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UCLA, Cisco and more join forces to replace TCP/IP

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Re: UCLA, Cisco and more join forces to replace TCP/IP

#31

Post by lisper »

nnain wrote: post #14

One of the earliest attempts to replace the the TCP/IP model (or rather the lower layers of the ISO-OSI model) was the Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM). Despite being a well-intentioned idea, it failed to see real world usage because of the complexity. Along the way many developments happened. People learned to live and work with IPv4. Even IPv6 hasn't picked up despite solving some important problems. So when it com…

My first startup was an attempt to make an ATM-like network that actually worked:

http://www.linuxjournal.com/article/3293

Although mostly of historical interest now, I think the basic ideas are still sound. But the problem (as we learned the hard way) is that deploying a new network architecture is mainly a political problem, not a technical one.

Re: UCLA, Cisco and more join forces to replace TCP/IP

#32

Post by ay »

tgflynn wrote: post #28
ay wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Even IPv6 hasn't picked up" - this needs correction. http://6lab.cisco.com/stats/ https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html#tab=per-... http://www.worldipv6launch.org/measurements/ You can notice that 9% of the internet users in the US are IPv6-enabled. Germany is over 11%. Belgium is almost 30% (of course due to smaller population it's less in absolute host count). How many IPv6 users this is in millions,…

Yes but <20% adoption 18 years after the protocol was designed seems a bit slow, especially given the pace of overall technological change in this century.

Let's take a look at the Internet itself.

https://www.ietf.org/rfc/rfc791.txt is dated 1981.

Figure 1 in http://www.census.gov/prod/2013pubs/p20-569.pdf shows that the first time they recorded was in 1997, at 18%. That's 16 years (actually a bit more because my understanding is rfc791 documents the running code), and still under 20% - so by the same metric, the Internet is a failure!

Of course, then we can see the tail of the S-curve: it's doubled in the next three years, then slowed down and the last measurement is 71% of households in 2011. 30% of US households don't have internet at all, in 2011.

Now, let's bring the world-wide IPv6 numbers from the past 6 years, numbers from https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html#tab=ipv6...:

  0.05% on 7 September 2008
  0.09% on 31 August 2009
  0.15% on 30 August 2010
  0.34% on 1 September 2011
  0.74% on 30 August 2012
  1.84% on 1 September 2013
  4.42% on 31 August 2014
The US figures from http://6lab.cisco.com/stats/cible.php?country=US (available since 2012):

  1.32% on 1 September 2012
  4.03% on 1 September 2013
  9.91% on 1 September 2014
You can see it's been approximately doubling every year - and in the case of US more than doubling.

Understandingly, everything starts from zero or a very small number. A double of a very very small number is still a very small number.

But if you keep doubling, at some point the numbers stop being small.

We're at that point now.

I hope these numbers speak by itself - those who ignore them, are welcome to continue doing so. They make an easier competition for those who don't.

Re: UCLA, Cisco and more join forces to replace TCP/IP

#34

Post by verroq »

ay wrote: post #32
tgflynn wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes but <20% adoption 18 years after the protocol was designed seems a bit slow, especially given the pace of overall technological change in this century.

Let's take a look at the Internet itself. https://www.ietf.org/rfc/rfc791.txt is dated 1981. Figure 1 in http://www.census.gov/prod/2013pubs/p20-569.pdf shows that the first time they recorded was in 1997, at 18%. That's 16 years (actually a bit more because my understanding is rfc791 documents the running code), and still under 20% - so by the same metric, the Internet is a failure! Of course, then we can see the ta…

>You can see it's been approximately doubling every year

And by 2018, over 160% of the internet will be running IPv6.

Re: UCLA, Cisco and more join forces to replace TCP/IP

#35

Post by nnain »

ay wrote: post #25
nnain wrote: post #14

One of the earliest attempts to replace the the TCP/IP model (or rather the lower layers of the ISO-OSI model) was the Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM). Despite being a well-intentioned idea, it failed to see real world usage because of the complexity. Along the way many developments happened. People learned to live and work with IPv4. Even IPv6 hasn't picked up despite solving some important problems. So when it com…

"Even IPv6 hasn't picked up" - this needs correction. http://6lab.cisco.com/stats/ https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html#tab=per-... http://www.worldipv6launch.org/measurements/ You can notice that 9% of the internet users in the US are IPv6-enabled. Germany is over 11%. Belgium is almost 30% (of course due to smaller population it's less in absolute host count). How many IPv6 users this is in millions,…

Yes, but considering that the intent of IPv6 is to replace IPv4, not just to work along with it, I would still say that IPv6 hasn't reached the critical mass. Things have started moving fast in the last 2 years, but IPv4 still carries 96% of the world's data. It's interesting that the adoption is 30% in Belgium and 11% in Germany, but in India, UK, Australia, China, Canada and many more countries, it's less than 1% (actually it's typically below .2% in most of these countries): https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html#tab=per-...

Thanks for all the good information in your comment!

Re: UCLA, Cisco and more join forces to replace TCP/IP

#36

Post by jdimov »

Umm.. how about let's NOT replace TCP/IP with anything because it's may be the only well-designed thing on the Internet that actually works? If you want an impossible super-hero project to work on, try replacing HTTP instead - at least you'd actually be solving a problem.

Re: UCLA, Cisco and more join forces to replace TCP/IP

#38

Post by Luker88 »

This is the old Content Distribution Network. It does work -- provided you can easily identify a resource in the network. URIs are hierarchal, but do not follow the network connections hierarchy. Also, now every router needs to be able to track all the streams that go through it.

In short, everything explodes when you try to scale the thing.

Re: UCLA, Cisco and more join forces to replace TCP/IP

#39

Post by tgflynn »

ay wrote: post #32
tgflynn wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes but <20% adoption 18 years after the protocol was designed seems a bit slow, especially given the pace of overall technological change in this century.

Let's take a look at the Internet itself. https://www.ietf.org/rfc/rfc791.txt is dated 1981. Figure 1 in http://www.census.gov/prod/2013pubs/p20-569.pdf shows that the first time they recorded was in 1997, at 18%. That's 16 years (actually a bit more because my understanding is rfc791 documents the running code), and still under 20% - so by the same metric, the Internet is a failure! Of course, then we can see the ta…

Yes, but I don't think comparing Internet adoption with IPv6 adoption is terribly valid.

The first was a radically new technology and it took years for people to figure out how to best make use of it.

IPv6 was supposed to be a purely technical improvement to deal with some deficiencies of IPv4, notably address space limitations. It should mostly concern only network and systems administrators and systems software developers and be largely transparent to end users.

It's interesting that the two seem to have similar growth curves, but given the very different audiences involved I'm not sure what to make of that observation.

Certainly if you asked knowledgeable people in 1996 how long it would take to achieve near 100% IPv6 adoption I doubt many would have predicted 20 years.

On the other hand in 1981 I suspect few would have predicted that a technology developed by DARPA would be used by people in 2000 to buy books and manage their bank accounts.

Re: UCLA, Cisco and more join forces to replace TCP/IP

#40

Post by antocv »

jdimov wrote: post #36

Umm.. how about let's NOT replace TCP/IP with anything because it's may be the only well-designed thing on the Internet that actually works? If you want an impossible super-hero project to work on, try replacing HTTP instead - at least you'd actually be solving a problem.

Whats wrong with HTTP? How would you improve it?

Its a Text Transfer Protocol, you can even build applications with text only clients and servers. One only needs echo, bash and netcat to make a server and client.

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