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Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future

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Re: Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future

#121

Post by Animats »

adrianN wrote: post #77
Animats wrote: post #67

Thiel has some good points about the lack of progress. Rocketry is only slightly better than it was 45 years ago. We've hit the limit of chemical fuels, and weight reduction can only go so far. In comparison, 45 years took us from the Wright Flyer to the first jet aircraft. Fission power isn't much further along than it was 45 years ago, either. Nor is fusion power. Nor is power transmission. At the high-power end of…

Fusion power is quite a bit further along than 45 years ago. We're in the process of building ITER, with ignition expected in 2020. The main problem for fusion power is the utter lack of funding it receives: http://i.imgur.com/sjH5r.jpg

ITER probably won't work. They don't have a solution to plasma instability. They're hoping that if they build the thing, they'll be able to fix that. Probably not. http://www.jp-petit.org/NUCLEAIRE/ITER/ITER_fusion_non_contr...

Re: Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future

#122

Post by tsotha »

anonbanker wrote: post #117
tsotha wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're still thirty years away. Just like we were back then.

2020 is thirty years away?

Uh huh. Exactly what will they have accomplished by 2020? Ignition? Who cares? Based on their own timeline the earliest possible date for a commercial fusion reactor is 2050.

Re: Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future

#123

Post by sitkack »

byEngineer wrote: post #94
sitkack wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This idea is frankly retarded. I am not saying you have had it. This is directed at You. To say that monopolies drive progress strikes me as an anthropomorphisation of the motivations of innovators. Did AT&T Microsoft and Ford drive progress? Hardly. They existed when progress occurred but to attribute it do them is generous. Most progress is driven by the artists and scientists on the edge, they rarely see the fruit…

Funny you say this. I hate monopolies as the next guy. Reading Thiel's book right now. What he says is that monopolies can have luxury of innovation while in the perfect market conditions it is all about as low margin as possible without cash flying around to spend on extravaganza like innovation. AT&T: telecommunications company that employed Dennis Ritchie and Brian Kerninghan to figure out software to play chess.…

Because this existed at a monopoly doesn't mean monopolies are good. Arguing from the standpoint of perfect markets makes no sense, only in a theoretical self consistent system, but it will have little bearing on reality.

An analogous argument can be made that war is good because DARPA funds research. We don't need war to have government sponsored research.

Because these occurred in one location under the umbrella of single entity doesn't make them better than if they were singular accomplishments by hundreds of organizations.

Re: Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future

#124

Post by sitkack »

cpeterso wrote: post #78
thathonkey wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So the argument is that monopolies are ok so long as they are won fair and square? Umm... ok.

AFAIU, Thiel doesn't say monopolies are good. He says the pursuit of monopolies drives progress: “Monopolies drive progress. The promise of years or even decades of monopoly profits provides a powerful incentive to innovate.” http://www.technologyreview.com/review/531491/the-contrarian...

BTW: sorry for unfortunate typos on my end, my comment was not directed at you.

Re: Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future

#125

Post by anonbanker »

tsotha wrote: post #122
anonbanker wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

2020 is thirty years away?

Uh huh. Exactly what will they have accomplished by 2020? Ignition? Who cares? Based on their own timeline the earliest possible date for a commercial fusion reactor is 2050.

I'll just leave this [1] here. Seems we'll have more than just ignition in 2020. :)

1. http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/ON-British-boy-builds-fusi...

Re: Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future

#126

Post by adrianN »

Animats wrote: post #121
adrianN wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fusion power is quite a bit further along than 45 years ago. We're in the process of building ITER, with ignition expected in 2020. The main problem for fusion power is the utter lack of funding it receives: http://i.imgur.com/sjH5r.jpg

ITER probably won't work. They don't have a solution to plasma instability. They're hoping that if they build the thing, they'll be able to fix that. Probably not. http://www.jp-petit.org/NUCLEAIRE/ITER/ITER_fusion_non_contr...

Do you have a more credible source than a website from someone who claims to have received letters from aliens? There seems to enough scientific consensus that ITER will work to convince people to spend quite a bit of money on it.

Re: Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future

#127

Post by Animats »

adrianN wrote: post #126
Animats wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ITER probably won't work. They don't have a solution to plasma instability. They're hoping that if they build the thing, they'll be able to fix that. Probably not. http://www.jp-petit.org/NUCLEAIRE/ITER/ITER_fusion_non_contr...

Do you have a more credible source than a website from someone who claims to have received letters from aliens? There seems to enough scientific consensus that ITER will work to convince people to spend quite a bit of money on it.

The definition of "will work" has been downsized over the years. What ITER is now claimed to do is much less than it was originally supposed to do. Originally it was supposed to be able to produce 500MW more or less continuously. That goal has been downsized to 300-500 seconds. The current record for holding a fusion reaction together is about a second. If ITAR beats that by a reasonable margin, its backers can call it a victory and go home.

http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/nuclear_pow...

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/19/a-veteran-of-fu...

If anybody seriously thought this would work commercially, it would get its $15 billion in private funding and be working in three years.

Re: Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future

#128

Post by foobarqux »

danieltillett wrote: post #60
foobarqux wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where can I find this analysis? It is impossible that there is no reasonable criticism to be made.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/rise-of-the-robots...

He is in the "all we need is fast enough computers" camp. This claim is far from obvious: We can't even simulate the simplest organisms today despite the fact that we have extraordinary computing power relative to the capacity of these organisms.

Re: Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future

#129

Post by bsder »

rqebmm wrote: post #115
bsder wrote: post #71

The problem is that the US has too many people who were actually better off in the past. This is where the pessimism comes from. While a very small number of high-tech areas have gone fast-forward into the future and are way better off, the vast majority of the country has been left behind. Fix that, and people will be optimistic again.

The "problem" here is the globalization of the economy. I like to think of it as an icecube in a pitcher. If you pour water in, it starts to melt the icecube, so the tip will go down a bit, before it's carried up by the water level. The US/EU is the tip of that iceberg. As economies around the world copy the Western world, they're rapidly expanding and improving the quality of life for millions around the globe, whil…

> Really we're just waiting for everyone else to catch up.

I don't buy this without some evidence.

China is automating. Quickly. Yet, they still have very significant endemic impoverished population clumps--especially in rural regions.

However, with automation, the whole "move everybody to the cities" is breaking down.

Re: Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future

#130

Post by seanflyon »

ThomPete wrote: post #111
cpeterso wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AFAIU, Thiel doesn't say monopolies are good. He says the pursuit of monopolies drives progress: “Monopolies drive progress. The promise of years or even decades of monopoly profits provides a powerful incentive to innovate.” http://www.technologyreview.com/review/531491/the-contrarian...

That is putting the wagon in front of the horse IMHO. A monopoly doesn't drive progress imho it takes advantage of an opportunity no one else did compared to where the world is at any given time.

> takes advantage of an opportunity no one else did

Sounds like a reasonable definition of progress.

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