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Hal Finney being cryopreserved now

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Re: Hal Finney being cryopreserved now

#241
post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you please try to control the weather first? Because we know from observation that that's just molecules pushing each other around, and it's a lot less complicated then life, so it should be easier to control, right? (only -- intractability)

No, it's actually more complicated. Biological machinery doesn't push molecules at random. Sure it's a lot to work out, but we've been doing it for the last 100 years with a lot of success. Google up some things we can make bacteria do nowdays. By the way, the primary obstacle to controlling the weather is not the molecular-level interactions, it's the power requirements . Given enough energy generation, we could con…

> the primary obstacle to controlling the weather is ... the power requirements

.. and the intractability of the weather

Re: Hal Finney being cryopreserved now

#242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there's some basic assumption that we disagree on but haven't identified explicitly yet. In order to try and do that, I want to ask you: do you disagree with any of the following statements, and if yes, could you tell where and why? - an example of nanotechnology exists and works, it's called "life" - this particular technology is in principle able to do the tasks required to revive a properly cryopreserved p…

(1) obviously, agree. (2) unknown, unknowable (3) unknown, unknowable (4) unknown, knowable but only in a very far future (if at all). So, in short nanotechnology is just like every other technology, it has laws and limits and does not automatically allow us to do everything we would like it to be able to do. For an analogy: we know that the ribosome + DNA complex creates proteins. But we are still bound in terms of…

So if I understand you correctly - you're saying that we don't know today the constraints of that particular problem, so we can't make a good guess for the feasibility of (2) and (3). Therefore current culture around cryonics is vastly overstating the chance of success, to the point that it starts looking to you like a scam.

I guess the main point of difference is our estimate of how likely is that those yet unexplored constraints will let us reverse cryopreserving. I seem to have more hope for that than you do, but I admit, at this point it's probably a bit of a guesswork.

Re: Hal Finney being cryopreserved now

#243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(1) obviously, agree. (2) unknown, unknowable (3) unknown, unknowable (4) unknown, knowable but only in a very far future (if at all). So, in short nanotechnology is just like every other technology, it has laws and limits and does not automatically allow us to do everything we would like it to be able to do. For an analogy: we know that the ribosome + DNA complex creates proteins. But we are still bound in terms of…

So if I understand you correctly - you're saying that we don't know today the constraints of that particular problem, so we can't make a good guess for the feasibility of (2) and (3). Therefore current culture around cryonics is vastly overstating the chance of success, to the point that it starts looking to you like a scam. I guess the main point of difference is our estimate of how likely is that those yet unexplor…

You got it perfectly. At some point bets about what is possible in the future become meaningless and this is way past the ability of science to extrapolate what will one day be scientifically possible or declared to be impossible.

Thanks for the exchange, off to bed here (4:39 am...).

Re: Hal Finney being cryopreserved now

#244
post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let me make myself clear: I am not debating the possibility that revival could one day turn from the science-fiction it is now into a real technology. I am pointing out the leaps of faith people take to translate that reasonable scientific conjecture into actual life (or death) choices. Thinking about whether there is a god or isn't -- and trying to learn the truth -- makes you a philosopher; it is changing your beha…

Do you agree then that all those non-technological assumptions can be included in one's utility calculations and that people can give different estimates to how friendly the future would look like? Or do you believe the probability of a bad future is so big, that betting on benevolent world is a leap or faith?

> Do you agree then that all those non-technological assumptions can be included in one's utility calculations...

Perhaps in theory. In practice I don't see this happening without turning into a religion. Even from the rational perspective, you don't really have enough knowledge to make a reasonably informed bet. From a rational perspective it's just buying a lottery ticket. But that's not the psychology of what's happening here. To me, your question sounds like: "so you don't agree that people would choose who they sleep with based on cold utilitarian estimates?" Well, maybe that's theoretically possible, and maybe some people can do that, but that doesn't happen in the general case, because human psychology is also very real.

I do not for one second believe that people can think about death and about options of spending resources to win an afterlife in a purely rational, utilitarian way. If you're saying that's how you think then either you're suffering from a mental disorder (I'm saying it in good humor) or you're not being honest with yourself. I don't think that cold calculation can trump fantasies of eternal life in a bright future. I think that there's no way such fantasies do not cloud your judgement, just as a pretty girl would make you do dumb stuff. That's just how we're wired. Once hope and emotion play a role in guiding your decision to act today based on the belief in a (positive) afterlife, you stop being a scientist and turn into a believer. But that's OK. Most of us, including scientists, are often religious (even if we don't ascribe to the omniscient-omnipotent-deity religious model). But we should realize that's what we're doing, and know when we've moved from the very earthly, Sisyphean, frustrating, limited, no-promises science to religion, where anything's possible.

(Actually, who says we should?)

Re: Hal Finney being cryopreserved now

#245
post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it's actually more complicated. Biological machinery doesn't push molecules at random. Sure it's a lot to work out, but we've been doing it for the last 100 years with a lot of success. Google up some things we can make bacteria do nowdays. By the way, the primary obstacle to controlling the weather is not the molecular-level interactions, it's the power requirements . Given enough energy generation, we could con…

> the primary obstacle to controlling the weather is ... the power requirements .. and the intractability of the weather

There's no intractability here, with enough power you could just push the air around any way you like. Weather is transforming energy in a very, very complex set of feedback loops, but you could override it completely with even more energy. You can throw paper balls at a cat to try and get it to move somewhere, or you can just grab it and put it where you want it to be (and then catch it again, because it will most definitely try to escape).

Re: Hal Finney being cryopreserved now

#246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So if I understand you correctly - you're saying that we don't know today the constraints of that particular problem, so we can't make a good guess for the feasibility of (2) and (3). Therefore current culture around cryonics is vastly overstating the chance of success, to the point that it starts looking to you like a scam. I guess the main point of difference is our estimate of how likely is that those yet unexplor…

You got it perfectly. At some point bets about what is possible in the future become meaningless and this is way past the ability of science to extrapolate what will one day be scientifically possible or declared to be impossible. Thanks for the exchange, off to bed here (4:39 am...).

> Thanks for the exchange, off to bed here (4:39 am...).

You're welcome, and thank you as well. Also going to bed (03:49 AM here, and I was supposed to be coding up my thesis... I guess it's time to turn on the noprocrast again).

Re: Hal Finney being cryopreserved now

#247
post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the primary obstacle to controlling the weather is ... the power requirements .. and the intractability of the weather

There's no intractability here, with enough power you could just push the air around any way you like. Weather is transforming energy in a very, very complex set of feedback loops, but you could override it completely with even more energy. You can throw paper balls at a cat to try and get it to move somewhere, or you can just grab it and put it where you want it to be (and then catch it again, because it will most d…

> with enough power you could just push the air around any way you like

Maybe a real god could, but we can't. Unless you have tractor beams, anti-gravity force fields and other sci-fi tech, either you'd have to have these "weather machines" placed in a fairly tight grid, or intractability would rule (outside a small area of influence). The problem isn't just energy, but directing it.

Re: Hal Finney being cryopreserved now

#248
post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no intractability here, with enough power you could just push the air around any way you like. Weather is transforming energy in a very, very complex set of feedback loops, but you could override it completely with even more energy. You can throw paper balls at a cat to try and get it to move somewhere, or you can just grab it and put it where you want it to be (and then catch it again, because it will most d…

> with enough power you could just push the air around any way you like Maybe a real god could, but we can't. Unless you have tractor beams, anti-gravity force fields and other sci-fi tech, either you'd have to have these "weather machines" placed in a fairly tight grid, or intractability would rule (outside a small area of influence). The problem isn't just energy, but directing it.

Also, the inefficiency of ex: wind turbines would add a lot of energy which would be counter productive. You might be able to control the weather by blocking out the sun and then selectively lighting some areas over others. But that's not really controlling weather so much as setting the temperature on an AC.

Re: Hal Finney being cryopreserved now

#250
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, because legal definitions impose their validity on the universe.

I think he was referring to the legal clusterfuck that happens when someone who is legally dead isn't actually dead. http://www.loweringthebar.net/2013/10/no-youre-still-decease... http://www.loweringthebar.net/2014/08/feds-say-legally-dead-...

No I think they are stupid to try to bring back the dead.
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