While I do see the value of validation, this is not a silver bullet. People try to simplify things, find patterns, but this cannot always work. There are so many reasons why I would not want to validate things: - Sometimes, people will not tell you what they want, because often they do not know what they want, until you show it to them. Someone smarter than me said this before. - People judge from their experience. Y…
>"There are no rules for good photographs, there are just good photographs". There are also lots and lots (and more lots) of bad photographs. There might not be specific rules for taking really stand-out pictures, but there sure are good rules for what not to do.
How To Validate Your Business Idea By Testing A Hypothesis
11–20 of 62 posts
Re: How To Validate Your Business Idea By Testing A Hypothesis
#12Re: How To Validate Your Business Idea By Testing A Hypothesis
#13-> It still not easy, people were used to candles at that time. Edison did not study the candle making process or the problems of people with candles. His genius was in putting together the solution.
Apart from this, the article is nice indeed.
Re: How To Validate Your Business Idea By Testing A Hypothesis
#141) Years ago I started a small side-business with a few colleagues. It was a web-based service for a very specific group of clients. Best of all: The idea had already been validated. We had our first paying customer before we even built the product. And we quickly found a few other customers. But after a few sign-ups things were not looking so good anymore. Even though our early adopters were well known in the industry, other companies would not follow. Everyone we talked to loved the product, but as we had to learn the hard way nobody was willing to pay for it. Some even went so far as to implement possibly illegal solutions instead of paying us a few bucks.
Lesson learned: Even if you talk to a few possible customers, question hard if those really are representative of your target audience. Also, liking a product/idea is not the same as being willing (or able) to pay for it.
2) A while back I wanted to find out if there would be any commercial interest in an app I had already built. So I set up a landing page and collected email addresses. Since I had already built the app I could easily hand out demo accounts for every interested party. I quickly collected around 60 addresses and set them all up with a demo account. Only a single person ever logged in at all! I sent out reminder emails but did not get a single response. To this day I do not fully understand what went wrong.
Lesson learned: Newsletter- or Beta-signups from your landing page is NOT the same as validation for your idea.
Re: How To Validate Your Business Idea By Testing A Hypothesis
#15This kind of advice pops up on HN from time to time and while I believe it to be valuable, I guess it is at least incomplete. Here are two stories from my failed ventures to augment this advice: 1) Years ago I started a small side-business with a few colleagues. It was a web-based service for a very specific group of clients. Best of all: The idea had already been validated. We had our first paying customer before we…
Re: How To Validate Your Business Idea By Testing A Hypothesis
#16"After all, it took Thomas Edison hundreds of attempts before he invented the light bulb" -> It still not easy, people were used to candles at that time. Edison did not study the candle making process or the problems of people with candles. His genius was in putting together the solution. Apart from this, the article is nice indeed.
^This, and this http://www.helpscout.net/blog/why-steve-jobs-never-listened-...
Re: How To Validate Your Business Idea By Testing A Hypothesis
#17This kind of advice pops up on HN from time to time and while I believe it to be valuable, I guess it is at least incomplete. Here are two stories from my failed ventures to augment this advice: 1) Years ago I started a small side-business with a few colleagues. It was a web-based service for a very specific group of clients. Best of all: The idea had already been validated. We had our first paying customer before we…
Re: How To Validate Your Business Idea By Testing A Hypothesis
#18"After all, it took Thomas Edison hundreds of attempts before he invented the light bulb" -> It still not easy, people were used to candles at that time. Edison did not study the candle making process or the problems of people with candles. His genius was in putting together the solution. Apart from this, the article is nice indeed.
> It still not easy, people were used to candles at that time. Edison did not study the candle making process or the problems of people with candles. His genius was in putting together the solution. ^This, and this http://www.helpscout.net/blog/why-steve-jobs-never-listened-...
Re: How To Validate Your Business Idea By Testing A Hypothesis
#19A layman's approach will almost certainly be evaluated on a subjective/emotional basis. i.e. "We are doing something great!" "Everyone is happy." "I have so many customers" "Funding is in!" "I got a great review on tech crunch three months ago"
A more scientific approach is to first define the question in such a way that it can be measured. So let's say a business that does well does three things:
Does not lose money, Has happy customers(low support calls/emails, high reviews,product is used), Has happy employees (low turnover, gets quality work done (measurable by issue tracking)
Now you can say: Does my business meet the requirements for a successful business. If no, write down those numbers. That is now your control and baseline.
It is time to experiment. It's best not to change more than one thing at a time in science so you know exactly what the effect is vs the control.
Lets say you realize you're losing money and your customers aren't happy. You do some research and come to believe (not know) that it's because the login screen is incredibly awkward. Google analytics shows that the bounce rate for the front page is huge so there's some data to back this up. It's time to form your first hypothesis.
My business isn't doing well because the login page is so incredibly awkward. If I fix the login page the business will do better.
Remember that both the "awkward" and "do better" while subjective declarations have actual metrics to back them up: bounce rate on analytics and the previously defined metrics for a good business.
Now you do the experiment defined earlier: fix the login page.
Now you collect data. If your bounce rate goes down, your customers are happier and start paying the monthly fee. Then you have solved your problem and you know with a very high degree of certainty how you have solved your problem.
Now let's say you looked at the data at the end of this experiment and noticed a decrease from the control you set a while back. Well, obviously that was not the problem (or at least not 100% the problem, part of science is knowing how certain to be about things) Maybe next you can define the problem as: the site is buggy, issues aren't resolved quickly. If I observe my employees I can see that they spend a lot of time staring at the 98inch projector screen I set up in my 'cool office' instead of coding. Now you can do a trial run of turning off the projector on some days vs others and seeing if the work goes up, stays the same, or goes down. Or you can discuss the problem with your employees and see if they have input. Then define the experiment using that; just don't forget to actually measure something objective at the end of the day.
This way of thinking is invaluable. You can drill down exactly to the problem core. Waste less resources. Argue less. Most importantly you can actually sit down at the end of the day and prove that you have solved a problem with actual data that cannot be easily disputed, and if you've really done it right the experiment can be repeated and have the same result each time.
Re: How To Validate Your Business Idea By Testing A Hypothesis
#20This kind of advice pops up on HN from time to time and while I believe it to be valuable, I guess it is at least incomplete. Here are two stories from my failed ventures to augment this advice: 1) Years ago I started a small side-business with a few colleagues. It was a web-based service for a very specific group of clients. Best of all: The idea had already been validated. We had our first paying customer before we…
A great thing to do is when you're validating products you ask the prospect how much they'll pay. Then say "Ok, so if I put a contract in front of you that says you'll pay $x if I deliver this product you will sign it?"
You'll find out very quickly whether someone is just being nice or whether they are serious.