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Winter Is Probably Coming Soon

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11–20 of 75 posts

Re: Winter Is Probably Coming Soon

#11

Will any of the bootcamps survive, do you think? It seems unlikely given the stories I've read here, lsc hiring a former coworker (his technical superior) out of a sandwich shop, or tptacek having to move from San Francisco to Ann Arbor because there were no jobs going in San Francisco for someone who co-founded a large ISP and had lots of security publications. I'm sure it'll be bad enough in the US but I pity the g…

What about the bootcamps? A friend of mine is considering enrolling in one. Is it a bad idea?

Re: Winter Is Probably Coming Soon

#12
post #10

I feel like we've heard this before: 2008: http://techcrunch.com/2008/10/10/sequoia-capitals-56-slide-p... 2011: http://www.startuplessonslearned.com/2011/08/winter-is-comin... And it makes me think of 2 things: 1. "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." 2. The way large companies use layoffs not to actually cut the total number of jobs, but to cut deadwood. This seems like the VC equiv…

You point out that we've been hearing VCs belly ache about the high prices they've been paying for many years, but I don't see how it follows that the market is irrational, but even if it is, in that case it'd make it easier to remain solvent. Which directly contradicts your second thought.

Re: Winter Is Probably Coming Soon

#13
I'm guessing it's in 18-24 months. Companies are still getting acquired left and right and BigCo still has cash to spend (especially Yahoo, Google, Facebook and Twitter). As long as BigCo is acquiring, VCs will continue pumping.

Re: Winter Is Probably Coming Soon

#14
post #8

I don't think there is an overall tech bubble like 1999, but there may indeed be smaller scale bubbles in overheated or overhyped sectors. There are two areas of worry from what I see. One is free apps and services with high burn and no good path to revenue. Another is what looks to me like a mini-bubble in startups that cater to other startups. Scene-centric inbreeding like that is probably more worrisome than the o…

[deleted]

Re: Winter Is Probably Coming Soon

#16
post #10

I feel like we've heard this before: 2008: http://techcrunch.com/2008/10/10/sequoia-capitals-56-slide-p... 2011: http://www.startuplessonslearned.com/2011/08/winter-is-comin... And it makes me think of 2 things: 1. "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." 2. The way large companies use layoffs not to actually cut the total number of jobs, but to cut deadwood. This seems like the VC equiv…

You point out that we've been hearing VCs belly ache about the high prices they've been paying for many years, but I don't see how it follows that the market is irrational, but even if it is, in that case it'd make it easier to remain solvent. Which directly contradicts your second thought.

"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" is a common saying in the financial world: it means that even if you're right that assets are overvalued, there's no guarantee that they'll come back down to earth in any reasonable length of time, and so betting against the market can often be a losing gamble even when you're right.

In some senses the market is never "irrational", because a security is worth exactly what someone will pay for it, and so by definition it always has the right price. In other senses, the market is always "irrational", because its price is determined by the emotions of its participants and not any sort of rational analysis. (The whole reason markets are efficient is that they average out the misjudgments of many members, such that those who miss the mark too much drop out and cease to become participants.)

I think Owen's point is that the sky is always falling. Bubble psychology and boom/bust cycles is a natural part of the operation of markets.

Re: Winter Is Probably Coming Soon

#17
post #7

I hope so. Currently, VC money is a horrible market distortion that encourages what is basically dumping - companies with good products and actual business models being starved of oxygen by cashed-up competitors who simply give products away for free. I'm not even sure of the economic term for it but wouldn't be surprised if it's illegal in a few years, after we've gotten more sophisticated.

I used to think it was illegal under the anti-competitive regulations, but just based on proliferation of the strategy I'm not so sure anymore.

Re: Winter Is Probably Coming Soon

#18

Will any of the bootcamps survive, do you think? It seems unlikely given the stories I've read here, lsc hiring a former coworker (his technical superior) out of a sandwich shop, or tptacek having to move from San Francisco to Ann Arbor because there were no jobs going in San Francisco for someone who co-founded a large ISP and had lots of security publications. I'm sure it'll be bad enough in the US but I pity the g…

What about the bootcamps? A friend of mine is considering enrolling in one. Is it a bad idea?

It's not a bad idea for people who go through them and successfully get jobs before the crunch comes. As long as they can do the job and don't get laid off, they're way better off than they would be otherwise. (And even if they do get laid off, they're probably better off than they would be otherwise - they have tangible skills that will likely be in demand for a while.)

It could be very bad for the boot camps themselves. The reason they have a business is because the demand for software engineers is red-hot right now; much of this demand comes from the easy availability of venture/seed money. Think what happened to telecoms, ISPs, and infrastructure providers at the end of the dot-com boom. It was not unusual to go from thriving repeat business to absolutely zero customers in six months.

Re: Winter Is Probably Coming Soon

#19
Can somebody explain to me why every startup company(or at least every one that articles are written about) feels the need to raise as much VC as possible ASAP? There are so many options for developing scalable systems relatively easily and the cost of running an entirely web/software based company(read: 90% of the hot startups) today is comically low, especially with pay what you use PaaS/IaaS systems like those offered by Google and Amazon. If your product crashes and burns, you will be out a couple thousand dollars MAX + whatever time and effort you put in. If your product is successful, by the time running it on one of these platforms gets too expensive to pay for out of pocket(meaning you have a lot of users running up bandwidth/infrastructure costs), I'd guess that VC firms would be coming to you rather than you to them, and you would basically have more authority to dictate investment terms, and wouldn't have to slog around pitching to firm after firm - most of who will probably reject early stage investment in anything that isn't some rehashed social media dreck made by the white boys from Stanford. I've never pitched to a VC firm, but I don't believe that any pitch is better than "Hey my thing has 10,000 fucking users and we get a metric shitton of new signups every day". I don't think they would care if you were a hobo clown from Latvia who dropped out of elementary school if your product had users and pull, they'd throw money at you since they all want to jump in on the next big thing.

This confuses me as it would seem to be a counter trend to what I'd expect based on what stuff was like a few years ago, when infrastructure costs were much higher, there were much less options, and development was more difficult. Google and Facebook - both of which are practically the model now for successful web companies - were fairly bootstrapped(run out of garages and dorm rooms by a few friends who had scraped together money from friends and family) before getting VC funding, which they got after their products had received somewhat widespread hype/adoption. I don't even think it would have been difficult to raise money or make VC connections before the product even launched for these people, they were practically the definition of the white boys from Stanford - but they didn't. The founders of both of those companies still retain massive shares and control in them compared to what you would expect from almost any other type of company of their calibre. Neither of them had to resort to advertising before their companies got big. The excuse that seems to be given is that by getting VC you don't have to worry about profits and paying costs for a while and you can just focus purely on the product, but as I said before, the costs are minimal - if you had even a small amount of savings or hit a family member up for a loan, you could run for quite a while on Google App Engine and such and not really have to worry about cost. If your founders are even remotely technical, I don't see how you would need more staff members in your early stages, successful web/software companies love to brag about how early on their team consisted of 3 people who worked a million hours a week on the product subsisting on nothing but cocaine and melon rinds because they were so dedicated to the company. As a person who I guess would be considered technical(though if you ask me I'm just a monkey who doesn't have a clue what they are doing and just bangs rocks together and hacks at stuff till something working comes out), I simply don't see the appeal of begging a bunch of of suits - most of whom probably don't know a shit about computers - for venture funding, and having to sell large stakes of your company to get it when you don't absolutely need it at the time.

The only reason I would postulate for this trend is an increasing amount of non-technical founders who need to pay for developers to make and maintain their product, but don't want to give these developers significant equity in the company. Almost all of the cofounders of Google and Facebook were highly technical and very driven and intelligent from what I can see, so I could easily believe that they were able to chug along on their own for a while without hiring more technical staff. I've put a couple of fairly popular and highly trafficked web projects(nothing huge, current one pushes about 2TB of bandwidth a day from 30k visitors, and costs about $100 a month to run on a dedicated server) together with some friends and am currently learning iOS dev, and I don't believe its a stretch at all to think that me and a buddy could build something like Snapchat or Instagram in a couple of weeks and throw it up on App Engine.

I know almost nothing about finance and haven't ever managed or worked at a for really reals startup, so let me know if I'm way off here. I would just like to get some people's perspectives on this. Sorry for the rant.

Re: Winter Is Probably Coming Soon

#20
post #10

I feel like we've heard this before: 2008: http://techcrunch.com/2008/10/10/sequoia-capitals-56-slide-p... 2011: http://www.startuplessonslearned.com/2011/08/winter-is-comin... And it makes me think of 2 things: 1. "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." 2. The way large companies use layoffs not to actually cut the total number of jobs, but to cut deadwood. This seems like the VC equiv…

But the 2008 slide deck was right. It was comically easy to hire great people for a few years after Lehman. Rents were going down in San Francisco. SOMA wasn't a ghost town, exactly, but it was pretty empty compared to now. The bust was real.

The rapid recovery in tech has more-or-less paralleled the rapid recovery in the stock market as a whole. There's no lesson to be learned from cynicism here, except that the tech industry probably never paid the full price for the last crash, because the "fix" for that was flooding the market with cheap capital, which makes risky investments look reasonable.

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