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Ask HN: Three years to startup

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Ask HN: Three years to startup

#1

Post by matt1 »

I'm an aspiring startup founder and am looking for advice on how to proceed.

Due to some other obligations, I have about three years until I can pursue a startup full time, at which point I'll be 27. Until then, it's nights and weekends for me. For the last year I've been getting caught up on web development and am now limited more by a lack of strategy than a lack of technical competence.

In an ideal world, in late 2012 I'd like to have a profitable, growing startup that puts me in a good position to apply to YC and the other seed stage start programs. I'd also like to be in a position where I'm not entirely dependent on getting accepted in order to be successful.

I'm in a bit of a good position to gamble since time is on my side. Am I better off working on a a project that takes 4-6 month to build and launch or one that takes 18-24 months? With the former, I can take more risks and can simply start over if it doesn't work out, but I feel like there might be more long term value in picking an ambitious, 1-2 year project. The downside, of course, is that I'm essentially going all-in on a single endeavor.

Additional details which may be relevant:

My business knowledge is slightly above knowing the differences between an LLC and an S Corp, but below having created one or knowing what to do with it if I did. I've been slowly becoming fluent in business lingo, but usually if I have a choice between hacking and reading about business structures I choose the former.

Also, I'm not good with system administration. Again, given a choice between learning a framework/building an app and learning about load balancing and things like that, I've chosen the former.

In summary, I have three years of nights and weekends to prepare to found a startup and want to maximize my chances of success. What's my gameplan?

PS: If you're in a similar boat and want to try building something together, let me know.

Re: Ask HN: Three years to startup

#2

Post by rewind »

I don't have comments regarding the entire post, but I definitely have one regarding the size of the project: stick to something smaller that you can push out (at least in limited form) in your four-to-six-month timetable. If you choose something that will take you almost two years to launch but you can't commit full-time to it, then there will (most-likely) always be others with a similar idea who can work more hours or get their product out faster. Even if you didn't see competitors for a whole year, you'll still be stuck in part-time mode. On a two-year, part-time schedule, you won't be able to react at all to movement or changes in the market you decide to go into.

That's why I'd suggest sticking with something a bit smaller and a bit more manageable that can launch early and grow slowly over time, which is much better-suited to your schedule and existing commitments.

Re: Ask HN: Three years to startup

#3

Post by skolor »

Do you have both a 4-6 month idea and a 1-2 year idea? If you do, pick the one you are most passionate about. Keep in mind that 3 years is long time, its likely that whatever time table you start out with will be completely warped by the time you could commit full time to it.

Re: Ask HN: Three years to startup

#4

Post by edw519 »

My business knowledge is slightly above knowing the differences between an LLC and an S Corp, but below having created one or knowing what to do with it if I did. I've been slowly becoming fluent in business lingo, but usually if I have a choice between hacking and reading about business structures I choose the former.

Everything you mention in this paragraph about "business knowledge" falls into my category, "Details to worry about later."

You omit, however, the single most important business issue of all, the only one of concern for now, and in fact, one the you must be concerned about now: consumers. Whether you call them customers or users, someone will be using your software, right? Then you better find a way to get to know them now. This is a critical component of application development, every bit as important as the technology.

Lots of things about your consumers could change between now and deployment, but you have plenty of time to incorporate them into your plan. So make sure you do.

Re: Ask HN: Three years to startup

#5

Post by petervandijck »

Ok: 1. How can you know that you still want to do this same startup in 3 years? You might get married. Get a kid. Get a great job. Loose your legs. Google might have launched your idea and killed your chances. Just saying. 2. A project that takes 2 years to launch is a recipe for failure. Really. A startup should take, say, 6 months to launch first beta, another 6 months to get really going and get users, during the second year you slowly realize it's not going anywhere, try some alternative approached, in the 3th year you shut it down. That's typical. No way you can work on something for 3 years, launch it and not be hugely dissapointed by its reception on the market.

So taking 1 and 2 together: 1. Accept that you won't know what you're doing in 3 years. 2. Accept that you can't plan a successful startup 3 years in advance. 3. Start a small project, one you can launch in 6 months, and consider it a learning experience. Then, by the time your 3 years are over, you'll be ready to start a new startup, fulltime, having learnt a lot.

Do NOT plan a 3-year commitment in advance for a startup.

Re: Ask HN: Three years to startup

#6

Post by noodle »

simple: your gameplan is to sit down and start working. push to get the minimum viable product - the minimum product that will bring in users/feedback/revenue. plan your initial timelines around this instead of the time you need to do everything you want.

learn more about the things you need to know when they come up. you don't need full-time availabitlity to make a startup happen.

Re: Ask HN: Three years to startup

#7

Post by jeromec »

As others have mentioned 3 years is a long time, especially in web technology. You say you can't commit full-time for 3 years, but what happens if you launch the 4-6 month one and it takes off (but is not profitable) and demands your time? I don't know if your other obligations can be set aside. The 18-24 month project may be better, since you can work on it for so long, but external forces on that timeframe could either work for or against you. For example, if your idea is so advanced that the market is not really ready for it then waiting would be better. Conversely, the market could be so ripe someone else is bound to release something similar before you.

Re: Ask HN: Three years to startup

#8

Post by alexsolo »

rewind wrote: post #2

I don't have comments regarding the entire post, but I definitely have one regarding the size of the project: stick to something smaller that you can push out (at least in limited form) in your four-to-six-month timetable. If you choose something that will take you almost two years to launch but you can't commit full-time to it, then there will (most-likely) always be others with a similar idea who can work more hour…

Also keep in mind that your estimates may be way off (on the optimistic side).

For my startup, we initially thought the idea would take 2 weeks to do. In reality, it took closer to 3 months. In my case, once we started working on the idea, we discovered it was quite a bit more complex than we anticipated.

Re: Ask HN: Three years to startup

#9

Post by vijayr »

Am I better off working on a a project that takes 4-6 month to build and launch or one that takes 18-24 months?

Why not have both? What I mean is, take a big project, break it into smaller pieces of 3 months each (features 1-10 in first iteration, 11-20 in the second and so on). Since you'll be releasing early, you can gauge the response to your app, and adjust the next iteration according to the feedback (or even drop the project completely if needed)

Re: Ask HN: Three years to startup

#10

Post by MicahWedemeyer »

I've been doing the nights & weekends thing for exactly 3 years today (9/11). My project is http://www.obsidianportal.com

We're profitable but I still need a dayjob to pay the bills, so take my advice for what it's worth.

1. Shorter release schedule is always preferable. Like others have said 2 years to launch is a really bad idea. However, my question is: Where did you come up with these numbers? Do you have 2 different projects, or are you setting arbitrary timelines and want to fit a project to that timeline?

2. Going all-in is not a bad thing. I'm currently a "parallel entrepreneur" and it's very hard. It's much easier to focus on a single thing and hit it 100% rather than focus on a lot of things at 20%.

3. Sysadmin is easy: sign up for a service where someone else handles it. As a Ruby on Rails guy, I heavily recommend Blue Box hosting. It's like having a sysadmin on the team, and it's not much more expensive than Slicehost. It's a good skill to learn, but I'm with you: let someone else do that stuff.

4. It sounds like you need an idea. I know everyone says it's the execution, not the idea, but you need _some_ idea to execute on. I would suggest using your time now to try and find 2 things: an idea and a co-founder. Going to local meetups, talking to people, and such would be good things to do at this stage. Find something you can be passionate about, or else you'll never find the motivation to spend your nights & weekends on it.

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