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Hidden obstacles for self driving cars

technologyreview.com

21–30 of 85 posts

Re: Hidden obstacles for self driving cars

#21
Oh really? A futuristic mind blowing developing technology which hasn't been released to the public (and has no plans to) isn't ready to be released to the public? What's the point of an article like this, especially being posted here? We're all technical people who understand the complexities (or understand it's so complex that we can't understand them.) If the effort is to inform the ignorant public of their misconceptions, post it on fox news or yahoo answers.

/rant

Re: Hidden obstacles for self driving cars

#22

I'd love to see an article on this topic that was actually written for techies/engineers. IMO, this could be right out of Wired the way it is written -- it conflates regulatory issues, problems that are clearly (relatively) easy but just not tackled, and problems that are legitimately still pending solutions before this goes mainstream. An article focusing on what the actual real difficult unsolved technical issues a…

Negative obstacles (e.g. potholes) in particular are trouble for line-of-sight flight time sensing modalities like laser & radar. The lower the sensor is mounted on the vehicle, the longer (in direction of travel) the hole has to be before you get a sufficiently large difference to notice between returns from the same beam in subsequent time-steps. This is of course worsened further by increasing vehicle speed. It is somewhat mitigated by having multiple beams, i.e. the Velodyne laser scanner has 64, but even still only a few are hitting the obstacle and surrounds at any one time.

Some of the more interesting research in this area uses infrared to detect the change in heat of a shadowed hole versus flat ground. Of course, that only works when there's sunshine to provide the heat source.

P.S. Google people reading this (Urmson, Ferguson, etc), please consider this my annual reminder of the awesomeness of your Google Sydney office and the large quantities of autonomous field robotics engineers training and working within walking distance of it, for wages that could be doubled without your budgets even noticing...

Re: Hidden obstacles for self driving cars

#23
>"Some experts are bothered by Google’s refusal to provide that sort of safety-related information... the public 'has a right to be concerned' about Google’s reticence: 'This is a very early-stage technology, which makes asking these kinds of questions all the more justified.'"

This seems to be a pretty common opinion, but I fail to see why anyone feels they have a "right" to be told Google's plans, strategies and ideas, much less their development mistakes and failures for a thing that is not a product currently available (or even close to it).

I realize there is a very real fear many people have about autonomous vehicles because it's something they don't/can't understand. And while that's something Google's marketing/PR department may want to deal with, this fearmongering attitude of "Google won't tell me exactly how it's going to work... it must not be safe... oh no we're all going to die!!! " is just getting ridiculous.

Re: Hidden obstacles for self driving cars

#24
post #8

I remember a few of these difficulties being mentioned in Sebastian Thrun's Self-Driving Cars course on Udacity. It's been awhile, but I seem to remember the snow discussion in particular. The problem wasn't just slippery conditions, but the question of how the vehicle can localize itself when the various visual cues that it uses are covered in snow (e.g. road lines). Pretty interesting stuff.

People have trouble with snow as well. If there are no tracks in front of you, you just guess where you're supposed to go and go for it. It's pretty fun on roads you know well, rather miserable on roads you don't.

Also, most 3-lane roads magically turn into 2-lane roads, and many 2-lane roads turn into 3-lane roads etc.

Re: Hidden obstacles for self driving cars

#25

I'd love to see an article on this topic that was actually written for techies/engineers. IMO, this could be right out of Wired the way it is written -- it conflates regulatory issues, problems that are clearly (relatively) easy but just not tackled, and problems that are legitimately still pending solutions before this goes mainstream. An article focusing on what the actual real difficult unsolved technical issues a…

>So avoiding any unexpected item in the road when safe to do so is probably always the right solution anyway.

Exactly. These are edge cases that will undoubtedly be better handled as the technology matures in the near future. There no reason that these (still very speculative) issues should slow down adoption.

Re: Hidden obstacles for self driving cars

#27
post #14

It seems to me we have a better chance of seeing low flying autonomous vehicles for personal transportation before we see self driving cars (think quad coptor drone style vehicle with 500 lb payload capability). Autopilot systems are already widely used in commercial air vehicles. Fewer obstacles need to be accounted for in the air and there is less in grained regulation. It feels like we are going to leapfrog the ca…

Why do you think this? Self-driving cars seem reasonably close whereas there doesn't seem to be anything resembling what you're proposing. Also, aren't autopilot systems successful in commercial air vehicles because they operate high up away from most everything other than a few birds and other commercial air vehicles and they maintain massive separation between vehicles (compared to roads)? This wouldn't seem to sca…

It depends on how "reasonably close" they end up coming. If it ends up being a xeno's paradox of issues where it can handle 90% of situations, then 99%, then 99.9%, then 99.99%, etc, but each of those incremental improvements prove harder and harder to achieve, how many lawmakers are going to say "Sure, only .001% of robot cars on the road get into catastrophic accidents in unhandled situations, that's fine, let's make these things legal"?

The problem with emergent technology is that it's what people tend to be most afraid of, and if there ends up being situations a robotic car absolutely cannot handle that's known about, how long will it take for people to start abusing it?

And for unhandled exceptions...awhile back I was driving up 280 and a police officer pulled out in front of traffic, flipped his lights on, and started weaving back and forth across all lanes of traffic. All the drivers slowed down and kept behind the officer, obviously not sure what was going on. The officer stopped weaving at a couple points along about a one-mile stretch to get out of his car and pick up an item off the freeway, then got back in and resumed weaving, until he got up to a previously-pulled-over car and parked behind another officer.

That's definitely not something they covered in driver's ed, apart from "if something unusual is happening, slow down". But how long would it take for it to make the news if a smart car in that situation passed the car on a weave and struck a drunk guy that was stumbling along the freeway at 85mph, do you think? And do you really think every possible situation that occurs during driving will eventually be able to be handled by a smart car?

Another example, any point you run into a car or random other vehicle that's double-parked in the city. If the car can only figure out that pedestrians are blobs of pixels, does it have sufficient resolution to figure out how far away that oncoming car is, or will it just patiently sit behind that moving truck until they're done and start moving again?

There's a lot of edge cases for this tech, and most if not all of them have potentially fatal exception cases if you fail to handle them correctly.

Re: Hidden obstacles for self driving cars

#28

>"Some experts are bothered by Google’s refusal to provide that sort of safety-related information... the public 'has a right to be concerned' about Google’s reticence: 'This is a very early-stage technology, which makes asking these kinds of questions all the more justified.'" This seems to be a pretty common opinion, but I fail to see why anyone feels they have a "right" to be told Google's plans, strategies and id…

The public has the right because Google is testing its cars on public streets.

Re: Hidden obstacles for self driving cars

#29
post #13
post #8

I remember a few of these difficulties being mentioned in Sebastian Thrun's Self-Driving Cars course on Udacity. It's been awhile, but I seem to remember the snow discussion in particular. The problem wasn't just slippery conditions, but the question of how the vehicle can localize itself when the various visual cues that it uses are covered in snow (e.g. road lines). Pretty interesting stuff.

I think there are better potential solutions for a self driving car to orient itself in those kinds of conditions than for a person. I've driven in miserable weather, and it is very disconcerting - you just guess and go. A self driving car could take measurements of the road + gps coords + look its map database to know how many lanes there should be, then estimated where the lanes and limit lines are. Once my eyes fa…

That, and you have to consider that one of the chief issues this article brings up - that the self driving cars are relying on unreliable maps - is that once a self driving car traverses a road, it could propagate a much more detailed, or at least much more auto-appropriate map to the swarm of other cars.

The maps would get magnitudes better the year the cars were unleashed.

Re: Hidden obstacles for self driving cars

#30

I am making a bold prediction that it will be decades before a self driving car can drive itself safely on Indian streets. Road Signs ? None. Rules ? They're more like suggestions. Roads ? What Road ?

They are still designed fundamentally to avoid obstacles. And they have 360 degree vision, meaning they will avoid other vehicles when they do not follow expected traffic behavior.

I imagine some kind of "paranoia" setting where the car just assumes that anything it sees moving can and will accelerate towards it or its immediate path.

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