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A Financial Model Comparing Car Ownership with UberX in Los Angeles

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Re: A Financial Model Comparing Car Ownership with UberX in Los Angeles

#11

Post by foobarqux »

WalterSear wrote: post #7
pkaye wrote: post #4

He makes average assumptions about car ownership but then makes optimistic assumptions about UberX. Like no surge pricing, productivity and wait times. The biggest thing is of course Uber is available in a few cities. Places like SF and Manhattan it might be convenient since everything is nearby but in LA and Silicon Valley everything is spread out.

The other biggest thing: uber is a one company, and a startup. They may be forced to radically change their business models, their service may turn to shit, and they might even go up in smoke overnight.

Unless Uber dramatically alters the price or supply of cars you will still be able to revert to car ownership.

Re: A Financial Model Comparing Car Ownership with UberX in Los Angeles

#12

Post by cj »

The biggest flaw is the assumption that people who live in cities where Uber is available drive an average of 13,476 miles per year (with avg commute distance of 25 miles).

Those numbers are the national average, but I'd guess the average miles per year is significantly lower for people living in major cities.

When I lived in rural New York I easily drove 10-20k miles in a year. But now that I live and work in San Francisco, I drive about 3-4k miles per year, with a daily commute of 7 miles round trip.

It'd be interesting to see a similar analysis that limits the data set to people who live and work in major cities where Uber is available.

Re: A Financial Model Comparing Car Ownership with UberX in Los Angeles

#13

Post by medius »

"In fact, he believes one day all the Uber cars on the road may be driving themselves."

What piece of "cars driving themselves" does Uber have? Uber has an app. Google has self driving cars and they can also build an app. So he is basically describing Google's future, not Uber's.

Re: A Financial Model Comparing Car Ownership with UberX in Los Angeles

#14

Post by bbrian »

Aloha wrote: post #5

"About two years ago I sold my Lexus GS 300 and replaced it with a sleek single-speed Pure Fix commuter bike" This brought a vision of someone trying to descend from capitol hill here in seattle on a fixie (something I saw the last week) - a fixie, while still stupid is at least workable in LA (though I'd still never own one, I prefer gears), it still seems wholly impractical for seattle.

I see single-speed bikers as the luddites of cycling. I live in a relatively flat city, Dublin, but I am still constantly shifting gears. I think a lot of people don't understand how good gears really are. In a similar way, there are a lot of people cycling mountain bikes around the city, and I didn't appreciate how much better actual road bikes are while I still had my hybrid. And for non-cyclists: 15 mph (25 kmph) is a fairly reasonable commuting speed.

Re: A Financial Model Comparing Car Ownership with UberX in Los Angeles

#15

Post by MichaelApproved »

vkjv wrote: post #8

Wow, I was floored by the average cost of ownership. Mine is nowhere near that low: 1. $0. I don't have payments is 15 years old, so it's not depreciating significantly. 2. $1250. I fill up about once every two weeks. Old cars have less safety features, which me ans better fuel efficiency. 25 mpg. 3. $0. I've never had an auto loan. 4. $300. Old car and perfect driving record. Still have good coverage (uninsured moto…

Fewer safety features /= better fuel efficiency. New cars, loaded with safety feature can get better fuel efficiency than 25mpg.

Regarding the 25mpg, is that a recent calculation or are you going off the info sheet your car had when you purchased it. Unless you took excellent care of your car, I'd bet you're not getting 25mpg.

Re: A Financial Model Comparing Car Ownership with UberX in Los Angeles

#16

Post by IvyMike »

cj wrote: post #12

The biggest flaw is the assumption that people who live in cities where Uber is available drive an average of 13,476 miles per year (with avg commute distance of 25 miles). Those numbers are the national average, but I'd guess the average miles per year is significantly lower for people living in major cities. When I lived in rural New York I easily drove 10-20k miles in a year. But now that I live and work in San Fr…

> I'd guess the average miles per year is significantly lower for people living in major cities.

I'll agree, with the exception of Los Angeles, which is atypical in how spread out it is. 13.5k is perfectly believable.

http://laist.com/2012/06/30/map_how_many_major_us_cities_can...

Re: A Financial Model Comparing Car Ownership with UberX in Los Angeles

#17

Post by zevyoura »

medius wrote: post #13

"In fact, he believes one day all the Uber cars on the road may be driving themselves." What piece of "cars driving themselves" does Uber have? Uber has an app. Google has self driving cars and they can also build an app. So he is basically describing Google's future, not Uber's.

Google has a $250M investment in Uber.

Re: A Financial Model Comparing Car Ownership with UberX in Los Angeles

#18

Post by policenracism »

I found his point of being a young black male and not having to be pulled over again to be striking.

I am sure that black people are pulled over more times by the police then whites are. What could be the reasoning and the solution(s). Is it because...

- The cops are really racist? - The cops are looking for a suspect that matches those unfairly targeted? In which and unfortunately points to a statistic that black males (those from low income areas & raised without a parental unit(s)) are more prone to crime. In the area I live there are really bad parts of town you do not want to enter due to high crime, gangs, murders, etc and that part of town the majority is black.

Is there a solution because I know I would be pissed just because I am getting pulled over because I resemble a suspect the cops are looking for.

Though maybe the cops are just racist?

I don't know just pondering here as this is a current affair topic one that is being talked about more and more these days.

Re: A Financial Model Comparing Car Ownership with UberX in Los Angeles

#19

Post by polarix »

medius wrote: post #13

"In fact, he believes one day all the Uber cars on the road may be driving themselves." What piece of "cars driving themselves" does Uber have? Uber has an app. Google has self driving cars and they can also build an app. So he is basically describing Google's future, not Uber's.

Google is not the only company investing in self-driving cars, so there will almost certainly be a market for purchasing them as well as merely renting. Uber has a proven customer base and elegant transition strategy. It should be an interesting competition, assuming Google doesn't buy Uber outright.

Re: A Financial Model Comparing Car Ownership with UberX in Los Angeles

#20

Post by baddox »

medius wrote: post #13

"In fact, he believes one day all the Uber cars on the road may be driving themselves." What piece of "cars driving themselves" does Uber have? Uber has an app. Google has self driving cars and they can also build an app. So he is basically describing Google's future, not Uber's.

Once self-driving cars are available, Uber would be a major company deploying them (assuming Uber is still around and similarly positioned). They could either buy their own cars, or somehow allow private "drivers" to deploy their cars on the Uber network.
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