60's and current day is that they had fewer examples of the disastrous negative consequences that can accompany new inventions.

In absolute terms this is correct. Of course the present has more examples of something happening than the past. But you are forgetting that we have more examples of positive consequences in that have accompanied new inventions too. Why should the negative consequences be weighted more heavily than the positive consequences?

In relative terms, I have to disagree with you though. People living in the 60's had either lived through 1 or 2 world wars or had relatives and friends that recently lived through 2 world wars. Both of these wars exploited technological advances that meant more people could suffer the brutality of war than at any previous time in history.

>"We cannot know the consequences of our actions until we act" is not entirely true - we can infer and put in reasonable risk management processes.

You changed what I wrote, which isn't very polite. I said we cannot know "all" the consequences. I think when the word "all" is included it's hard to argue with. You are right though that we can try to manage risks, but the point I was making in the context of the article is that there is a risk when not acting too, which is difficult to measure but isn't 0.

I think this discussion has made me think more about what the author was trying to say - that people living today focus on the negatives of technological advances. I actually wonder if the language of "risk" has made that worse. I talk about risks myself all the time in my day job... something to think about :)

Re: Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future

#137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is putting the wagon in front of the horse IMHO. A monopoly doesn't drive progress imho it takes advantage of an opportunity no one else did compared to where the world is at any given time.

> takes advantage of an opportunity no one else did Sounds like a reasonable definition of progress.

That doesn't mean that the monopoly drives it and there are plenty of examples of monopolies hindering it.

Re: Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future

#138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one knows. It's a black swan. It's not predictable as a rule. I fully expect it within 30 years simply based on the rate of progression, overall (not in the field of AI specifically).

>No one knows. It's a black swan. It's not predictable as a rule. As an Australian I always have found the term black swan amusing as all our swans are black - I would actually be shocked to see a white swan. More seriously why do you think 30 years?

For the similar reasons to what Kurzweil puts forth here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Singularity_Is_Near

Here it is in seven quick minutes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1uIzS1uCOcE (Note: I think he's wrong in how he thinks it will unfold, but right in thinking the doubling every year of technology, in general, will contribute to bringing it about.)

Re: Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future

#139
post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll just leave this [1] here. Seems we'll have more than just ignition in 2020. :) 1. http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/ON-British-boy-builds-fusi...

That article could have been from 1955, you know.

It had an equal likelihood of being from 2020, as well.

Re: Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future

#140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of those were government projects. And two were either completely or largely secret at that, because they were intended to address an "existential threat" on the horizon. Good luck getting the government behind anything like that anymore. Unless we have some otherworldly threat or something that MIGHT challenge US dominance in short order I don't see any big projects coming out of the U.S. government.

The 21st century Manhattan project is pervasive surveillance. And just like the Manhattan project or Apollo, we'll all be getting something out of that for many years to come.

I realize you're being cynical but I disagree anyway given "pervasive surveillance" doesn't have a singular goal or accomplishment criteria.
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