A Financial Model Comparing Car Ownership with UberX in Los Angeles • Hacker News Board

Re: A Financial Model Comparing Car Ownership with UberX in Los Angeles

#61

Post by jusben1369 » Sun, Aug 31, 2014, 9:21 PM UTC

cpprototypes wrote: post #59

For Los Angeles, UberX, Lyft, and others have the potential to solve the "last mile" issue of public transit. Especially with newer carpool features like UberPool and Lyft Line. LA is currently investing a lot into building more light rail infrastructure. However, regardless of how much LA invests in rail, for most commuters the rail will only get them most of the way to their workplace. Before UberX and Lyft, the on…

Great points! I actually fear that investment in light rail is going to look misplaced in just 10 years when automated electric cars operated by private companies like Uber and Lyft and whomever are going to scoot multiple people between two common points.

Re: A Financial Model Comparing Car Ownership with UberX in Los Angeles

#62

Post by VLM » Sun, Aug 31, 2014, 9:21 PM UTC

harpastum wrote: post #41

diego wrote: post #34

The article disregards the fact that a car has features that Uber doesn't. One is mobile storage: you can store things in your car that you often need wherever you go. This is particularly important for parents of young children. Another one is instant availability for open-ended road trips. It's not feasible to go visit a friend two hours away with the possibility of staying overnight with an Uber. If you're going t…

This is a good point, but there are also several Uber benefits over car ownership. For example, being able to travel when tired/inebriated. Also, not being late if you have an engine issue or get a flat tire. This article tries to enumerate the financial differences, the subjective ones are also very important.

"Also, not being late if you have an engine issue or get a flat tire."

How does uber prevent that? I suppose with a fleet of cars, another could pick you up, but you're still going to be late (just not as late)

(edited to add, and on the frontend, I can guarantee that about 45 seconds after leaving the door at work, I'll be starting my car and moving out of the lot, how does uber guarantee that a car will be ready to leave for work within say 15 minutes, so I'd have to burn much more total commute time to make sure theres a realistic chance I won't be late. TLDR is the std deviation of a rental is going to be very large compared to an owned car.)

Re: A Financial Model Comparing Car Ownership with UberX in Los Angeles

#63

Post by VLM » Sun, Aug 31, 2014, 9:38 PM UTC

sixQuarks wrote: post #2

His calculations are simply wrong. In his examples, the cost of annual car ownership remains $12,744 despite the different mileage estimates. If you drive only 5,000 miles per year, your ownership costs are going to be much less than if you drive 13,000 miles. Why did he not adjust the cost of ownership?

"In his examples, the cost of annual car ownership remains $12,744 despite the different mileage estimates."

Its actually even worse. The ownership cost lists "Total cost per year (assuming 15,000 miles driven a year)" and that 15K miles is compared to Uber at 5K, 9K, and 13K miles. I am not surprised to discover that it costs more to drive a car 15K miles than 5K miles.

There are other assumption problems. For example like almost all people I can't will myself to generate $2500 of extra marginal after tax revenue while driving (and all the math in the article assumes a zero percent income tax rate, which seems optimistic). Frankly in a taxi I'd probably be about as productive as I am in my car, listening to audiobooks. Parking costs tend to be very binary, if you live and work urban its incredibly expensive and the $1K/yr might only be a fond dream. For me, I'm lucky enough not to live urban so its free. I'm mystified how he's both making car payments on an almost new car and paying hundreds per year for maintenance at the same time. My '14 toyota came with a sales incentive or whatever its called such that I won't be paying for anything but gas until the payments are done after which a couple oil changes a year for the next 15 years aren't going to cost $400/yr. I just paid my registration at $75 which is up from $25 two decades ago ago while he's paying over $350. I do not pay property tax on my car, I don't put it past the more uncivilized areas to try that, but its not an issue for me. Maybe he's breaking down the fraction of gasoline fuel pump cost which is taxes, I could believe the numbers in that case.

The arithmetic in the article doesn't make much sense.

Re: A Financial Model Comparing Car Ownership with UberX in Los Angeles

#64

Post by VLM » Sun, Aug 31, 2014, 9:50 PM UTC

ghaff wrote: post #51

willhinsa wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually it's not difficult. Calculate your hourly wage (salary + benefits)/hours_worked, and value all of your time as such. It will help you a lot to avoid wasting time doing stuff you don't like that you can pay people to do for you at a lower cost to you.

That makes the assumption that you can earn that wage in the incremental time you gain by having someone do a task for you. Maybe if you're an independent consultant or otherwise have a business where you bill by the hour and are turning down work you simply don't have time to do but would otherwise be happy to take it. But that doesn't describe most people. I do pay to have a number of things done for me on a regula…

"like getting my lawn cut"

This is a particularly bad example, because not only would I have to pay someone to mow my lawn for me, to get my light exercise I'd also have to pay to use someone else's treadmill to get my exercise. This is starting to get expensive and rapidly looking cheaper to just mow my own lawn.

"turning down work" - If I have 8 hrs of work per day and waste 2 hrs of time per day on the internet, I'd rather waste internet time on the couch at home, than try to sneak it in at work because I did some of my work elsewhere. If I work extra hard for free, my great-great-great-grand-boss might get a bigger bonus, but all I'll get is less free time in my life, absolutely nothing more.

Re: A Financial Model Comparing Car Ownership with UberX in Los Angeles

#65

Post by tedunangst » Sun, Aug 31, 2014, 9:54 PM UTC

joeguilmette wrote: post #56

Aloha wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

neo-luddites perhaps, when I was an active cyclist a bit more than a decade ago the fixie was an unknown thing. There were single speed bikes then - the well known beach cruiser - it was a single speed, yes, but it also could idle along without peddling and had a rear drum brake - I can see a place for that kind of thing - no one has been able to explain to me how a direct drive fixed gear bicycle is better than even…

It's like a manual vs an automatic vehicle. You aren't forced to constantly pedal, so much as your legs must move at the same speed as the pedals. At low speeds you are much more connected to the bicycle. Taking a low speed, sharp turn is more akin to walking and feels much more natural. Also, it enforces good form, like pedaling thru turns. Small speed adjustments are natural and easy. Also, when accelerating, the p…

Why do I want to pedal through turns? I've never ridden a bike that way.

Re: A Financial Model Comparing Car Ownership with UberX in Los Angeles

#66

Post by VLM » Sun, Aug 31, 2014, 9:57 PM UTC

mgkimsal wrote: post #37

MichaelApproved wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fewer safety features /= better fuel efficiency. New cars, loaded with safety feature can get better fuel efficiency than 25mpg. Regarding the 25mpg, is that a recent calculation or are you going off the info sheet your car had when you purchased it. Unless you took excellent care of your car, I'd bet you're not getting 25mpg.

Not the OP, but... My car is 10 years old - 170k miles on it - I still get > 25mpg, and I calculate every fill-up. Long trips I get ~30mpg. Around town it's 26-28, depending on how much I use the AC and at what times I'm driving. Could I be off in my fill-up estimations? Possibly some now and then, but it's been pretty consistent for the last several years.

I've been driving for awhile, and as I think back on all the mileage related mechanical problems my 87 horizon had that would cause an insta ODB-II fail on my 14 toyota, I'm thinking OP is older-ish like me.

My '87 was one of the last models with a carb (or am I thinking of the '81 ?) and it had a mechanical choke that would get stuck on a regular basis in the winter and the thermostat also broke / got confused. I think most of the time I was driving around with what on a modern car would be at least 2 or 3 engine code violations. It was reliable as in it always got me to work, but it was not economic or efficient and was usually broken at one level or another.

Modern cars are just more reliable and self diagnose very effectively.

Re: A Financial Model Comparing Car Ownership with UberX in Los Angeles

#67

Post by wj » Sun, Aug 31, 2014, 10:04 PM UTC

jusben1369 wrote: post #61

cpprototypes wrote: post #59

For Los Angeles, UberX, Lyft, and others have the potential to solve the "last mile" issue of public transit. Especially with newer carpool features like UberPool and Lyft Line. LA is currently investing a lot into building more light rail infrastructure. However, regardless of how much LA invests in rail, for most commuters the rail will only get them most of the way to their workplace. Before UberX and Lyft, the on…

Great points! I actually fear that investment in light rail is going to look misplaced in just 10 years when automated electric cars operated by private companies like Uber and Lyft and whomever are going to scoot multiple people between two common points.

Potentially. But LA has millions of daily commuters. Automated electric cars will still clog up the freeways (thought hopefully less so due to less accidents, etc.) but the light rail should hopefully move more people quickly for 80% of their trips with Uber and Lyft providing the last mile.

I personally think they should stop construction on the subway to the sea and roll our light rail across the city.

Re: A Financial Model Comparing Car Ownership with UberX in Los Angeles

#68

Post by rokhayakebe » Sun, Aug 31, 2014, 10:05 PM UTC

notastartup wrote: post #40

bane wrote: post #21

Geez, $12,744 per year ? I've had my current car since 2002, which I bought new for about $14,000 (including interest, which was low because I paid the car off as quickly as I possibly could, short circuiting most of the interest payments). I go through the exercise of the total lifetime cost of my car, gas, insurance, maintenace, all told every year or two. And it's somewhere around $.30-.40 per mile or about $1 che…

what car are you driving and how much mileage was on it when you bought it? I honestly think to get from point A to B, a used car will do the job just fine, sounds pretty good from what you've described.

You could buy a car for $2000 to $3000, drive it for 6 months and sell them for more. Or buy one for $4000 to $5000, drive it for 2 years then sell it for $3000 without a sweat.

These Uber-models are great, and I would love to Uber/Lyft/.... everywhere, but they are costly and I do not know what people mean when they say "average" driver in X city.

Re: A Financial Model Comparing Car Ownership with UberX in Los Angeles

#69

Post by wj » Sun, Aug 31, 2014, 10:13 PM UTC

Every article about Uber, Lyft, and electric vehicles ends up with the majority of the comments saying something along the lines of, "This is stupid because it doesn't fit my situation."

For what is usually such an open-minded group of individuals it seems as if personal transportation is the topic where that open-mindedness doesn't extend.

(Though that might be true for the population as a whole--gas prices is a legitimate political issue.)

Re: A Financial Model Comparing Car Ownership with UberX in Los Angeles

#70

Post by jusben1369 » Sun, Aug 31, 2014, 10:39 PM UTC

wj wrote: post #67

jusben1369 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great points! I actually fear that investment in light rail is going to look misplaced in just 10 years when automated electric cars operated by private companies like Uber and Lyft and whomever are going to scoot multiple people between two common points.

Potentially. But LA has millions of daily commuters. Automated electric cars will still clog up the freeways (thought hopefully less so due to less accidents, etc.) but the light rail should hopefully move more people quickly for 80% of their trips with Uber and Lyft providing the last mile. I personally think they should stop construction on the subway to the sea and roll our light rail across the city.

I hear what you're saying. But what is light rail but several electric cars daisy chained? If you can put 4 people in one (a la car pooling) and give them a dedicated HOV lane between places.......