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How a Trillion-Dollar Market Remains Hidden in Plain Sight

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Re: How a Trillion-Dollar Market Remains Hidden in Plain Sight

#31
Parts of this article gloss over important facts.

> These new platforms are able to create a marketplace where lenders and borrowers can find one another and agree to terms, all without the involvement of retail banks or credit card companies.

Credit card companies provide revolving lines of credit; the author's "marketplace lenders" provide term loans. These are two different beasts.

While some folks do use term loans to pay off debt with a higher interest rate under a revolving line of credit, the non-professionals eager to finance consolidation loans would be wise to heed Mark Cuban's advice, "Always look for the fool in the deal. If you don't find one, it's you."

> And instead of receiving 1% interest for keeping their money in a CD, active lenders on marketplace platforms receive, on average, an 8% return on their investments.

Most CDs are FDIC-insured. Casually comparing an FDIC-insured certificate of deposit to an unsecured note that has both credit and interest rate risk is insanely foolish.

> Earlier this year my whitepaper on marketplace lending forecast that the sector has the potential to originate $1T in loans globally by 2025.

"Marketplace lenders" are absolutely here to stay, but the influx of capital to this space has a lot to do with ZIRP. The author doesn't acknowledge this, but when interest rates start to rise, which could happen within the next year, the environment for "marketplace lenders" is going to change.

Re: How a Trillion-Dollar Market Remains Hidden in Plain Sight

#32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. This is probably the most widely spread misunderstanding about banking. A reserve requirement says the following: Sum up the amount of deposits of a bank (on the passive, debt side of the balance sheet), call that A. Then look at what the bank has in its account(s) at the central bank, call that B. Banks must ensure that on average, B must be greater than x% of A. So, let's look at a simple example of a bank B th…

So, you're saying that a bank can leverage a $100 deposit to make a $9900 loan, so long as it can borrow the $9900 from another bank in the event that the person it has made the loan to wants to actually withdraw the $9900.

Correct. Furthermore, if no other bank is willing to lend this amount, then the central bank will do so as part of its purpose as lender of last resort (so the condition in your "so long as" is always satisfied).

Note, however, that lending is subject to unrelated constraints, in particular the capital requirements that I've mentioned.

Re: How a Trillion-Dollar Market Remains Hidden in Plain Sight

#33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not how banking works. I give a shot at a better explanation here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8413408 > A $100 deposit generates slightly less than $1K in loans If that were true, the amount of money in circulation would be infinite, because loans also end up as deposits. Edit: More to the point, look at actual numbers in bank balance sheets. The amount of loans tends to be roughly equal to the amou…

>This is not how banking works This is precisely how banking works, at least in countries that have fractional reserve requirements. >If that were true, the amount of money in circulation would be infinite, because loans also end up as deposits. Nope. It would only be infinite if the reserve requirement were 0%. Look at the chart I linked to. This goes on all day, every day at banks around the world. New money is cre…

What do you have to say about the empirical evidence that the total amount of deposits and the total amount of loans in the system is of the same order of magnitude? This clearly contradicts the typical money multiplier story of "X amount of deposits creates X/reserve requirement amount of loans" you have posted.

Furthermore, check out countries without reserve requirements. Do they have an infinite amount of money in circulation?

Yes, banks create new money through credit. However, this is not limited by reserve requirements (if the empirical evidence still doesn't convince you, please read up on how the central bank will always lend the required central bank money to banks when they need it, i.e. the lender of last resort function of central banks). You have to look at capital requirements and general borrower demand and quality to understand what's going on.

Re: How a Trillion-Dollar Market Remains Hidden in Plain Sight

#34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not how banking works. I give a shot at a better explanation here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8413408 > A $100 deposit generates slightly less than $1K in loans If that were true, the amount of money in circulation would be infinite, because loans also end up as deposits. Edit: More to the point, look at actual numbers in bank balance sheets. The amount of loans tends to be roughly equal to the amou…

>This is not how banking works This is precisely how banking works, at least in countries that have fractional reserve requirements. >If that were true, the amount of money in circulation would be infinite, because loans also end up as deposits. Nope. It would only be infinite if the reserve requirement were 0%. Look at the chart I linked to. This goes on all day, every day at banks around the world. New money is cre…

[deleted]

Re: How a Trillion-Dollar Market Remains Hidden in Plain Sight

#35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>This is not how banking works This is precisely how banking works, at least in countries that have fractional reserve requirements. >If that were true, the amount of money in circulation would be infinite, because loans also end up as deposits. Nope. It would only be infinite if the reserve requirement were 0%. Look at the chart I linked to. This goes on all day, every day at banks around the world. New money is cre…

What do you have to say about the empirical evidence that the total amount of deposits and the total amount of loans in the system is of the same order of magnitude? This clearly contradicts the typical money multiplier story of "X amount of deposits creates X/reserve requirement amount of loans" you have posted. Furthermore, check out countries without reserve requirements. Do they have an infinite amount of money i…

Its very simple. Bank A receives a $100 deposit and lends $90. That $90 goes into bank B. Bank B lends $81 of that money. That goes into bank C. Bank C lends $72 of that money, and that goes into bank D.

None of these banks has lent out more than 90% of their deposits, yet the money has multiplied. Of course, most banks will never be able to get to 90% because demand for loans from qualified borrowers isn't high enough. But this is how the system works.

Re: How a Trillion-Dollar Market Remains Hidden in Plain Sight

#36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, you're saying that a bank can leverage a $100 deposit to make a $9900 loan, so long as it can borrow the $9900 from another bank in the event that the person it has made the loan to wants to actually withdraw the $9900.

Correct. Furthermore, if no other bank is willing to lend this amount, then the central bank will do so as part of its purpose as lender of last resort (so the condition in your "so long as" is always satisfied). Note, however, that lending is subject to unrelated constraints, in particular the capital requirements that I've mentioned.

No, you're not correct. You are conflating a number of different things (e.g. fractional reserve banking, interbank lending, capital adequacy requirements) to come up with a deeply flawed understanding of how banks are regulated.

Re: How a Trillion-Dollar Market Remains Hidden in Plain Sight

#37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you have to say about the empirical evidence that the total amount of deposits and the total amount of loans in the system is of the same order of magnitude? This clearly contradicts the typical money multiplier story of "X amount of deposits creates X/reserve requirement amount of loans" you have posted. Furthermore, check out countries without reserve requirements. Do they have an infinite amount of money i…

Its very simple. Bank A receives a $100 deposit and lends $90. That $90 goes into bank B. Bank B lends $81 of that money. That goes into bank C. Bank C lends $72 of that money, and that goes into bank D. None of these banks has lent out more than 90% of their deposits, yet the money has multiplied. Of course, most banks will never be able to get to 90% because demand for loans from qualified borrowers isn't high enou…

For anyone reading this, downandout is correct.

nhaehnle has a deeply flawed understanding of how the principles underlyingmodern banking, and is confusing different funding sources. Do not accept what he says at face value.

Re: How a Trillion-Dollar Market Remains Hidden in Plain Sight

#38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its very simple. Bank A receives a $100 deposit and lends $90. That $90 goes into bank B. Bank B lends $81 of that money. That goes into bank C. Bank C lends $72 of that money, and that goes into bank D. None of these banks has lent out more than 90% of their deposits, yet the money has multiplied. Of course, most banks will never be able to get to 90% because demand for loans from qualified borrowers isn't high enou…

For anyone reading this, downandout is correct. nhaehnle has a deeply flawed understanding of how the principles underlyingmodern banking, and is confusing different funding sources. Do not accept what he says at face value.

And yet both of you lack an actual argument or any piece of evidence to show that I'm wrong. So, the first point is this:

Even if I take a charitable interpretation of what downandout writes, they still contradict themselves. First, they wrote:

> A $100 deposit generates slightly less than $1K in loans

In the latest comment, they wrote:

> Bank A receives a $100 deposit and lends $90. That $90 goes into bank B. Bank B lends $81 of that money. That goes into bank C. Bank C lends $72 of that money, and that goes into bank D. > > None of these banks has lent out more than 90% of their deposits, yet the money has multiplied.

I suppose this shows that they are aware that deposits are roughly equal to loans. But then why write that 100$ of deposits generates roughly 1000$ of loans? The two statements are clearly contradictory. [0]

The second point is this: Perhaps this is a confusion about where deposits actually come from? Today, most deposits are usually made electronically, but even if you actually go ahead and deposit physical money at your bank, that physical money at the bank has previously been withdrawn from a bank account somewhere.

But even if 100$ of physical money were to appear by magic in your wallet and you then went ahead and deposited those at your bank, this would not cause an increase of loans by 1000$. There is just no process in modern banking where anybody at the bank says "Oh look, our deposits have increased, let's go loan to somebody". That just doesn't happen - go talk to actual bankers!

The truth is that the level of loans in the economy is primarily determined by (a) how many people/companies apply for loans and (b) how creditworthy they are. [1] The amount of loans given out by banks might additionally be limited by capital regulations.

However, at no point anywhere does the amount of deposits determine how many loans a bank makes. If anything, it's the other way round, because the level of loans determines the level of money which determines the level of deposits.

I know that your story is the one that a lot of laypeople (and even economists!) perpetuate. Unfortunately, it's just not true.

[0] I honestly fail to see how one could fail to see this. My only explanation is that you people were told this story from when you were children, that you accepted it unquestioningly and it was never pointed out to you.

Edit: Perhaps, to spell it out and make the contradiction more obvious: You assume 100$ entering exogenously as new deposits. You now apply the statement "100$ of deposits generate 900$ in loans". Fine. Those loans become deposits, so now you actually have 1000$ of deposits additionally to the starting point, 900$ of which you have not yet applied the statement "100$ of deposits generate 900$ in loans" to. You now apply this statement 10 times, meaning that 9000$ in loans are generated. Ad infinitum. It just doesn't make any sense even disregarding how the banking system really works.

[1] Note that this is a good thing, because it means that the economy is free to grow quickly!

Re: How a Trillion-Dollar Market Remains Hidden in Plain Sight

#39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Correct. Furthermore, if no other bank is willing to lend this amount, then the central bank will do so as part of its purpose as lender of last resort (so the condition in your "so long as" is always satisfied). Note, however, that lending is subject to unrelated constraints, in particular the capital requirements that I've mentioned.

No, you're not correct. You are conflating a number of different things (e.g. fractional reserve banking, interbank lending, capital adequacy requirements) to come up with a deeply flawed understanding of how banks are regulated.

Evidence that the statements made in my previous comment are correct: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discount_window

This is what I meant by saying that even if a bank fails to borrow from other banks to satisfy its reserve requirements, it can just go to the central bank to get the required money, and that therefore reserve requirements are not a constraint on lending.

By the way: In case you haven't heard of it, read the Modern Monetary Theory Primer here: http://neweconomicperspectives.org/modern-monetary-theory-pr... It's very long, and there are a lot of macroeconomic statements in there that can be disputed, but their description of how the monetary system actually works is spot on and well organized.

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