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CDC confirms first Ebola case diagnosed in US

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Re: CDC confirms first Ebola case diagnosed in US

#81

Post by waterlesscloud »

chc wrote: post #61
jonrimmer wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it mutates and becomes airborne, it might be. That's why containment is so important, even if it doesn't seem so threatening in its current form. Viruses constantly mutate, and every extra person they infect gives them a million more opportunities to do so. All it takes is one of those mutations to make the virus airborne, and we're in big trouble.

If AIDS mutates and becomes airborne, that would also be threatening. Ditto for hantavirus, hepatitis and millions of other diseases. Heck, imagine if black widow venom become airborne and victims started producing more airborne venom themselves! If you're willing to dip into the pool of things that are vanishingly unlikely, there are lots of extremely bad things that could happen.

Hantavirus is sorta airborne. http://www.cdc.gov/hantavirus/technical/hanta/airborne-trans...

Re: CDC confirms first Ebola case diagnosed in US

#82

Post by andrewchambers »

jMyles wrote: post #56
andrewchambers wrote: post #49

I personally would be concerned if I was sat next to that person on the flight back home. Even if the fear is unrealistic. Don't tell me you would happily sitting and eating next to someone with confirmed ebola for 8 hours plus, because they haven't started showing symptoms at that very moment. I would at the very least go to a doctor to be sure.

...because during the flight you'd exchange bodily fluids? Or something?

You are sitting next to someone for 8 hours plus. They will wipe their nose, then put their hand on the arm rest. Then you will proceed to do the same, and eat food at the same time.

I'm not saying it's likely to infect you, I'm saying this would cause personal distress, even if it is unlikely or impossible.

Re: CDC confirms first Ebola case diagnosed in US

#83

Post by rnovak »

nmjohn wrote: post #57

How are you all of you supposedly smart people (you're on hackernews - does that not mean anything anymore?) making such baseless and ignorant comments? If you don't have a degree in a related field or haven't spent any amount of time studying disease (and no, Pandemic the game does not count) you have NO BUSINESS making comments on the preparedness of the US healthcare system - or on how the disease may affect anyth…

I love how you're complaining about people posting without authority, meanwhile not providing a reason that we should listen. Can you say hypocrite?

Re: CDC confirms first Ebola case diagnosed in US

#84

Post by tjradcliffe »

jonrimmer wrote: post #34
gtaylor wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably. Ebola spreads through bodily fluids. This isn't the major, world-ending epidemic that the apocalypse chasers are looking for.

If it mutates and becomes airborne, it might be. That's why containment is so important, even if it doesn't seem so threatening in its current form. Viruses constantly mutate, and every extra person they infect gives them a million more opportunities to do so. All it takes is one of those mutations to make the virus airborne, and we're in big trouble.

While it is tautologically true that if Ebola were to become capable of airborne transmission it would be much more dangerous, there is considerable evidence against the proposition that it is "just one mutation away" from such capability.

Ebola has been around for a long time, and by your own reckoning has had billions of opportunities to mutate into an airborne form. It has not done so. Why not?

The Ebola genome consists of about nineteen thousand base pairs, compared to three billion in the human genome. While that represents a vast amount of combinatoric complexity, biochemical capabilities are not magic. They are not conjured into existence by the wave of a mutational wand, but have to have some substrate in existing functionality, which is why species exist: they are are islands of relative genetic viability in a sea of chaos. An incremental move away from the stable centre will in general be detrimental to the organism, and it will, in the overwhelmingly most common case, require many small, fortunate steps to add a genuinely new capability.

The fact that Ebola has not yet become airborne despite its many opportunities to mutate and do so suggests that we are dealing with a typical case here: that the current genetic configuration of the virus is more than "one mutation away" from being airborne, and it may well be a case of "you can't get there from here" (at least not easily enough for anyone to very worried about in a country where cars kill tens of thousands of people a year and people with guns kill thousands).

Nor does it follow that an airborne form of Ebola would be as deadly as the current form. With such limited genetic material to play with, an airborne virus would necessarily have to change some other characteristics, any of which could reduce its ability to kill.

Re: CDC confirms first Ebola case diagnosed in US

#85

Post by arrrg »

andrewchambers wrote: post #49

I personally would be concerned if I was sat next to that person on the flight back home. Even if the fear is unrealistic. Don't tell me you would happily sitting and eating next to someone with confirmed ebola for 8 hours plus, because they haven't started showing symptoms at that very moment. I would at the very least go to a doctor to be sure.

The Director of the CDC just said in the press conference that the person with Ebola didn’t have any symptoms until a couple days after they arrived.

They departed on the 19th of September, arrived on the 20th, showed first symptoms on the 24th, sought care on the 26th, were admitted to the hospital and isolated on the 28th.

As the Director emphasised again and again, Ebola is only transmittable when you are showing symptoms. There is only the window between the 24th and 28th when the patient with Ebola could have realistically infected anyone, so people travelling along with them aren’t affected. Any people they did have contact with will be monitored for the next 21 days.

Re: CDC confirms first Ebola case diagnosed in US

#86

Post by stephencanon »

jMyles wrote: post #77
knodi123 wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you suggesting an ebola sneeze is a rare or harmless thing? That is the primary means of transmission.

I honestly did not know that. I thought that for a pathogen to be communicable by sneezing made it "airborne," and that Ebola was not. I can't immediately find a source for your claim that sneezing is the "primary means" of transmission - can you provide one?

From the CDC: "Unlike respiratory illnesses like measles or chickenpox, which can be transmitted by virus particles that remain suspended in the air after an infected person coughs or sneezes, Ebola is transmitted by direct contact with body fluids of a person who has symptoms of Ebola disease."

Re: CDC confirms first Ebola case diagnosed in US

#87

Post by kyro »

rnovak wrote: post #83
nmjohn wrote: post #57

How are you all of you supposedly smart people (you're on hackernews - does that not mean anything anymore?) making such baseless and ignorant comments? If you don't have a degree in a related field or haven't spent any amount of time studying disease (and no, Pandemic the game does not count) you have NO BUSINESS making comments on the preparedness of the US healthcare system - or on how the disease may affect anyth…

I love how you're complaining about people posting without authority, meanwhile not providing a reason that we should listen. Can you say hypocrite?

You don't have to be an authority to criticize others for speaking about a topic in which they likely have zero expertise.

Re: CDC confirms first Ebola case diagnosed in US

#88

Post by nmjohn »

rnovak wrote: post #83
nmjohn wrote: post #57

How are you all of you supposedly smart people (you're on hackernews - does that not mean anything anymore?) making such baseless and ignorant comments? If you don't have a degree in a related field or haven't spent any amount of time studying disease (and no, Pandemic the game does not count) you have NO BUSINESS making comments on the preparedness of the US healthcare system - or on how the disease may affect anyth…

I love how you're complaining about people posting without authority, meanwhile not providing a reason that we should listen. Can you say hypocrite?

> I love how you're complaining about people posting without authority, meanwhile not providing a reason that we should listen. Can you say hypocrite?

There is not even an ounce of hypocrisy.

I didn't make any claims of the US preparedness, nor did I say anything about how the disease may or may not spread. If I was going to do that I would only do so if I had research to back it up with - and I am about to get in the car to drive to dinner with my family so I don't have time to read a bunch of journal articles.

Re: CDC confirms first Ebola case diagnosed in US

#89

Post by awakened »

knodi123 wrote: post #69
GFK_of_xmaspast wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your big risks in going to the state fair are mostly related to fried grease products.

Statistically, the sun is much more damaging.

The car ride to the fair is what he should be most afraid of.

Re: CDC confirms first Ebola case diagnosed in US

#90

Post by jonknee »

lee wrote: post #75

Am I one of the minorities who believe that this hype about Ebola is more sensationalism and news than an actual pandemic we should be fearful for? Let's take a lot at what we can agree on: * The number of cases of infected patients is fairly small. * The vector of transmission is fluid exchange, so that reduces its ability to spread. * The virus doesn't appear to lie dormant, and is only contagious when the patient…

Far from the only one, but it's obvious why it is captivating. It has a high fatality rate (>50%) and is quick not to mention graphic. Oh and there's not a cure (though that may be changing!).
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