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The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

wired.com

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Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#61

Post by joesmo »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #23

Going 'meta' for a moment, this is a tragedy of huge proportions, the question I have been considering is whether or not it is even possible to avoid? Updates from MSF which highlight the level of mistrust and superstition amongst the infected population, where people hide their sick relatives from isolation wards and take them back to their village. We cannot exactly put a giant fence around the place (and not that…

I think you bring up some good points and I don't mean to discount the moral dilemma here, but in reality such moral considerations are hardly ever considered. I don't think the article is suggesting invasion, but if that was the best solution, I don't see a problem with it if it prevents an epidemic or worse, a world wide pandemic(especially if it mutates into airborne transmission). After all, the US has invaded many other countries for absolutely no reason. It'd be hard to justify not invading at this point given our history if this was indeed thought to be the optimal solution. We've invaded at least three countries illegally and started major wars but we ate considering the ethical implications of stopping a pandemic? I suppose such moral questions become quite easy once moral decisions have been discounted in favor of immoral ones repeatedly in the past.

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#62

Post by Afforess »

lotsofmangos wrote: post #27
ChuckMcM wrote: post #23

Going 'meta' for a moment, this is a tragedy of huge proportions, the question I have been considering is whether or not it is even possible to avoid? Updates from MSF which highlight the level of mistrust and superstition amongst the infected population, where people hide their sick relatives from isolation wards and take them back to their village. We cannot exactly put a giant fence around the place (and not that…

"what moral authority allows us to overrule that belief?" Statistics on mortality.

Let's just say not all of us believe in Utilitarian theories of Ethics.

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#63

Post by lotsofmangos »

Afforess wrote: post #62
lotsofmangos wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"what moral authority allows us to overrule that belief?" Statistics on mortality.

Let's just say not all of us believe in Utilitarian theories of Ethics.

Ethical theory is not much use once you are dead.

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#64

Post by joe_the_user »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #23

Going 'meta' for a moment, this is a tragedy of huge proportions, the question I have been considering is whether or not it is even possible to avoid? Updates from MSF which highlight the level of mistrust and superstition amongst the infected population, where people hide their sick relatives from isolation wards and take them back to their village. We cannot exactly put a giant fence around the place (and not that…

Now, both countries' government are already engaging in the rather extreme preventative measures that's your talking about. But both also lack basic, basic supplies. It's hard to know whether this event can controlled. It seems obvious it would be more likely to be controlled if more resources are flowing in.

And while I'm pretty cynical as rule, it seems cynicism and despair at this point could actually hurt people.

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#65

Post by rdtsc »

tokenadult wrote: post #14

The author of the article kindly submitted here, which I found quite interesting and informative, notes that she used to write for the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) based at my alma mater university. Sure enough, CIDRAP has its own current write-up on ebola[1] that is a good supplement to the information in the Wired article we are discussing here. "The possibility of an airborne-transmis…

How hard is it to predict (if possible at all) the mutation based on the virus type and particular strain (maybe somehow computationally simulate or mutate it) ?

In general do mutations follow probability distributions that are known?

And then let's say someone wanted to cause mutations that would make it airborne. Could they do it?

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#66

Post by alexbecker »

rdtsc wrote: post #65
tokenadult wrote: post #14

The author of the article kindly submitted here, which I found quite interesting and informative, notes that she used to write for the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) based at my alma mater university. Sure enough, CIDRAP has its own current write-up on ebola[1] that is a good supplement to the information in the Wired article we are discussing here. "The possibility of an airborne-transmis…

How hard is it to predict (if possible at all) the mutation based on the virus type and particular strain (maybe somehow computationally simulate or mutate it) ? In general do mutations follow probability distributions that are known? And then let's say someone wanted to cause mutations that would make it airborne. Could they do it?

I have to imagine that the answer to all those questions is "no". There are simply too many variables at play, and poorly understood ones at that.

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#67

Post by techdragon »

joesmo wrote: post #61
ChuckMcM wrote: post #23

Going 'meta' for a moment, this is a tragedy of huge proportions, the question I have been considering is whether or not it is even possible to avoid? Updates from MSF which highlight the level of mistrust and superstition amongst the infected population, where people hide their sick relatives from isolation wards and take them back to their village. We cannot exactly put a giant fence around the place (and not that…

I think you bring up some good points and I don't mean to discount the moral dilemma here, but in reality such moral considerations are hardly ever considered. I don't think the article is suggesting invasion, but if that was the best solution, I don't see a problem with it if it prevents an epidemic or worse, a world wide pandemic(especially if it mutates into airborne transmission). After all, the US has invaded ma…

And given the level of equipment and training the military have with regard to doing their job while wearing full Nuclear/Biological/Chemical protection. I would honestly prefer that if the situation escalates and we see confirmation of airborne transmission, the situation be dealt with by prompt deployment of fully NBC trained military medical units and sufficient security forces to ensure that whatever those doctors say is law within the quarantine.

I do my best not to be a knee jerk reaction person, but an airborne ebola strain, is beyond question a deadly deadly threat. Ebola has an incubation period, there is a period of time where you are infectious, before its obvious, and if airborne your very presence places anyone in the room with you now has 50/50 odds of living. This isn't SARS, this isn't Spanish Flu. This is quite possibly the closest we can get to a disease threat strait out of a zombie movie. I don't feel we should violate the human rights of everyone in that region, but this is one of those things where its squarely a "The needs of the many, outweigh the needs of the few or the one." scenario. So if the army doctor says "that guy has ebola, stop him from running away", I kinda feel (presuming an airborne ebola) that the situation may (depending on how far away he's getting, indoor or outdoor, etc) warrant lethal force.

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#68

Post by joe_the_user »

joesmo wrote: post #61
ChuckMcM wrote: post #23

Going 'meta' for a moment, this is a tragedy of huge proportions, the question I have been considering is whether or not it is even possible to avoid? Updates from MSF which highlight the level of mistrust and superstition amongst the infected population, where people hide their sick relatives from isolation wards and take them back to their village. We cannot exactly put a giant fence around the place (and not that…

I think you bring up some good points and I don't mean to discount the moral dilemma here, but in reality such moral considerations are hardly ever considered. I don't think the article is suggesting invasion, but if that was the best solution, I don't see a problem with it if it prevents an epidemic or worse, a world wide pandemic(especially if it mutates into airborne transmission). After all, the US has invaded ma…

It's just ugly to see an eagerness to think about invasions when not even simple supplies are not coming through.

Liberian President, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf to Barack Obama: "I am being honest with you when I say that at this rate, we will never break the transmission chain and the virus will overwhelm us"

"The dilemma" of invasion and whatnot is beside the point. The Liberian state is desperate. Johnson Sirleaf also recently fired 10 government ministers who had fled the country. Any nation with resources that wants to take over? The Liberian state would eager for the help. Things are that bad.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/13/world/africa/liberian-pres...

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#69

Post by learc83 »

philsnow wrote: post #58
privong wrote: post #57

> in particular by bringing in local residents who have survived Ebola, and are no longer at risk of infection. I have seen this several places over the past week or two – is it actually true that people who survive Ebola are not at risk of re-infection? I can see where that might be true shortly after recovery (i.e., due to there still being antibodies in one's system), but how long would the immunity last?

Antibodies generally last a very long time [citation needed], but would they be useful against such a rapidly-changing pathogen ?

Ebola isn't rapidly changing. At least in comparison to a virus that does mutate rapidly like influenza.

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#70

Post by dreamcompiler »

privong wrote: post #59
philsnow wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Antibodies generally last a very long time [citation needed], but would they be useful against such a rapidly-changing pathogen ?

> but would they be useful against such a rapidly-changing pathogen ? Does that explain why people are not immune from the flu after having it once – the version they have antibodies to is not the same as the mutated version which circulates later?

Yes. This is why you have to get a flu shot every year: The flu virus is different every year. The same rapid-mutation phenomenon happens with the so-called "common" cold: Having a cold once provides no immunity to prevent you from getting one again.
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