Earlier quoted context omitted.
>Can somebody explain to me why every startup company(or at least every one that articles are written about) feels the need to raise as much VC as possible ASAP? >The only reason I would postulate for this trend is an increasing amount of non-technical founders who need to pay for developers to make and maintain their product, but don't want to give these developers significant equity in the company. I think this is…
If you want the really good engineers from those companies, they're often making more than $120k - they can be making up to $160k. Speaking as an engineer who has already been pitched at by others working on startups due to my formidable scalable productivity in my domain (while only being in the Bay area for 4 months), I prefer the security of a good salary and a good amount of stock. It would be very hard to convin…
Winter Is Probably Coming Soon
61–70 of 75 posts
Re: Winter Is Probably Coming Soon
#62Of course a VC does not want you wasting his money and will finger wag all day long to try to make entrepreneurs behave. However his analysis focusing on isolated economic indicators is missing the forest for the trees (presumably willfully). Why is money cheap? Because investors have no place to put their money. The accelerating consolidation of wealth within the super rich (ie. the 0.01% funding VCs) and the pathet…
You can still put money in an index fund (e.g. anything from Vanguard) and get reasonable returns (better than most investors at least).
Of course this is a first world problem.
I used to say "Invest in your own human capital" but I took a look at the cost of private schools nowadays, and they're overpriced too. :-)
Re: Winter Is Probably Coming Soon
#63I think it's fair to say that this analysis applies better to web/app companies. There's just a fundamental problem with raising (and burning) millions trying to grow a site for inbound marketing, or an app for dating, or what have you, even though these are great ideas and things that people want: You likely won't be able to generate real revenue on something whose value is so immediately replicable or replaceable.…
> Fundamentally, as a society we need some technical advancement to create meaningful economic growth Fundamentally, as a society we need a social+economic advancement that allows society to continue to function in the absence of growth. Farms don't need growth to produce food. Power plants don't need growth to produce energy. Construction companies don't need growth to build houses. There is no good reason why the w…
Re: Winter Is Probably Coming Soon
#64Can somebody explain to me why every startup company(or at least every one that articles are written about) feels the need to raise as much VC as possible ASAP? There are so many options for developing scalable systems relatively easily and the cost of running an entirely web/software based company(read: 90% of the hot startups) today is comically low, especially with pay what you use PaaS/IaaS systems like those off…
Re: Winter Is Probably Coming Soon
#65Of course a VC does not want you wasting his money and will finger wag all day long to try to make entrepreneurs behave. However his analysis focusing on isolated economic indicators is missing the forest for the trees (presumably willfully). Why is money cheap? Because investors have no place to put their money. The accelerating consolidation of wealth within the super rich (ie. the 0.01% funding VCs) and the pathet…
Re: Winter Is Probably Coming Soon
#66Can somebody explain to me why every startup company(or at least every one that articles are written about) feels the need to raise as much VC as possible ASAP? There are so many options for developing scalable systems relatively easily and the cost of running an entirely web/software based company(read: 90% of the hot startups) today is comically low, especially with pay what you use PaaS/IaaS systems like those off…
> Can somebody explain to me why every startup company(or at least every one that articles are written about) feels the need to raise as much VC as possible ASAP? 1. It pays the bills. 2. Raising money is a strong signal of success both from a personal entrepreneur perspective and for the success of the team (whether you disagree with that notion or not, it's simply true). Whether that translate to success is a diffe…
I did not mean to say that I could build a product like these to demean or belittle them in any way. The vision, ideas and UX execution behind them were clearly thought up by inspired and talented people. What I mean to say is that from a purely technical standpoint, they would be trivially easy to build, so I don't see why you would need to raise millions to pay for "software engineers" to build and maintain your initial product. They are just simple CRUD apps, a class of system of which there are a deluge of accessible and easy to pick up resources and frameworks available to learn how to work with, and a huge pool of cheap developers available. The technical problems that they solve are not novel in any way. While some of the Silicon Valley brogrammer types like to paint themselves as these renegade code wizards hacking on these super hard to solve problems(probably because it helps them get a paycheck), the truth is the problems imposed by CRUD apps are some of the most already solved around. I don't mean to say that there aren't plenty of code wizards hacking on hard to solve problems, but I bet they sure aren't CRUD related. Hell, I don't think its unreasonable at all that 1 or 2 completely non-technical cofounders could team up and learn Ruby on Rails or Django in a couple of months and put a viable product together. If you use an IaaS/PaaS system, Google or Amazon or whoever handles scalability problems for you - its literally as easy as moving a slider and paying more money. Why pay $230k a year for a "scalability/reliability engineer", when I could pay exponentially less to Google or AWS and not have to worry about anything? Even if those didn't exist, have you ever heard of a user facing web company failing because their tech stack wasn't efficient, because it was built by someone just average at coding who chose an easy to work with system with a fast dev cycle and not a "Full stack Javascript distributed scalability Guru"? No, because by the point where the efficiency of their tech stack became a problem, they would have enough capital to hire 10 engineers to rewrite the whole system in Scala or whatever flavor of the month stack tech bloggers happened to be writing about if they so chose.
If your company required some kind of technology that only someone with specialized skills could work with, I would understand. Robotics software? Sure. Biotech? Sure. Life-critical systems? Sure. But I won't be told that photo sharing and social media apps in this day and age require that much capital to build.
And networking? It seems to be that tech, is one of the fields in which this matters less than others to build a successful company, which is why it attracts so many of the engineer types who hate dealing with bullshit. They don't want to deal with bureaucracies and market analysis, they just want to build awesome stuff. I'm certainly not saying it doesn't matter at all, but I find it hard to believe that people would sell away stakes in their companies just for "networking opportunities".
Google was unlike these companies, in that the product was unique in both idea and technical implementation. The idea was original - organizing search results by relevancy, and the algorithm behind the PageRank implementation required a bit of high level math. The actual engine was implemented in C++, not exactly the easiest language to work with. But like I said, Google was pretty much bootstrapped until they really did need the money. They didn't immediately raise millions prelaunch and headhunt the best engineers in the valley. The founders were bright CS people who built their thing, ran out of a garage, and solved problems on their own for as long as they could. When they received their first investment they hadn't even incorporated yet - they had to go file the papers and wait a week before depositing the money in an account. It would seem that the average founder has gone from being the type who is a tinkerer primarily interested in tech and doing stuff that hasn't been done before(think Sergey and Larry, Bill Gates, Wozniak, Paul Graham, Zuckerberg)- but with a side interest in business, now to the type who is primarily interested in business and sees tech only as a means to an end, and raising as much capital as possible and throwing it at developers and marketing people as a means to achieve that end. I don't mean this to sound condescending or whatever, I'm just trying to come up with reasons here.
Re: Winter Is Probably Coming Soon
#67Earlier quoted context omitted.
You can still put money in an index fund (e.g. anything from Vanguard) and get reasonable returns (better than most investors at least).
You can, but many investors are concerned about the stock market as a whole being overpriced. "Bonds are overpriced, Commodities are overpriced, Equities are overpriced, and Real Estate is overpriced. When rates go up they will all tank." Of course this is a first world problem. I used to say "Invest in your own human capital" but I took a look at the cost of private schools nowadays, and they're overpriced too. :-)
Re: Winter Is Probably Coming Soon
#68Of course a VC does not want you wasting his money and will finger wag all day long to try to make entrepreneurs behave. However his analysis focusing on isolated economic indicators is missing the forest for the trees (presumably willfully). Why is money cheap? Because investors have no place to put their money. The accelerating consolidation of wealth within the super rich (ie. the 0.01% funding VCs) and the pathet…
The majority of funding for the VC industry does not come from the super rich, but rather endowments, pensions, and other forms of institutional capital. These institutions do have many other markets where they invest their capital, most of which are more attractive on a risk-adjusted basis when taking into consideration the illiquid nature of venture capital as well as the high fees.
Re: Winter Is Probably Coming Soon
#69Earlier quoted context omitted.
You can, but many investors are concerned about the stock market as a whole being overpriced. "Bonds are overpriced, Commodities are overpriced, Equities are overpriced, and Real Estate is overpriced. When rates go up they will all tank." Of course this is a first world problem. I used to say "Invest in your own human capital" but I took a look at the cost of private schools nowadays, and they're overpriced too. :-)
I'd hate to see what those investors think of paying 10 billion for SnapChat...
Re: Winter Is Probably Coming Soon
#70Earlier quoted context omitted.
The majority of funding for the VC industry does not come from the super rich, but rather endowments, pensions, and other forms of institutional capital. These institutions do have many other markets where they invest their capital, most of which are more attractive on a risk-adjusted basis when taking into consideration the illiquid nature of venture capital as well as the high fees.
You sound like you know a lot more about the VC industry than me, but if what you say is true, why is there still so much VC money flowing?
Total VC investment through Q2 2014 is on the order of $22.7B [1], so if this continues, the VC industry is likely to invest about $45B through the year of 2014.
At the same time, the total market cap of the S&P 500 is $17.5 trillion [2], and it's increased by about $2T so far this year [3]. Total daily volume in the S&P 500 is $1.4B [3]; in 3 weeks, more money changes hands in the S&P 500 than it does in 2 quarters for the VC industry.
[1] http://www.nvca.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=articl...
[2] https://www.google.com/search?q=s%26p+500+market+cap
[3] https://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXSP%3A.INX&ei=2qMcVJCGG...