I'm always amazed by stories of startups that generate almost no profit and yet burn millions of VC dollars. Yes, I know that VC count on that 1 out of 100 invested in companies to generate profit larger than all the other combined, but still it's a bit ridiculous and in my opinion not healthy for the industry. It's a different story if you've a bootstrapped, profitable company and want to boost the growth - you can…
Winter Is Probably Coming Soon
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Re: Winter Is Probably Coming Soon
#32I feel like we've heard this before: 2008: http://techcrunch.com/2008/10/10/sequoia-capitals-56-slide-p... 2011: http://www.startuplessonslearned.com/2011/08/winter-is-comin... And it makes me think of 2 things: 1. "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." 2. The way large companies use layoffs not to actually cut the total number of jobs, but to cut deadwood. This seems like the VC equiv…
But the 2008 slide deck was right . It was comically easy to hire great people for a few years after Lehman. Rents were going down in San Francisco. SOMA wasn't a ghost town, exactly, but it was pretty empty compared to now. The bust was real. The rapid recovery in tech has more-or-less paralleled the rapid recovery in the stock market as a whole. There's no lesson to be learned from cynicism here, except that the te…
Re: Winter Is Probably Coming Soon
#33I'm always amazed by stories of startups that generate almost no profit and yet burn millions of VC dollars. Yes, I know that VC count on that 1 out of 100 invested in companies to generate profit larger than all the other combined, but still it's a bit ridiculous and in my opinion not healthy for the industry. It's a different story if you've a bootstrapped, profitable company and want to boost the growth - you can…
Some types of companies are harder to bootstrap in a way that is profitable from day 1, also the risk for a small bootstrapped company is they just prove the market for a VC backed juggernaut to come in and eat them alive.
Re: Winter Is Probably Coming Soon
#34Earlier quoted context omitted.
Some types of companies are harder to bootstrap in a way that is profitable from day 1, also the risk for a small bootstrapped company is they just prove the market for a VC backed juggernaut to come in and eat them alive.
Yes, some types of companies need time to provide value, but in my opinion the vast majority of VC funded companies could easily be bootstrapped. I don't deny that the vision of receiving a fat check and being able to rent a beautiful office, buy the best equipment and hire a big team is tempting, but it's something for something - the main goal of VCs is to grow like crazy, without a sentiment. A bootstrapped compan…
Re: Winter Is Probably Coming Soon
#35I hope so. Currently, VC money is a horrible market distortion that encourages what is basically dumping - companies with good products and actual business models being starved of oxygen by cashed-up competitors who simply give products away for free. I'm not even sure of the economic term for it but wouldn't be surprised if it's illegal in a few years, after we've gotten more sophisticated.
I used to think it was illegal under the anti-competitive regulations, but just based on proliferation of the strategy I'm not so sure anymore.
Re: Winter Is Probably Coming Soon
#36Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, some types of companies need time to provide value, but in my opinion the vast majority of VC funded companies could easily be bootstrapped. I don't deny that the vision of receiving a fat check and being able to rent a beautiful office, buy the best equipment and hire a big team is tempting, but it's something for something - the main goal of VCs is to grow like crazy, without a sentiment. A bootstrapped compan…
Sure, but by the time they have folded you're already out of business!
Re: Winter Is Probably Coming Soon
#37Earlier quoted context omitted.
But the 2008 slide deck was right . It was comically easy to hire great people for a few years after Lehman. Rents were going down in San Francisco. SOMA wasn't a ghost town, exactly, but it was pretty empty compared to now. The bust was real. The rapid recovery in tech has more-or-less paralleled the rapid recovery in the stock market as a whole. There's no lesson to be learned from cynicism here, except that the te…
The question is whether the slide-deck was self-fulfilling because it came from Sequoia.
Re: Winter Is Probably Coming Soon
#38You likely won't be able to generate real revenue on something whose value is so immediately replicable or replaceable.
There needs to be a caveat to "build something people want": there has to be some barrier so that others can't compete so easily. Customer and market understanding is one, and that's certainly helped. But again, the replication model, which will drive down profits for everyone, kicks in. Technical superiority is a possible solution, but most web/app products simply wouldn't benefit from this because their functionality is trivial.
Of course, there are exceptions. Unicorns. Things like Whatsapp, Twitter, and Salesforce come to mind. Obviously their initial products were replicable, but the winner-takes-all network effects (and eventual "platform dynamics") create that lock-in. For every one of them, 1000s of similar companies fail. The problem is when VC money is chasing those 1000s of likely-to-fail-I-might-do-it-too companies. They're more likely to fail than laundromats, but they're burning millions in an attempt to be those "winners". Easier than investing in clean energy though.
Fundamentally, as a society we need some technical advancement to create meaningful economic growth. We can't just keep advertising and selling the same stuff to each other. When a sector is running dry on innovation opportunities (i.e. webs/apps) maybe it's time to look elsewhere. Or stick around and wait for unicorns. Meh.
For now though, how people want to misappropriate (in my opinion) their money is their choice, as long as most of this doesn't get dumped on John Smith from The Public like it did in 2000.
Re: Winter Is Probably Coming Soon
#39I think it's fair to say that this analysis applies better to web/app companies. There's just a fundamental problem with raising (and burning) millions trying to grow a site for inbound marketing, or an app for dating, or what have you, even though these are great ideas and things that people want: You likely won't be able to generate real revenue on something whose value is so immediately replicable or replaceable.…
Re: Winter Is Probably Coming Soon
#40Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's not a bad idea for people who go through them and successfully get jobs before the crunch comes. As long as they can do the job and don't get laid off, they're way better off than they would be otherwise. (And even if they do get laid off, they're probably better off than they would be otherwise - they have tangible skills that will likely be in demand for a while.) It could be very bad for the boot camps themse…
Yep. And even more to the point, there were a lot of people who were hired as "webmasters", and knew little more than some HTML. Those people were cut almost immediately when the crash came. It's not even a metaphor -- almost the exact same scenario played itself out in the late 90s. We know how it ends. It amazes me how resistant we are to learning from experience.
Its been going on for a long time now, it doesn't phase me anymore.Its not just in technology, but in every other sector in the economy. A fine example is Wall Street.