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China's Island Factory – New islands being made in disputed China Sea

bbc.co.uk

41–50 of 147 posts

Re: China's Island Factory – New islands being made in disputed China Sea

#41
post #33
post #20

I've watched with fascination as the Japanese Senkaku islands slowly and gradually came to be labeled 'disputed' in the western media, after China's recent claims. It seems like China has figured out a way to hack the media (the free media outside of China, I mean -- the government there obviously has root on Chinese TV and newspapers). Japanese ownership of this territory is basically as settled under international…

In a straight up military conflict the world ends. People are idiots though, so I guess that will happen at some point.

Not necessarily true. Not even probably true. The nuclear-armed USA has invaded a number of smaller and weaker countries over the past decades. China has also attacked several neighbors, though in a less balls-out manner. Armageddon did not ensue.

The scariest scenario in Asia right now is: China attacks Japan (e.g. invades the Senkakus, or even accidentally kills some Japanese soldier in one of China's frequent reckless acts of attempted intimidation, like flying dangerously close), the Japan retaliates, the China escalates, then USA intervenes, and somehow USA and China end up in direct armed conflict.

But even there, China and USA have directly fought each other in a war (Korean war) and nobody pulled out their nukes (though China didn't have them yet iirc). The USSR and USA were always invading somebody or other. The nuclear Armageddon scenario is probably a lot less likely than feared--whereas I think the possibility of a nevertheless-vey-bad war in Asia is broadly underestimated.

Re: China's Island Factory – New islands being made in disputed China Sea

#42
post #33
post #20

I've watched with fascination as the Japanese Senkaku islands slowly and gradually came to be labeled 'disputed' in the western media, after China's recent claims. It seems like China has figured out a way to hack the media (the free media outside of China, I mean -- the government there obviously has root on Chinese TV and newspapers). Japanese ownership of this territory is basically as settled under international…

In a straight up military conflict the world ends. People are idiots though, so I guess that will happen at some point.

not necessary. A modern conflict can happen in the disputed area without anybody bombing cities of the opponent. iPhones will continue to be shipped to US from China while J-20 will be playing hide-and-seek with F-22/35 over, say, the South China Sea. A very related example - Great Britain didn't bomb Buenos Aires 32 years ago nor did Argentina strike at anything Britain's outside of the war zone.

Re: China's Island Factory – New islands being made in disputed China Sea

#43
post #15

Every time I see discussion about the nine dash line, I can't help but wonder how it can seem sane to anybody that China should have the water rights to an area ~600 km south of what is blatantly Vietnam's coastal waters (and the southern tip of their land) and just barely north of Malaysia's physical territory. I know the correct answer is: China doesn't care, and isn't concerned with reason when it comes to the nin…

> there is only who has the military power to dictate terms. Yeah, just like the American invasion of Iraq in 2004. Just because they could, despite it being unlawful at all international levels. But hey, Russia also does it, so there's not really any good example out there of a country that does not seize opportunities.

The United States never made a territorial claim to any part of Iraq.

Re: China's Island Factory – New islands being made in disputed China Sea

#44
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> because none of the countries whose territories China is going after -- not even Japan -- would do well in a straight up military conflict. I'm curious about why you don't think Japan would do well in a straight-up military conflict.

Japan's self-defense force is better-equipped, I will grant, but there are a few reasons. One is that there is always a higher level China could escalate to. I mean, in the end game they have nukes and Japan doesn't. But even if it didn't get to that level, China is a totalitarian regime with a history of brutally suppressing dissent, and I also assume that China would be willing to lose a lot more lives to make gain…

Japan may not officially have nuclear weapons, but they do not lack the capability - if they decided to weaponize (which would never happen short of a Chinese existential threat), they could do so in a matters of days, not months - the nuclear knowhow is clearly there.

The rest of your point is fair - for Japan to go to war would take a fundamental shift in the country, and its questionable whether the Senkaku Islands would meet that level. China is an aggressive, scary power in a lot of ways, and we ought to be cognizant of the dangers it poses - and the Japanese (and the Vietnamese, and the Phillipinos) are.

Re: China's Island Factory – New islands being made in disputed China Sea

#45
post #41
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a straight up military conflict the world ends. People are idiots though, so I guess that will happen at some point.

Not necessarily true. Not even probably true. The nuclear-armed USA has invaded a number of smaller and weaker countries over the past decades. China has also attacked several neighbors, though in a less balls-out manner. Armageddon did not ensue. The scariest scenario in Asia right now is: China attacks Japan (e.g. invades the Senkakus, or even accidentally kills some Japanese soldier in one of China's frequent reck…

I'm going to say the scariest scenario in Asia involves either North Korea or Pakistan.

Re: China's Island Factory – New islands being made in disputed China Sea

#46
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, what you are saying is that every time we buy something that's "Made in China", we are fueling the next major military power, which in turn will lead to a major conflict in the area?

I meant it more as a summary of China's strategic philosophy, which seems to be that the weak must inevitably give way to the strong. I don't know about a major military conflict, but China certainly seems to to be adopting a more...experimental posture.

Weak is a relative term, right? Vietnam is "weak". How about the other countries in the region? Japan? Russia?

I don't think it's called experimental when you flex your military muscle.

Re: China's Island Factory – New islands being made in disputed China Sea

#47
post #41
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a straight up military conflict the world ends. People are idiots though, so I guess that will happen at some point.

Not necessarily true. Not even probably true. The nuclear-armed USA has invaded a number of smaller and weaker countries over the past decades. China has also attacked several neighbors, though in a less balls-out manner. Armageddon did not ensue. The scariest scenario in Asia right now is: China attacks Japan (e.g. invades the Senkakus, or even accidentally kills some Japanese soldier in one of China's frequent reck…

It's World War One all over again.

Someone attacks a Great Power, they demand lots from a small country. Another Great Power swears to protect the small country. Another Great Power will defend first Great Power. Then before you know it, the power keg explodes.

Re: China's Island Factory – New islands being made in disputed China Sea

#48
post #41
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a straight up military conflict the world ends. People are idiots though, so I guess that will happen at some point.

Not necessarily true. Not even probably true. The nuclear-armed USA has invaded a number of smaller and weaker countries over the past decades. China has also attacked several neighbors, though in a less balls-out manner. Armageddon did not ensue. The scariest scenario in Asia right now is: China attacks Japan (e.g. invades the Senkakus, or even accidentally kills some Japanese soldier in one of China's frequent reck…

That's because nobody would let MacAthur do it. It's not like he didn't really want to use them.

Re: China's Island Factory – New islands being made in disputed China Sea

#49
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> because none of the countries whose territories China is going after -- not even Japan -- would do well in a straight up military conflict. I'm curious about why you don't think Japan would do well in a straight-up military conflict.

Japan's self-defense force is better-equipped, I will grant, but there are a few reasons. One is that there is always a higher level China could escalate to. I mean, in the end game they have nukes and Japan doesn't. But even if it didn't get to that level, China is a totalitarian regime with a history of brutally suppressing dissent, and I also assume that China would be willing to lose a lot more lives to make gain…

Depending on your definition, World War One was fought amounng democracies.

Re: China's Island Factory – New islands being made in disputed China Sea

#50

Every time I see discussion about the nine dash line, I can't help but wonder how it can seem sane to anybody that China should have the water rights to an area ~600 km south of what is blatantly Vietnam's coastal waters (and the southern tip of their land) and just barely north of Malaysia's physical territory. I know the correct answer is: China doesn't care, and isn't concerned with reason when it comes to the nin…

>there is only who has the military power to dictate terms.

officially it is called "international law"

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