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AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]

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Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]

#41

Post by furyofantares »

robertfw wrote: post #21
e0m wrote: post #3

CGP Grey recently put out a video along very similar lines. Worth 15 mins: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU&list=UU2C_jShtL7...

I can't recommend this video highly enough - it does a great job of showing the science fact instead of contemplating science fiction, illustrating how technology that we have in development NOW is going to impact our economy. I have a feeling that this is an issue is going to creep up on us quickly, and I worry that our governments have proven themselves completely incapable of driving the discussion and making the…

I don't understand why the video goes through the history of technology reducing the need for types of labor and doesn't acknowledge that we keep thinking of new things to do. The closest he comes to making an argument that we won't keep making new jobs is that we didn't keep making new jobs _for horses_ which seems to me like arguing that we didn't keep making new jobs for spears and hammers and pencils.

I have concerns about this myself, but I don't find that video remotely convincing.

Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]

#42

Post by aivosha »

robertfw wrote: post #21
e0m wrote: post #3

CGP Grey recently put out a video along very similar lines. Worth 15 mins: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU&list=UU2C_jShtL7...

I can't recommend this video highly enough - it does a great job of showing the science fact instead of contemplating science fiction, illustrating how technology that we have in development NOW is going to impact our economy. I have a feeling that this is an issue is going to creep up on us quickly, and I worry that our governments have proven themselves completely incapable of driving the discussion and making the…

In the video, the analogy between horses loosing out to cars and humans loosing out to AI is false. Humans are the ones building the AI. Horses however did not build the cars. Its a very important distinction we are not at a liberty to dismiss.

Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]

#43

Post by [deleted] »

pacala wrote: post #12
elleferrer wrote: post #4

There will be a bright future for our growing aging population.

There will be a bright future for our capital owning population. There is a weak correlation between old people and capital ownership and easy to mistake the two if inferring from the age axis, e.g. person X owns more capital at 50 than at 25. However, this doesn't generalize well when doing a cross section at a given age, see for example the average savings for a 50 year old, which is a meager $43,797 http://www.sta…

[deleted]

Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]

#44

Post by Afforess »

furyofantares wrote: post #41
robertfw wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't recommend this video highly enough - it does a great job of showing the science fact instead of contemplating science fiction, illustrating how technology that we have in development NOW is going to impact our economy. I have a feeling that this is an issue is going to creep up on us quickly, and I worry that our governments have proven themselves completely incapable of driving the discussion and making the…

I don't understand why the video goes through the history of technology reducing the need for types of labor and doesn't acknowledge that we keep thinking of new things to do. The closest he comes to making an argument that we won't keep making new jobs is that we didn't keep making new jobs _for horses_ which seems to me like arguing that we didn't keep making new jobs for spears and hammers and pencils. I have conc…

CGP Grey went through the analogy of horses and the history of technology to emphasize the line of thinking that the invention of new technology will lead to the creation of new jobs is a fallacy and false.

In the past, new technological changes lead to the demise of horses. There were no "new" jobs that horses could fulfill. So it will be with humans.

Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]

#45

Post by grondilu »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #25
pacala wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There will be a bright future for our capital owning population. There is a weak correlation between old people and capital ownership and easy to mistake the two if inferring from the age axis, e.g. person X owns more capital at 50 than at 25. However, this doesn't generalize well when doing a cross section at a given age, see for example the average savings for a 50 year old, which is a meager $43,797 http://www.sta…

That's why we need to move away capitalism before it's too late, if we want to have part in that bright future.

This part in that future is actually made of shares in the stock market. If you want some, you have to buy it. Fortunately anyone can : it's a free market and you can enter with as little as a few hundreds bucks.

Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]

#46

Post by AndrewKemendo »

furyofantares wrote: post #41
robertfw wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't recommend this video highly enough - it does a great job of showing the science fact instead of contemplating science fiction, illustrating how technology that we have in development NOW is going to impact our economy. I have a feeling that this is an issue is going to creep up on us quickly, and I worry that our governments have proven themselves completely incapable of driving the discussion and making the…

I don't understand why the video goes through the history of technology reducing the need for types of labor and doesn't acknowledge that we keep thinking of new things to do. The closest he comes to making an argument that we won't keep making new jobs is that we didn't keep making new jobs _for horses_ which seems to me like arguing that we didn't keep making new jobs for spears and hammers and pencils. I have conc…

he actually directly addresses this by stating the standard argument that low skill/resolution jobs are replaced by higher skill/resolution jobs.

The issue is not that there will not be new jobs, the issue is that the automation of these new jobs is accelerating - so people cannot adapt fast enough to be able to competently take these new jobs as their old jobs become obsolete.

Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]

#47

Post by swalsh »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #25
pacala wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There will be a bright future for our capital owning population. There is a weak correlation between old people and capital ownership and easy to mistake the two if inferring from the age axis, e.g. person X owns more capital at 50 than at 25. However, this doesn't generalize well when doing a cross section at a given age, see for example the average savings for a 50 year old, which is a meager $43,797 http://www.sta…

That's why we need to move away capitalism before it's too late, if we want to have part in that bright future.

Ah, but that's the hard part. Capitalism does provide some benefits. For example it is magnificent for encouraging economic growth, which for most of the world is essential. There are still large swaths of the global population living in poverty in first world and third world situations.

What I believe will happen is most of the world will look like china. If you were to look at them maybe 10 years ago, what you would see is economic growth fueled by cheap exports. Today, they are starting to see a middle class stable enough to support their own economy. Global trade is still essential, but it is now only a part of the pie, rather than the whole pie. At the same time you'll seeing a middle class grow in china, we're starting to see manufacturing move out of the country searching for cheaper pastures.

I think its a model that will repeat itself across the world. First comes a improved political environment, than a hearty shipping infrastructure is created, and then business and global trade starts. Repeat.

I believe capitalism won't be replaced, it'll fade away.

Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]

#48

Post by fred_durst »

e0m wrote: post #3

CGP Grey recently put out a video along very similar lines. Worth 15 mins: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU&list=UU2C_jShtL7...

I'm very glad this video talks about the most likely first to be removed.

I'm so confused why everyone thinks the least expensive to purchase(low skill labor) will be replaced first when it requires the most expensive version of AI(robots).

Some more insight on this is research into why Wal-Marts did not cause as much employment loss as feared, but instead removed "community leaders" from the area. Because Wal-Mart did all of it's professional services back at corporate headquarters, the area it moved into lost all of those people. The first line of true AI will be very similar to a WalMart moving into town.

Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]

#49

Post by Afforess »

aivosha wrote: post #42
robertfw wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't recommend this video highly enough - it does a great job of showing the science fact instead of contemplating science fiction, illustrating how technology that we have in development NOW is going to impact our economy. I have a feeling that this is an issue is going to creep up on us quickly, and I worry that our governments have proven themselves completely incapable of driving the discussion and making the…

In the video, the analogy between horses loosing out to cars and humans loosing out to AI is false. Humans are the ones building the AI. Horses however did not build the cars. Its a very important distinction we are not at a liberty to dismiss.

Analogies are not meant to be perfect representations of an argument, but rather a facsimile that helps the reader compare and contrast. Your nitpick is therefore irrelevant.

Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]

#50

Post by Dewie »

furyofantares wrote: post #41
robertfw wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't recommend this video highly enough - it does a great job of showing the science fact instead of contemplating science fiction, illustrating how technology that we have in development NOW is going to impact our economy. I have a feeling that this is an issue is going to creep up on us quickly, and I worry that our governments have proven themselves completely incapable of driving the discussion and making the…

I don't understand why the video goes through the history of technology reducing the need for types of labor and doesn't acknowledge that we keep thinking of new things to do. The closest he comes to making an argument that we won't keep making new jobs is that we didn't keep making new jobs _for horses_ which seems to me like arguing that we didn't keep making new jobs for spears and hammers and pencils. I have conc…

He addressed this by talking about how there really aren't being created many new kinds of jobs, and that the large bulk of employment these days are in professions that have had a long history already.
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