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The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

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21–30 of 176 posts

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#21

My fear is that we're not able to stop a simple stomach flu which is spread almost the same way, through bodily liquids, so I don't think it will be easy to stop once it hits first world countries like most people currently assume...

Wait a minute, when was the last time that the stomach flu was an epidemic?

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#22
post #2

This should be obvious to anybody who knows about geometric growth. The only time you can really stop Ebola without a cheap and easily-available cure is now while it's small. As it grows, its rate of growth will increase, and it will quickly spread to every vulnerable area.

No, R will stay the same. Or decrease as the population becomes more exposed.

He's taking about the number of people infected per unit of time, which will indeed increase over time if the reproductive number stays larger than 1.

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#23
Going 'meta' for a moment, this is a tragedy of huge proportions, the question I have been considering is whether or not it is even possible to avoid?

Updates from MSF which highlight the level of mistrust and superstition amongst the infected population, where people hide their sick relatives from isolation wards and take them back to their village. We cannot exactly put a giant fence around the place (and not that this would be a reasonable goal anyway).

Do we invade these countries and force our will on them in order to prevent a humanitarian tragedy? What gives us that right? What gives anyone that right? To someone who is not sick, forcing them from their village, for forcing them to stay in their village violates their basic human rights, and yet it is for their own good, but if they don't believe that, what moral authority allows us to overrule that belief?

As you can see I struggle with the challenge of imposing a solution on these people, knowing that without aggressive actions tens of thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands of them will die. While explaining to someone who doesn't understand the virus, or the danger, who undergoes forced relocation to a quarantine camp and is never sick during the outbreak, that they were in very real danger from this thing they do not believe in.

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#25
post #21

My fear is that we're not able to stop a simple stomach flu which is spread almost the same way, through bodily liquids, so I don't think it will be easy to stop once it hits first world countries like most people currently assume...

Wait a minute, when was the last time that the stomach flu was an epidemic?

It's frequently a public health issue. Once in a while a school will just close for a few days. Not the same ramifications as Ebola though.

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#26

Going 'meta' for a moment, this is a tragedy of huge proportions, the question I have been considering is whether or not it is even possible to avoid? Updates from MSF which highlight the level of mistrust and superstition amongst the infected population, where people hide their sick relatives from isolation wards and take them back to their village. We cannot exactly put a giant fence around the place (and not that…

This episode of Frontline is informative as to the situation:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/ebola-outbreak/

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#27

Going 'meta' for a moment, this is a tragedy of huge proportions, the question I have been considering is whether or not it is even possible to avoid? Updates from MSF which highlight the level of mistrust and superstition amongst the infected population, where people hide their sick relatives from isolation wards and take them back to their village. We cannot exactly put a giant fence around the place (and not that…

"what moral authority allows us to overrule that belief?"

Statistics on mortality.

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#29

Going 'meta' for a moment, this is a tragedy of huge proportions, the question I have been considering is whether or not it is even possible to avoid? Updates from MSF which highlight the level of mistrust and superstition amongst the infected population, where people hide their sick relatives from isolation wards and take them back to their village. We cannot exactly put a giant fence around the place (and not that…

Perhaps we could quarantine air & sea travel.

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#30
post #29

Going 'meta' for a moment, this is a tragedy of huge proportions, the question I have been considering is whether or not it is even possible to avoid? Updates from MSF which highlight the level of mistrust and superstition amongst the infected population, where people hide their sick relatives from isolation wards and take them back to their village. We cannot exactly put a giant fence around the place (and not that…

Perhaps we could quarantine air & sea travel.

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