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Paul Buchheit: Evaluating risk and opportunity (as a human)

paulbuchheit.blogspot.com

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Re: Paul Buchheit: Evaluating risk and opportunity (as a human)

#3

Post by edw519 »

I think the most common technique is to ask ourselves, "What is the most likely outcome?", and if that outcome is good, then we do it.

For those thinking logically, yes.

Many others (not hn readers, or course) ask themselves, "What is everyone else doing?"

  Marge: What on earth possessed you to get an earring?
  Bart: Milhouse has one.
  Marge: If Milhouse jumped off a cliff...
  Bart: Milhouse jumped off a cliff? I'm there.
[EDIT: Oops, I forgot the tag. I keep doing that. Obviously, we all make many decisions by following the crowd. Those of us who pride ourselves in being logical would rather not admit it except for the most minor decisions.]

Re: Paul Buchheit: Evaluating risk and opportunity (as a human)

#4

Post by paul »

edw519 wrote: post #3

I think the most common technique is to ask ourselves, "What is the most likely outcome?", and if that outcome is good, then we do it. For those thinking logically, yes. Many others (not hn readers, or course) ask themselves, "What is everyone else doing?" Marge: What on earth possessed you to get an earring? Bart: Milhouse has one. Marge: If Milhouse jumped off a cliff... Bart: Milhouse jumped off a cliff? I'm there…

Yeah, people don't actually make decisions logically for the most part, but to the extent that there is any about of reasoning (or rationalizing), there is some technique to it.

I updated the post :)

Re: Paul Buchheit: Evaluating risk and opportunity (as a human)

#5

Post by lsb »

edw519 wrote: post #3

I think the most common technique is to ask ourselves, "What is the most likely outcome?", and if that outcome is good, then we do it. For those thinking logically, yes. Many others (not hn readers, or course) ask themselves, "What is everyone else doing?" Marge: What on earth possessed you to get an earring? Bart: Milhouse has one. Marge: If Milhouse jumped off a cliff... Bart: Milhouse jumped off a cliff? I'm there…

Obviously, your reference frame is different from a 10-year-old's.

In Bart's mind: the most likely outcome of jumping off a cliff is that I'm with my best friend, and personal injury at my age heals really easily.

Re: Paul Buchheit: Evaluating risk and opportunity (as a human)

#6

Post by cperciva »

edw519 wrote: post #3

I think the most common technique is to ask ourselves, "What is the most likely outcome?", and if that outcome is good, then we do it. For those thinking logically, yes. Many others (not hn readers, or course) ask themselves, "What is everyone else doing?" Marge: What on earth possessed you to get an earring? Bart: Milhouse has one. Marge: If Milhouse jumped off a cliff... Bart: Milhouse jumped off a cliff? I'm there…

Many others (not hn readers, or course) ask themselves, "What is everyone else doing?"

Are you seriously saying that HN readers aren't prone to jumping on bandwagons? To the extent that the HN readership is a microcosm of the silicon valley startup culture, this seems profoundly inaccurate -- I can't think of any group more prone to imitation than silicon valley startups.

(Obviously there are some exceptions -- and the exceptions are the successful companies which we all hear about.)

Re: Paul Buchheit: Evaluating risk and opportunity (as a human)

#8

Post by brlewis »

cperciva wrote: post #6
edw519 wrote: post #3

I think the most common technique is to ask ourselves, "What is the most likely outcome?", and if that outcome is good, then we do it. For those thinking logically, yes. Many others (not hn readers, or course) ask themselves, "What is everyone else doing?" Marge: What on earth possessed you to get an earring? Bart: Milhouse has one. Marge: If Milhouse jumped off a cliff... Bart: Milhouse jumped off a cliff? I'm there…

Many others (not hn readers, or course) ask themselves, "What is everyone else doing?" Are you seriously saying that HN readers aren't prone to jumping on bandwagons? To the extent that the HN readership is a microcosm of the silicon valley startup culture, this seems profoundly inaccurate -- I can't think of any group more prone to imitation than silicon valley startups. (Obviously there are some exceptions -- and t…

I used to jump on bandwagons, but then I changed and started thinking all decisions through on my own, because I noticed that's what everybody else on hn was doing.

Re: Paul Buchheit: Evaluating risk and opportunity (as a human)

#9

Post by timr »

I think about outcomes rationally, but these days, I tend to think about opportunity cost a lot more intently. Sure, if you tank a startup, you likely lose only your investment, and you'll probably learn a lot. Problem is, you've also just spent N years of your life doing little but working like crazy.

If you're lucky, you've got about 80 years to enjoy on this planet. You've got about 15 of those as a young adult. How much are they worth?

(And just to pre-empt the obvious reply: yes, you might enjoy working more than anything else. If so, more power to you. I'm only saying that you've got to take opportunity cost into account.)

Re: Paul Buchheit: Evaluating risk and opportunity (as a human)

#10

Post by dbul »

You can very roughly divide techies into a few groups: people who would rather work for a salary, people who are ambivalent about a salary job and starting a startup, and people who have made it their mission to start a startup.

For the first, there is probably some satisfaction in helping people's XML-based loan transactions reach the bank, etc. Y Combinator is perfect for the second group -- they can give it a shot and if they fail, hey, they'll probably have a great story to tell their interviewer. The last group probably realizes the odds are against them, but with enough attempts they think they'll make it (and if not they loved doing it anyway).

I'm definitely in the third group. The way I evaluate risk and opportunity is I imagine what kind of a life I could live: As an employee I could have a positive effect on thousands of people who need the utilities I'm building for them. As a researcher I might accomplish something on the order of curing Polio.

But I have too many things I want to do and it requires capital to get them all started. Otherwise, it would take many lifetimes to do them without capital. I want to experiment with creating projects that have a positive impact on society. So for me the risk is minimal considering if I don't try to create a successful startup, I'll be miserable. I'm just not the type of person who can settle for a job. Sometimes I wish I were, but I'm not.

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