Earlier quoted context omitted.
Of course, but that kind of shift isn't going to happen within 6 years (as parent comment suggests)
I think we will see self driving cars in regular use that do not require an attentive driver on the freeway within 6 years. I think self driving cars will put Uber drivers out of business in 10 to 20 years.
Uber Drivers “Strike” and Switch to Lyft Over Fares and Conditions
161–170 of 196 posts
Re: Uber Drivers “Strike” and Switch to Lyft Over Fares and Conditions
#162The really interesting story here is that if drivers are so willing to switch networks for better opportunities, there isn't a compelling reason for Uber to have the valuation that they do. The value of Uber isn't really in the tech or the app - it's in the networks of riders and drivers in each city. If each of those can be aggregated into some other kind of service, where Uber, Lyft, etc. are just providers of paym…
One thing to keep in mind, is that a "spontaneous pick-up of a new rider" workflow is very similar to a "switch rider to a new network" workflow. If the apps are designed to be rapidly downloaded over cellular/LTE then this could often be accomplished in the space of a single ride, facilitated by coinciding GPS information.
Re: Uber Drivers “Strike” and Switch to Lyft Over Fares and Conditions
#163The really interesting story here is that if drivers are so willing to switch networks for better opportunities, there isn't a compelling reason for Uber to have the valuation that they do. The value of Uber isn't really in the tech or the app - it's in the networks of riders and drivers in each city. If each of those can be aggregated into some other kind of service, where Uber, Lyft, etc. are just providers of paym…
I recently was in a Lyft where the driver was also an Uber driver. I don't know how rapidly he switched contexts (ride to ride, day to day, or something like surges). Does either company do anything to prevent this?
Something that would cause problems is if a driver was simultaneously accepting requests on one service while performing trips on another. I've had this happen as a user, and you just see the driver going the opposite direction for ten minutes while claiming to be 'on the way'.
Another problem might be cancellation rates; if a driver were online in multiple apps and got simultaneous requests, they would have to accept one and cancel the other. Acceptance rates are part of a driver's performance records on Lyft/Uber/etc. and declining lots of rides could get a driver's account deactivated.
Re: Uber Drivers “Strike” and Switch to Lyft Over Fares and Conditions
#164Re: Uber Drivers “Strike” and Switch to Lyft Over Fares and Conditions
#165Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is absolutely a large chunk of the rides-for-hire passenger population that is entirely mercenary in its affections. Some people are loyal Uber passengers or loyal Lyft passengers or whatever, but a lot of people are happy to go where the bargains are.
Some companies that serve as middlemen seem pretty resilient. For example, ebay and craigslist.
Re: Uber Drivers “Strike” and Switch to Lyft Over Fares and Conditions
#166Earlier quoted context omitted.
~3-5 years is way too soon. The technology might be ready but the governments (think regulations, traffic laws, car insurance companies, car manufacturers, etc etc etc ) in addition to the public (which is not ready either). Is going to take at least 10+ years for it to resemble something like you imagine it.
I agree that 3-5 years is a bit optimistic but I also bet that when it does happen it will transition far faster than we can imagine. You have a really nice set of aligned incentives here: - As a 'driver' I get a car that let's me free up large chunks of my time - As a company like Uber the driver 'input' to my model is now far more consistent, predictable, and inexpensive - As an insurance company I can start underc…
As a driver, you probably lose your job. Not with the 3-5 year out model, but the one that comes 10 years after that. Even with the 3-5 year model, suddenly the competition for your job becomes extremely tight and starts to focus on things like people skills and entertaining, since the automated car will be doing most of the "heavy lifting" most of the time in a way that is automated into a commodity.
As Uber, you save a lot of money but you also lose a lot of moat, it becomes much easier/cheaper for other companies to suddenly field a fleet of cars.
As a car insurance company things look really iffy for you, again not so much in the 3-5 year timeframe but a bit further out when the human is completely unnecessary since at that point the insurance will be more about insuring the companies making the cars and car software and less about personal insurance, which means there is still significant money to be made, but probably far less than now (if the safety of automated cars turns out to be as great as it should) and by far fewer players.
As a car manufacturer, you'll do well at the beginning but the eventual model of a networked driverless transportation system should require far fewer people to own fewer cars and still live as if they do own cars, which is a long term problem for you when you've built a business optimized to sell cars to broad market consumers on a 5-ish year cycle.
As a government you should, in an ideal world, be in pretty good shape for the reasons you outlined, but good luck dealing with the lobbyists from industries this may "disrupt".
I do think driverless cars are quite a bit closer than most people think, for a lot of reasons, I just think they are going to upset a lot of applecarts on the way in, which isn't necessarily a bad thing unless you're an applecart vendor.
Re: Uber Drivers “Strike” and Switch to Lyft Over Fares and Conditions
#167Earlier quoted context omitted.
Consequently, the cost of a ride will approach the level of direct costs like fuel and maintenance. There won't be much left for driver compensation or vehicle depreciation, much less a durable surplus for the network operator. Paradoxically for the disruptors, the way out of this trap is for Uber and Lyft to lobby for greater regulation, stringent requirements for insurance and liability, background checks, safety i…
Companies like Uber and Lyft operating without as stringent regulation as regular taxi companies is their main competitive advantage (AirBnB is in the same group). Taxi drivers have lobbied for years to build up the kind of economic protections they have from disappearing margins in a competitive marketplace, and consequently being a taxi driver meant you could make a middle class living without tortuous hours. Uber…
Re: Uber Drivers “Strike” and Switch to Lyft Over Fares and Conditions
#168Earlier quoted context omitted.
This. Basically while there are network effects in the sense that any provider (Uber, Lyft etc.) will need to have some critical mass before there are enough drivers and enough riders, both can subscribe to multiple providers and there is no long-term stickiness at the moment. In other words, this is not a winner take all market with FB/LinkedIn/Twitter type network stickiness and the overall market is still fair gam…
How would you say self-driving vehicles fit into this? Supposedly they're rolling out in ~3-5 years, and with self-driving vehicles, you no longer need the middle man managing a fleet of contractors. EDIT: I'm willing to me a Long Bet [1] with anyone regarding fully autonomous self driving vehicles in regular use in 6 years. [1] http://longbets.org/ ; http://longbets.org/rules/
You may as well pose it as "what if we invented teleportation?" Many of the end results are going to be similar.
Re: Uber Drivers “Strike” and Switch to Lyft Over Fares and Conditions
#169Earlier quoted context omitted.
Of course, but that kind of shift isn't going to happen within 6 years (as parent comment suggests)
I think we will see self driving cars in regular use that do not require an attentive driver on the freeway within 6 years. I think self driving cars will put Uber drivers out of business in 10 to 20 years.
Re: Uber Drivers “Strike” and Switch to Lyft Over Fares and Conditions
#170Earlier quoted context omitted.
The technology is not nearly ready. Not in a city. It's like flying drone delivery. Easy to demonstrate in a single controlled setting, but nearly impossible to actually implement in the real world.
It's hard for me to even imagine how a self-driving car could manage somewhere like large swaths of Manhattan where a certain amount of, umm, aggression is needed to make any forward progress. Though it will likely happen some day (probably multiple decades from now). As it is, I'd even settle for voice control on my phone that could reliably understand me.
They added a slight "aggression" back in 2011, if other cars aren't letting it out it starts pushing forwards a bit:
> Sometimes, however, the car has to be more "aggressive." When going through a four-way intersection, for example, it yields to other vehicles based on road rules; but if other cars don't reciprocate, it advances a bit to show to the other drivers its intention. Without programming that kind of behavior, Urmson said, it would be impossible for the robot car to drive in the real world.
http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/artificial-intel...
I really don't understand why people think small behavioural differences like that require decades of work. Things that humans find difficult and stressful are likely to be the things that are significantly easier when you have a reaction time measured in milliseconds and full 360 degree vision.