AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf] • Hacker News Board

Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]

#121

Post by devonkim » Sat, Aug 16, 2014, 1:49 PM UTC

ModernMech wrote: post #90

robertfw wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't recommend this video highly enough - it does a great job of showing the science fact instead of contemplating science fiction, illustrating how technology that we have in development NOW is going to impact our economy. I have a feeling that this is an issue is going to creep up on us quickly, and I worry that our governments have proven themselves completely incapable of driving the discussion and making the…

As a roboticist, this video made me very angry. This is not a great showing of science fact, but a strange distortion of the current state of robotics to fit a particular narrative. By the end, it definitely ventures well into the realm of science fiction. I'll point out some of the most egregious examples. This is a pretty long post, but if you spent 15 minutes watching the video, the least you can do is spend 15 mi…

One thing that strikes me as peculiar about the self-service checkout argument creating more wealth is that it assumes that the store would not have received the revenue if they weren't open at the time. Perhaps this might work in certain urban areas, but even still some places culturally abhor the idea of shopping for anything 24/7. I've heard that Germany doesn't have that many stores open very late because the purchase can probably wait until the next day and people would both plan their days better and allow for more leisure time away from chores and work accordingly. Assumptions about consumer behavior should be researched and tested first especially when entering new markets.

Also, let's not forget that we now have a human needing to supervise these 24/7 bots. Graveyard shift work in any industry regardless of pay is not a pretty thing to witness with really high turnover rates and the health ramifications for encouraging it are probably not positive in the aggregate. Of course, we could employ remote workers to oversee machines in their regular time, but this usually results in the loss of the on-site job and the creation of lower-value jobs in developing markets due to geographic limitations for one of the obvious end results.

But good criticisms overall about the robot revolution alarmists on many common arguments. I can't help but agree given I'm a strong AI skeptic given what I've learned about AI through research and the tendency of the AI community to overestimate itself on achieving human-like behaviors grossly for decades with no exception while so much progress (and more importantly for continued investments in modern economies, immediate value) has been achieved with weak AI. The comparison that's most accurate is that we achieved human flight, but nobody would say that an airplane is "superior" to a bird's capabilities. A Jetsons like future has been dreamed of in various capacities since human being realized they could make machines to do work, but the nature of work just adapts with all of these inventions.

Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]

#122

Post by grondilu » Sat, Aug 16, 2014, 1:58 PM UTC

TeMPOraL wrote: post #120

josephagoss wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But isn't it easier to do away with capitalism altogether so that we can all be equal, no matter the effort we put in? This future of no capitalism people want scares the heck out of me, almost makes everything I've worked for pointless.

> This future of no capitalism people want scares the heck out of me, almost makes everything I've worked for pointless. The future of continued capitalism scares the heck out of me, because it's the future of more and more people living on subsistence level, slaving away all their lives for increasingly smaller group of wealthy people, until the whole thing either collapses or the economic machine optimizes all huma…

> slaving away all their lives

Well, the good news is that this won't be possible since they will soon be made useless by automation. You can't enslave someone who has no use for you.

Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]

#123

Post by JoeAltmaier » Sat, Aug 16, 2014, 2:00 PM UTC

devonkim wrote: post #121

ModernMech wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a roboticist, this video made me very angry. This is not a great showing of science fact, but a strange distortion of the current state of robotics to fit a particular narrative. By the end, it definitely ventures well into the realm of science fiction. I'll point out some of the most egregious examples. This is a pretty long post, but if you spent 15 minutes watching the video, the least you can do is spend 15 mi…

One thing that strikes me as peculiar about the self-service checkout argument creating more wealth is that it assumes that the store would not have received the revenue if they weren't open at the time. Perhaps this might work in certain urban areas, but even still some places culturally abhor the idea of shopping for anything 24/7. I've heard that Germany doesn't have that many stores open very late because the pur…

Its about if even one store is open late, then every store has to be. Because people go where the store is open. The closed store will absolutely lose those sales.

Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]

#124

Post by TeMPOraL » Sat, Aug 16, 2014, 2:11 PM UTC

grondilu wrote: post #122

TeMPOraL wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This future of no capitalism people want scares the heck out of me, almost makes everything I've worked for pointless. The future of continued capitalism scares the heck out of me, because it's the future of more and more people living on subsistence level, slaving away all their lives for increasingly smaller group of wealthy people, until the whole thing either collapses or the economic machine optimizes all huma…

> slaving away all their lives Well, the good news is that this won't be possible since they will soon be made useless by automation. You can't enslave someone who has no use for you.

Well, if even quality sex services get automated away in the end, then I guess we'll have no other choice than to say "so long and thanks to all the fish", followed by starving and dying.

Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]

#125

Post by Ma8ee » Sat, Aug 16, 2014, 2:38 PM UTC

vanderZwan wrote: post #102

e0m wrote: post #3

CGP Grey recently put out a video along very similar lines. Worth 15 mins: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU&list=UU2C_jShtL7...

He blatantly ignores the issue of energy constraints, more specifically the concept of embodied energy[0], which in the near future will be a very real very limiting factor that right now goes unnoticed because we're burning up energy reserves the earth has built up for hundreds of millions of years. If we do look at this from an energy spending point of view.. this robot/AI revolution is gonna have a few interesting…

> life is far more energy-efficient than machines for most tasks

I'll be blunt and say that that is just bullshit for quite obvious reasons. Your [1] does not support the claim.

Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]

#126

Post by grondilu » Sat, Aug 16, 2014, 2:45 PM UTC

TeMPOraL wrote: post #124

grondilu wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> slaving away all their lives Well, the good news is that this won't be possible since they will soon be made useless by automation. You can't enslave someone who has no use for you.

Well, if even quality sex services get automated away in the end, then I guess we'll have no other choice than to say "so long and thanks to all the fish", followed by starving and dying.

Unfortunately people usually riot instead. Hopefully they will get their ass kicked.

Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]

#127

Post by runeks » Sat, Aug 16, 2014, 3:08 PM UTC

devonkim wrote: post #121

ModernMech wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a roboticist, this video made me very angry. This is not a great showing of science fact, but a strange distortion of the current state of robotics to fit a particular narrative. By the end, it definitely ventures well into the realm of science fiction. I'll point out some of the most egregious examples. This is a pretty long post, but if you spent 15 minutes watching the video, the least you can do is spend 15 mi…

One thing that strikes me as peculiar about the self-service checkout argument creating more wealth is that it assumes that the store would not have received the revenue if they weren't open at the time. Perhaps this might work in certain urban areas, but even still some places culturally abhor the idea of shopping for anything 24/7. I've heard that Germany doesn't have that many stores open very late because the pur…

> I've heard that Germany doesn't have that many stores open very late because the purchase can probably wait until the next day and people would both plan their days better and allow for more leisure time away from chores and work accordingly.

Or maybe it's because they've had a federal law for 60 years that regulated open hours: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shopping_hours#Germany

Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]

#128

Post by runeks » Sat, Aug 16, 2014, 3:17 PM UTC

josephagoss wrote: post #94

grondilu wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This part in that future is actually made of shares in the stock market. If you want some, you have to buy it. Fortunately anyone can : it's a free market and you can enter with as little as a few hundreds bucks.

But isn't it easier to do away with capitalism altogether so that we can all be equal, no matter the effort we put in? This future of no capitalism people want scares the heck out of me, almost makes everything I've worked for pointless.

> > This part in that future is actually made of shares in the stock market. If you want some, you have to buy it.

> > Fortunately anyone can : it's a free market and you can enter with as little as a few hundreds bucks.

> But isn't it easier to do away with capitalism altogether [...]

Are you suggesting that it's easier to do away with capitalism than it is to buy stock in a company?

Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]

#129

Post by dqdo » Sat, Aug 16, 2014, 3:29 PM UTC

As a society, we need to ask ourselves two questions: (1) what is the purpose of work? and (2) what do people find valuable?

The premise of question 1 is that we should not work just for the sake of saying that we are working. Rather we should work because we are creating something of value for others and ourselves. I think that automation will have a profound impact on the economy by making certain types of work economically infeasible. But this is not necessarily a problem as long as people realize it and move on to work on more highly value areas. I believe that as individuals our desires are limitless and there will always be a demand for something. We just need to figure out what that demand is and work in that domain.

Overall automation will free us from many manual labor jobs and allow us to produce more art, poetry, mathematics, and science.

Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]

#130

Post by ewzimm » Sat, Aug 16, 2014, 3:50 PM UTC

dqdo wrote: post #129

As a society, we need to ask ourselves two questions: (1) what is the purpose of work? and (2) what do people find valuable? The premise of question 1 is that we should not work just for the sake of saying that we are working. Rather we should work because we are creating something of value for others and ourselves. I think that automation will have a profound impact on the economy by making certain types of work eco…

I think we also have to consider conservatives who believe that there is inherent value in certain lifestyles that is independent of the products of those lifestyles. Automated labor will also free us to compete in whatever inefficient way we want. Just as garment technology has not stopped people from knitting, automated labor will still allow people to choose to be Amish.

Personally, I think we can find better things to do than work most jobs that exist today. We need to be open to the idea of perpetual changes in what we can and should do with our time.