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The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

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Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#2

Post by Pxtl »

This should be obvious to anybody who knows about geometric growth. The only time you can really stop Ebola without a cheap and easily-available cure is now while it's small. As it grows, its rate of growth will increase, and it will quickly spread to every vulnerable area.

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#4

Post by schrodingersCat »

I hate to be the cynical one here, but the countries with the power to stop this outbreak aren't going to start taking it seriously until more people from western nations start dying. It is true, it will be really bad if it is not stopped soon. Containing an outbreak of >5000 is out of the reach of most of the states affected by the disease and quite honestly very expensive for any nation. Once this spreads closer to Europe, watch people start to take more action. I hope it won't be too late

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#6

Post by StephanTLavavej »

hollerith wrote: post #3

Informative graph: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Diseased_Ebola_2014.png

The log graph is scarier: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2d/Evolutio...

(It's easier to recognize a straight line on a log scale, than to distinguish an exponential line on a linear scale from a line that's "merely" quadratic, say.)

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#7

Post by s4sharpie »

schrodingersCat wrote: post #4

I hate to be the cynical one here, but the countries with the power to stop this outbreak aren't going to start taking it seriously until more people from western nations start dying. It is true, it will be really bad if it is not stopped soon. Containing an outbreak of >5000 is out of the reach of most of the states affected by the disease and quite honestly very expensive for any nation. Once this spreads closer to…

There are massive global political ramifications that restrict the ability of those countries that do want to make a difference. As the article refers to, it is ultimately the UN that has the powers to essentially trample on a country's sovereignty (that is what you need to do to make a difference). The UN has been called a toothless tiger in many respects - this is another example where they can and should take a more proactive and aggressive stance. Only then can we comment on the actions of other Western nations.

The way that South Africa dealt with their AIDs epidemic (from a western perspective, true head in sand activity) is a case in point: despite many aggressive offers of help from western governments, the South African's continued their denial. To make a change would have required going against the government policy of the time. This is viewed legally as an invasion by an outside force.

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#9

Post by joe_the_user »

s4sharpie wrote: post #7
schrodingersCat wrote: post #4

I hate to be the cynical one here, but the countries with the power to stop this outbreak aren't going to start taking it seriously until more people from western nations start dying. It is true, it will be really bad if it is not stopped soon. Containing an outbreak of >5000 is out of the reach of most of the states affected by the disease and quite honestly very expensive for any nation. Once this spreads closer to…

There are massive global political ramifications that restrict the ability of those countries that do want to make a difference. As the article refers to, it is ultimately the UN that has the powers to essentially trample on a country's sovereignty (that is what you need to do to make a difference). The UN has been called a toothless tiger in many respects - this is another example where they can and should take a mo…

I am not sure what relation your (or the article's) talk of trampling sovereignty has to do with the present situation on the ground.

The articles I read describe the problematic issues being; a lack of running water in existing clinics, a lack of medical supplies, a lack of clinics and notably a lack of food everywhere - patients are escaping isolation in efforts to find food.

Liberian officials have pleaded for help in fairly abject terms (one official mentioned the possibly of nation ceasing to exist - I think that means they're worried). The details of what Western nations have done so far is fuzzy but it seems like there not been a sufficient rush to deliver these acutely needed supplies.

Sure, once the existing clinics have food, supplies and running water, parachuted in field clinics sound grand. There's no evidence I've seen that the Liberians would refuse these.

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#10

Post by csdrane »

StephanTLavavej wrote: post #6
hollerith wrote: post #3

Informative graph: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Diseased_Ebola_2014.png

The log graph is scarier: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2d/Evolutio... (It's easier to recognize a straight line on a log scale, than to distinguish an exponential line on a linear scale from a line that's "merely" quadratic, say.)

What do similar charts for prior outbreaks like?
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