Live data from Hacker News

Why Amazon Has No Profits and Why It Works

a16z.com

61–70 of 272 posts

Re: Why Amazon Has No Profits and Why It Works

#61

Original: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8274319 Wonder why that didn't garner any traction. Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that this duplicate link is from a16z?

There's an enormous amount of randomness to what makes it to the front page - I wouldn't read much into the fact that one got traction and the other did not.

Re: Why Amazon Has No Profits and Why It Works

#62
post #24

I listened to a talk by Amazon's CTO, Werner Vogels, where he was explaining that Amazon's entire strategy is to build an infrastructure for itself, then rent that infrastructure out to its competitors. That way, increased competition can actually fuel your growth. The talk was about APIs, but Amazon views APIs as a general term: "Fulfilled by Amazon" is an example of a non-technical API. Likewise, I think Amazon's s…

You know what? Amazon, Werner and/or Benedict Evans can spin it anyway they want (like the kid who gets caught with his hand in the cookie jar) but the bottom line is they aren't making money and haven't pinned to a date they plan to do so. (So making arguments as far as one business unit vs. another don't matter many business operate the same way and in sum make money.)

All the long winded explanation of the circumstances (such that Benedict gives in his writeup) hoping that people will be overwhelmed and not want to question what is going on (like a 20 page legal contract that can't easily be deciphered by non lawyers) I mean who even has the time to fully vet even what Benedict has "summarized" (not that it can be called that).

There is a saying in negotiating which is "you can name the price if I can name the terms". In the case of Amazon it's like "Let me name the business model and I will also name the time frame toward profitability".

One thing is for sure. Bezos may prove right in the end or not but there is no question he is operating according to his vision and doesn't look anywhere close to deviating from his (Benedict's words here) "lifestyle" business.

Re: Why Amazon Has No Profits and Why It Works

#63
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's all great but at some point they still need to turn a profit.

If all the profit goes back into the company to expand the company, is it somehow not "profit"? Saying that Amazon doesn't make a profit depends on a misleading definition of the word "profit". Amazon's individual operations do generate a profit, except for the new bleeding-edge expansions into new businesses. Those things run at a loss, fed by the profitable wings of the company. And when they become profitable, the…

it's not profit in the sense that we assume that amazon investors would be worse at reinvesting cash from existing operations than amazon management. It could very well be true now, but it may also not be as true as you think. That's why it's not really profit in the true sense of the word.

Re: Why Amazon Has No Profits and Why It Works

#64
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's all great but at some point they still need to turn a profit.

If you reinvest all profits, you're still turning a profit. To say otherwise is to confuse the issue, even if technically correct in some contexts.

Not really, because your re-investments could be profit-destroying. If you earn 100 dollars of profit and gave to investors, the investors now have $100. If you reinvest $100, the investors have a bet that some time in the future they will have more than $100. Clearly, the two are different.

Re: Why Amazon Has No Profits and Why It Works

#65

With Amazon, Bezos is deferring that profit-producing, investor-rewarding day almost indefinitely into the future. This prompts the suggestion that Amazon is the world’s biggest ‘lifestyle business’ – Bezos is running it for fun, not to deliver economic returns to shareholders, at least not any time soon. Sorry but that is ridiculous. Look at the stock price for Amazon. Anyone who has invested in Amazon has seen an a…

At no point was anyone suggesting that the purpose of Amazon is to tickle Bezos' fancy, and it would require a painfully literal reading of the article in order to think that's what the author was doing.

Perhaps I am dense but how else could you possibly interpret the quote that I cited?

Suggesting - even if lightly - that Bezos is running Amazon for "fun" and as a "lifestyle business", especially in the light of the great analysis done above it, indicates that the author looks at any business that has very long term goals as inferior to those who are solely focused on turning profits back to shareholders.

Re: Why Amazon Has No Profits and Why It Works

#66
post #24

I listened to a talk by Amazon's CTO, Werner Vogels, where he was explaining that Amazon's entire strategy is to build an infrastructure for itself, then rent that infrastructure out to its competitors. That way, increased competition can actually fuel your growth. The talk was about APIs, but Amazon views APIs as a general term: "Fulfilled by Amazon" is an example of a non-technical API. Likewise, I think Amazon's s…

> I listened to a talk by Amazon's CTO, Werner Vogels, where he was explaining that Amazon's entire strategy is to build an infrastructure for itself, then rent that infrastructure out to its competitors.

This was the game played by John D. Rockefeller. He had so much infrastructure built up by the time they split up Standard Oil, that each new state Standard Oil immediately had everything it needed to keep operations going and the breakup was essentially a bunch of paperwork. As a stockholder in all of the new firms, Rockefeller's net worth tripled, from ~300m to ~900 million.

To make this strategy work, you need mountains of cash. In his salad days, Rockefeller cultivated excellent relationships with bankers, who would stop him on the streets of Cleveland and ask him if he needed money. Eventually he decided to buy up Cleveland's entire refining industry, an event that became known as the Cleveland Massacre.

John offered three choices to rival refiners, cash, Standard Oil stock, or to get crushed. He leveraged his extensive railroad connections and infrastructure to bury competitors, for one thing he owned virtually all the oil tank rail cars, without which you couldn't sell your products because you couldn't move them efficiently.

The right choice was to have taken stock, which would have made you fabulously wealthy. If you were any good at the oil business at all, he would also offer you a job, which again would have eventually made you very very rich. He had an insatiable hunger for quality staff. It was never a good idea to bet against Rockefeller.

Re: Why Amazon Has No Profits and Why It Works

#67

I found this fascinating to read but made very difficult in part due to the overuse of commas. Maybe the folks at a16 could have this proof read. Investors in Amazon typically look to selling their stock for higher than they bought it as the way they "get their money out of their investment" So not sure why the fascination on profits. Profits are important if they become the means to achieving a higher stock price. B…

In an era (which is coming to an end) of fabulously cheap money though - I suggest you and read the intelligent investor by graham and re think your view that profits an dividends don't matter

Re: Why Amazon Has No Profits and Why It Works

#68
post #62
post #24

I listened to a talk by Amazon's CTO, Werner Vogels, where he was explaining that Amazon's entire strategy is to build an infrastructure for itself, then rent that infrastructure out to its competitors. That way, increased competition can actually fuel your growth. The talk was about APIs, but Amazon views APIs as a general term: "Fulfilled by Amazon" is an example of a non-technical API. Likewise, I think Amazon's s…

You know what? Amazon, Werner and/or Benedict Evans can spin it anyway they want (like the kid who gets caught with his hand in the cookie jar) but the bottom line is they aren't making money and haven't pinned to a date they plan to do so. (So making arguments as far as one business unit vs. another don't matter many business operate the same way and in sum make money.) All the long winded explanation of the circums…

your comment is at best a gross exaggeration. They are making money, but they are re-investing that money at a crazy rate into new businesses. That represents a huge bet, which their shareholders are willing to take on. The alternative would be to pay out cashflow from operations to shareholders in the form of dividends, or grow slower. But look at the stock price over the last 5 years - clearly, investors want to take on the bet

Re: Why Amazon Has No Profits and Why It Works

#69
post #62
post #24

I listened to a talk by Amazon's CTO, Werner Vogels, where he was explaining that Amazon's entire strategy is to build an infrastructure for itself, then rent that infrastructure out to its competitors. That way, increased competition can actually fuel your growth. The talk was about APIs, but Amazon views APIs as a general term: "Fulfilled by Amazon" is an example of a non-technical API. Likewise, I think Amazon's s…

You know what? Amazon, Werner and/or Benedict Evans can spin it anyway they want (like the kid who gets caught with his hand in the cookie jar) but the bottom line is they aren't making money and haven't pinned to a date they plan to do so. (So making arguments as far as one business unit vs. another don't matter many business operate the same way and in sum make money.) All the long winded explanation of the circums…

There has been a distortion in the markets lately with the value of cash. Over the long term, buying a share of any company (Amazon, Intel, Walmart) has to give a return to the holder of that share. Otherwise, you are trading cash to hold onto a piece of paper and get it returned back as cash when you sell it.

This invalidates the time value of money. In other words, if I am not getting a quarterly/annual dividend (ie a profit payout) on a stock, over the long term there is no incentive to hold onto that stock, because I could get a dividend from a different stock or some other investment in general.

Re: Why Amazon Has No Profits and Why It Works

#70
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As the article points out, they don't. By running the business this way they are constantly building / growing new businesses but during a downturn they just build more slowly (rather than lose money). It is a very different way of operating but one which has provided some interesting benefits for them. Nominally a business uses profits to either pay dividends or fund unexpected opportunities (like buying some small…

If they don't want a profit, what's their motivation for existing?

The other replies to this aside, I think the assumption inherent in your question is myopic.

I know for myself, my motivation to get capital (profits) is so I can build things that improve decision making, increase longevity and in the end expand knowledge worldwide. Perhaps Bezos has motivations that are along the same lines and this is how he is achieving them.

Post reply on HN