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Playboy Interview: Steve Jobs (1985)

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Re: Playboy Interview: Steve Jobs (1985)

#51

Post by lawnchair_larry »

coldtea wrote: post #28
tdicola wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it really that prescient? By 1985 there were lots of BBSes you could dial into and connect with people from across the nation. In fact what would become America Online was just starting out as a BBS. The internet was available at most colleges, and tools like email and usenet were in full use. I think his statement is like someone right now saying electric cars will be a huge thing in the future.

> Is it really that prescient? By 1985 there were lots of BBSes you could dial into and connect with people from across the nation. Yeah, it's really that prescient. The fact that BBS existed and there was some networking in colleges is irrelevant. Most people didn't even think a PC would be important for everybody, much less internet. It was seen as a totally geek / big business thing. Read how the media pundits and…

I recall it being fairly obvious to everyone who was familiar with them that things were going that direction. It was prevalent enough that Neuromancer pretty much nailed it, a year before this interview, despite Gibson not having ever touched a computer.

Shockwave Rider covered it in 1975, and described a network worm.

Re: Playboy Interview: Steve Jobs (1985)

#52

Post by mpweiher »

ekianjo wrote: post #39

> Jobs: my personal feeling is that we are going to enter sort of a computer Dark Ages for about 20 years. Once IBM gains control of a market sector, they almost always stop innovation. They prevent innovation from happening. I'm very glad that IBM and its compatible equivalents won the market, we would certainly be in much Darker Ages should Apple have won the desktop war, with their close-minded view on the world a…

Hmm...the prediction came through fairly precisely.

Re: Playboy Interview: Steve Jobs (1985)

#53

Post by mpweiher »

adamnemecek wrote: post #38
treblig wrote: post #33

Jobs, conceptually articulating what would become the Internet in 1985: "The most compelling reason for most people to buy a computer for the home will be to link it into a nationwide communications network. We’re just in the beginning stages of what will be a truly remarkable breakthrough for most people—as remarkable as the telephone."

Pff that will never take off http://www.newsweek.com/clifford-stoll-why-web-wont-be-nirva...

Wonderful link!

"...no online database will replace your daily newspaper..."

"Newsweek now back in print!"

Re: Playboy Interview: Steve Jobs (1985)

#54

Post by lawnchair_larry »

urs2102 wrote: post #14

> Jobs: I think that the scale of the business has gotten large enough so that it’s going to be very difficult for anyone to successfully launch anything new. Playboy: No more billion-dollar companies hatched in garages? Jobs: No, I’m afraid not in computers. And this puts a responsibility on Apple, because if there’s going to be innovation in this industry, it’ll come from us. It’s the only way we can compete with t…

Looks like he couldn't have been more wrong on that one. Now we have messaging apps and minecraft selling for billions.

Re: Playboy Interview: Steve Jobs (1985)

#55

Post by mpweiher »

jobebob wrote: post #49

> "The developments will be in making the products more and more portable, networking them, getting out laser printers, getting out shared data bases, getting out more communications ability, maybe the merging of the telephone and the personal computer." Looks like the iPhone was in his mind for a long time.

That's mostly just Alan Kay's Dynabook from 1968 IIRC. And the networking and laser printers etc. were the "Interim Dynabooks" aka Altos + networked laser printers (Ethernet) he saw at PARC.

Re: Playboy Interview: Steve Jobs (1985)

#56

Post by duncanawoods »

takatin wrote: post #31
AndrewKemendo wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We weren’t going to go out and do market research. We just wanted to build the best thing we could build. So is this only a good response because apple succeeded so well or should they have done market research and done even better? I ask because the logic for every startup is do market research (now called validation) in some fashion - even if it is the landing page approach. I guess I am asking, prior to the succes…

Coming up with products is a bit like coming up with songs or paintings. Market research won't get you Van Gogh's Starry Night or any of the Beatles' songs. Instead it gives you autotune as music and photo filters as art. If you need to come with a genuinely once-in-a-lifetime product, music, painting or anything creative, it has to come from satisficing a basic need in a unique way (often with a personal touch i.e.,…

"satisficing a basic need"

Do you mean this? I can see you might or might not. To satisfice would mean stopping at the first minimally acceptable solution to save time and effort. To invoke art and once-in-a-life-time product seems to suggest you want the opposite concept - optimising i.e. to strive relentlessly towards the maximal solution despite the extra time and effort it takes.

Re: Playboy Interview: Steve Jobs (1985)

#57

Post by ekianjo »

mpweiher wrote: post #52
ekianjo wrote: post #39

> Jobs: my personal feeling is that we are going to enter sort of a computer Dark Ages for about 20 years. Once IBM gains control of a market sector, they almost always stop innovation. They prevent innovation from happening. I'm very glad that IBM and its compatible equivalents won the market, we would certainly be in much Darker Ages should Apple have won the desktop war, with their close-minded view on the world a…

Hmm...the prediction came through fairly precisely.

The PC has been a haven for innovation on the desktop, in case you failed to notice. Hardware wise the PC surpassed the Macs in power and price in no time. Precisely because it was an open platform.

Re: Playboy Interview: Steve Jobs (1985)

#58

Post by fsniper »

increment_i wrote: post #21
urs2102 wrote: post #14

> Jobs: I think that the scale of the business has gotten large enough so that it’s going to be very difficult for anyone to successfully launch anything new. Playboy: No more billion-dollar companies hatched in garages? Jobs: No, I’m afraid not in computers. And this puts a responsibility on Apple, because if there’s going to be innovation in this industry, it’ll come from us. It’s the only way we can compete with t…

I'm thinking innovative tech that relieves people's pain could be promising. I'm talking in a literal sense, not the marketing lingo "find the pain!" sense. For example, I stand a lot at work and my feet are throbbing right now from working over the weekend. I would pay good money for an elegantly designed device of some sort that would soothe this pain without me having to really do anything. No matter what walk of…

May be you should see http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/08/28/chairless...

Re: Playboy Interview: Steve Jobs (1985)

#59

Post by duncanawoods »

tdicola wrote: post #11
ddebernardy wrote: post #2

Quite prescient: > Jobs: The most compelling reason for most people to buy a computer for the home will be to link it into a nationwide communications network. We’re just in the beginning stages of what will be a truly remarkable breakthrough for most people—as remarkable as the telephone.

Is it really that prescient? By 1985 there were lots of BBSes you could dial into and connect with people from across the nation. In fact what would become America Online was just starting out as a BBS. The internet was available at most colleges, and tools like email and usenet were in full use. I think his statement is like someone right now saying electric cars will be a huge thing in the future.

I agree. Networked computers were totally part of the popular imagination. Job's quote is after Wargames, Scanners, Tron etc.

The part of Job's quote that can be said to be innovative is he said "for the home" when most at the time were assuming "for the office".

I recently watched a BBC Horizon documentary on microprocessors filmed in 1977 and was very impressed with how they described the world we live in today. They clearly stated the exciting bit was enabling information networks so I don't think the possibilities of internet-like-things was ever in much doubt.

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