The Man Who Defused the ‘Population Bomb’ • Hacker News Board

Re: The Man Who Defused the ‘Population Bomb’

#41

Post by netsp » Thu, Sep 17, 2009, 12:29 AM UTC

Periodic wrote: post #13

tomjen2 wrote: post #7

He saved an estimated ONE BILLION people. That really puts things in perspective.

I'd like to know the methods for estimating this number. Malnutrition deaths, children that were able to be born because their parents felt secure enough to have another child, food-shortage violence deaths, there are many indirect factors when you're talking about affecting scarcity for a population.

With something like this it is impossible to really estimate, even if you are looking only at direct effects (starvation. etc.)

First when you have a chain of necessary companents: (Scientific Invention > development of agricultural techniques > NGO Deploying of techniques > Rich guy funding the deployment > ex politician who convinced the rich guy) , each one can claim full credit for the process.

Then you have to guess what would have happened if this guy didn't do it? Would Mexicans still be farming like 1824?

Re: The Man Who Defused the ‘Population Bomb’

#42

Post by jacobolus » Thu, Sep 17, 2009, 3:26 AM UTC

gte910h wrote: post #14

m_eiman wrote: post #2

He didn't defuse it, he just added a few more feet to the fuse. As long as Earth's population grows exponentially (or even linearly), we'll hit a wall sooner or later. Malthus is still right: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusian_catastrophe

Omce birth control becomes free or affordable, and societites move out of agrarian only production, that is untrue. Reliable birth control pretty much leads to voluntary replacement only reproduction

It's not just birth control: Even more important is education of girls, which is the number one factor reducing natality. Educated urban women (and educated urban families) just don't have the 8-15 children that rural peasant families do (before industrialization anywhere in the world, for thousands of years). Part of it is also that previously >50% of children died before age 5. Now infant mortality is extremely low in most industrialized countries.

Re: The Man Who Defused the ‘Population Bomb’

#43

Post by jacobolus » Thu, Sep 17, 2009, 3:29 AM UTC

electromagnetic wrote: post #26

warfangle wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=world+population Population growth world-wide is 1.14% per year.

Actually on a long enough scale population growth is exponential and has been increasing at a phenomenal rate (by such time scales). However the good news is that the time it takes for the world population to double is estimated to increase. (Ed, note that any growth on any scale can be read as exponential. On a geological scale the human population growth is akin to the big-bang, but on a daily scale it's equivalent…

> Actually on a long enough scale population growth is exponential

This doesn't really make sense. Human population growth could potentially be modeled as a logistic curve, but I doubt that even really explains or will explain things adequately. More realistically, human population growth without new technology or social structures showing up is exponential, but those dramatically change its shape, to the point I'm not sure we can predict population more than 2-3 decades out.

Re: The Man Who Defused the ‘Population Bomb’

#44

Post by sireat » Thu, Sep 17, 2009, 8:01 AM UTC

kingkongrevenge wrote: post #38

fiplibs wrote: post #35

Industrial farming is a product of economy. In our society oil is cheap and labor is expensive, and our farming techniques reflect that. As far as alternatives go, an instructive example is post-USSR Cuba. Before 1991 they were a satellite-state which sold sugar at above market prices to the USSR and in exchange received oil and farm machinery. After the collapse they had to, essentially overnight, switch over to sub…

They're also highly dependent on imports of US produced food, and so probably not a great example of something to emulate.

I don't follow Cuba-US relations too much, thus my ignorance, but how are they importing US produced food? Through Canada or Mexico and gray market intermediaries?

I am not doubting they get some US food, just questioning how much.

Re: The Man Who Defused the ‘Population Bomb’

#45

Post by gte910h » Thu, Sep 17, 2009, 6:23 PM UTC

mynameishere wrote: post #30

gte910h wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Omce birth control becomes free or affordable, and societites move out of agrarian only production, that is untrue. Reliable birth control pretty much leads to voluntary replacement only reproduction

For a few generations. Eventually, the survival of the fittest kicks in, and those people who avoided birth control (from a stronger paternal feeling, etc) will restock the population.

Evolution doesn't work that quickly.

And additionally, humans have a vast ideological landscape that is "contagious" among individuals, which also happens to limit breeding. This is not something evolution can control through reasonable means.