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Oversize Expectations for the Airbus A380

nytimes.com

41–50 of 52 posts

Re: Oversize Expectations for the Airbus A380

#41

Do any ordinary travelers care about the type of plane they're on? Do they even know before they get to the airport? If I had to choose between an old 737 with a 4 hour flight, and an A380 with a 6 hour flight (including the layover) there's just no question. And I can appreciate the presence of a bar in the back! It just doesn't matter that much. It seems obvious that an airline is going to focus on initial costs, f…

> Do any ordinary travelers care about the type of plane they're on?

Depends on the definitions you choose. If you define an "ordinary traveler" as "one who doesn't care what type of plane they're on", then no, an ordinary traveler doesn't care what type of plane they're on.

Speaking for myself: the A380 is much quieter than any other plane I've been on. For 15-hour trans-Pacific flights, that's a big deal.

Re: Oversize Expectations for the Airbus A380

#42
post #25

It's interesting how the airline industry has evolved. Years ago going from Australia to Europe typically meant going on the "kangaroo route" [1], typically via Singapore (the Qantas/BA/Singapore connection last year was replaced with a Qantas/Emirate/Dubai alliance). If you flew to continental Europe you often ended up flying to London and catching a local flight. I visited the US in the 90s and ended up using US Ai…

> such boondoggles as the LA-SF "high speed" rail

That thing is way beyond a "boondoggle". It makes no business sense. So there's got to be some serious graft involved.

To your point about "bigger planes", instead of spending $30B to build this train to nowhere, the govt could instead go out and lease ten A380 airplanes and dedicate them to flying between San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego, and Sacramento. Even if they lost $1B a year subsidizing this, it would still be much much cheaper than building this train.

Although, in fairness, if high speed rail were done "right", it might be able to sort-of work (even though it never makes money anywhere in the world!). But right now this thing is being built in the middle of nowhere, presumably because acquiring right-of-way on a more direct route would be too expensive. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d1/Statewide...

Re: Oversize Expectations for the Airbus A380

#43
post #22

Does anyone have any data for which plane is more fuel efficient per passenger? Probably the 787?

It's hard to find a lot of hard data on either plane, but the 787 has been stated as being 20% more efficient than the 767, and the A380 has been stated as having a per passenger fuel consumption of 81 passenger miles per gallon. So, using the figures I found on wiki [1], it looks like the 787 is fairly considerably, as in using ~75% of the fuel, more efficient than the 787. The A380 may be a big plane, but it's a fairly conventional plane, all things considered. I imagine that if there were a revamp of it with more carbon fiber usage, it could get a lot more interesting.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_economy_in_aircraft

Re: Oversize Expectations for the Airbus A380

#44
post #34
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If connecting passengers never went through additional security, this man would still be alive: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Van_Tuong_Nguyen

He had a four-hour layover in Singapore. Did he leave the secure area during that time, even though he was not required to?

No need to do that, because Singapore and many other airports have screening at each individual gate. You go through a metal detector right before the waiting area at your specific gate.

Re: Oversize Expectations for the Airbus A380

#45
post #25

It's interesting how the airline industry has evolved. Years ago going from Australia to Europe typically meant going on the "kangaroo route" [1], typically via Singapore (the Qantas/BA/Singapore connection last year was replaced with a Qantas/Emirate/Dubai alliance). If you flew to continental Europe you often ended up flying to London and catching a local flight. I visited the US in the 90s and ended up using US Ai…

> such boondoggles as the LA-SF "high speed" rail That thing is way beyond a "boondoggle". It makes no business sense. So there's got to be some serious graft involved. To your point about "bigger planes", instead of spending $30B to build this train to nowhere, the govt could instead go out and lease ten A380 airplanes and dedicate them to flying between San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego, and Sacramento. Even if…

HSR is not simply graft, although it certainly could be implemented as such. Allow me to give some examples.

When you deploy bigger planes you also need bigger infrastructure: The A380, for example, has had some delays due to new requirements. [0] And the A380 itself is not the largest plane ever built [1] - the sizes we've standardized on are an economic tradeoff of land availability, energy consumption, and carrying capacity.

Finally, it's not just planes that a train competes against, but automobiles; simply, if more people drive, we waste more energy. The state's planners have run the numbers and determined that HSR will diversify the transit capacity cost load and make it less risky to hit capacity targets 20 years out. [2]

In current urban planning practice, rails are preferred as a way to encourage dense and sustainable development; when you go downtown-to-downtown, the land value around those hub stops skyrockets. The Japanese rail system was built around this principle, encouraging the rail companies to be real estate investors as well as transportation companies - as a result, the trains go to nearly every major destination. In the case of CA HSR, the stops in the Central Valley will become secondary hubs for businesses that want equal transit times between SF and LA. This puts the Central Valley towns on a more stable economic footing and is good for the overall welfare of the state.

[0] http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/re...

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_large_aircraft

[2] http://www.transformca.org/sites/default/files/moving_ahead_... (page 31)

Re: Oversize Expectations for the Airbus A380

#46
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> such boondoggles as the LA-SF "high speed" rail That thing is way beyond a "boondoggle". It makes no business sense. So there's got to be some serious graft involved. To your point about "bigger planes", instead of spending $30B to build this train to nowhere, the govt could instead go out and lease ten A380 airplanes and dedicate them to flying between San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego, and Sacramento. Even if…

HSR is not simply graft, although it certainly could be implemented as such. Allow me to give some examples. When you deploy bigger planes you also need bigger infrastructure: The A380, for example, has had some delays due to new requirements. [0] And the A380 itself is not the largest plane ever built [1] - the sizes we've standardized on are an economic tradeoff of land availability, energy consumption, and carryin…

Thanks for providing a more balanced viewpoint on high speed rail. It's a really big gamble, I hope for California's sake that it pays off.

Re: Oversize Expectations for the Airbus A380

#47
post #29
post #26

One factor in favour of the single direct flight in smaller aircraft is the horrendous efficiency of airports. The amount of time spent queuing (checking in, enduring security humiliation, and in departure lounges) is usually a very significant part of the total travel time. And having to do it more than once makes it more than twice as tedious. I recently travelled from London to south-east France by train, and it w…

> I recently travelled from London to south-east France by train, and it was a joy. No check-in, hardly noticed security scanning because there wasn't a queue, changing trains in Paris took half an hour (including a metro ride). Yet it's completely irrational why there are not the same security measures taken for train passengers. A bomb on a high speed train would lead to the death of hundred of people as well. Mayb…

> It's completely irrational why there are not the same security measures taken for train passengers

No, it's quite rational (whereas knee-jerk calls for trains to adopt airport-style security theatre are not). High-speed trains and airplanes are very different in their "exposure" to terrorist activity, and in their operating environment.

For instance:

(1) Airplanes are, relatively speaking, very fragile; a relatively small bomb can bring one down, and if one goes down, 99% of the time, all on board will be killed. For a terrorist, it's a tempting target.

Trains, on the other hand, even high-speed trains, are relatively quite robust, and even severe train accidents typically only kill a small fraction of the passengers. Trains are extremely long (and the passenger density of high-speed trains relatively low compared to local trains), and the direct effect of a blast would be limited to those in the immediate vicinity. The most you can hope for is to derail the train (which is not at all a given), and even a derailing passenger-train is likely to have many survivors. The worst train accidents in terms of deaths have been due to the effects of extremely specific locations.

(2) As famously shown in 9/11, airplanes can be used as (extraordinarily effective) missiles; if you manage to take one over, you can aim at a wide variety of targets. Trains basically cannot be used this way. So if you attack a train, you basically are limited to killing passengers—and as point (1) noted, even that is fairly difficult.

(3) Once an airplane is in flight, they're pretty much out of reach. Trains, on the other, because they travel on the ground, are exposed to trackside attack. If you want to attack a train (for whatever reason), your best bet is to place a large bomb by the side of the track, not to try smuggling one on board. [That this has, mostly, not been done is probably more a testament to the low "terrorism yield" from attacking trains than to the difficulty of doing it.]

Because of this, the benefit of securing passengers is far lower for trains than it is for airplanes.

(4) Because one of the big advantages of trains is easy and fast boarding and disembarking of passengers, at multiple points, with relatively minimal infrastructure and staffing, the costs of extreme security would be far more prohibitive for trains than for airplanes. Given that the advantages of such security would be, at best, very dubious, the costs obviously tend to dominate the discussion.

Attacking a train, even a high-speed train, is much more akin to simply attacking any crowded location—a club, a restaurant, a theatre—than it is to attacking an airplane. [Because of this, an attack on a crowded local train is likely to be more effective than an attack on high-speed rail.]

You can cause economic effects by damaging infrastructure, but even that is unlikely to be significant.

So basically, (a) trains are just not that attractive a target for terrorism, and (b) the (extreme) costs of airport-style security would not justified by the (very minimal) benefits. Despite the overlap in the service they provide, airplanes and trains are simply very different in many ways.

Re: Oversize Expectations for the Airbus A380

#48
post #2

Seems like a rather US-based perspective. It's true that no US-based airline has bought one. That's because the US has so many cities , that it makes sense for airlines to serve (say) SEA-NRT and SFO-NRT with separate smaller planes rather than just one honking big plane from SFO-NRT. Countries whose airlines have bought A380s are countries where the vast majority of international air traffic is concentrated through…

Very true. I am actually surprised BA hasn't ordered more. Especially as Willie Walsh alluded to how much their customers like them. LHR is slot constrained as are others around the world. No better way than using a slot with as many customers as possible in a magnificent plane like the A380.

Re: Oversize Expectations for the Airbus A380

#49
post #22

Does anyone have any data for which plane is more fuel efficient per passenger? Probably the 787?

It's hard to find a lot of hard data on either plane, but the 787 has been stated as being 20% more efficient than the 767, and the A380 has been stated as having a per passenger fuel consumption of 81 passenger miles per gallon. So, using the figures I found on wiki [1], it looks like the 787 is fairly considerably, as in using ~75% of the fuel, more efficient than the 787. The A380 may be a big plane, but it's a fa…

If Airbus NEO's the engines with Rolls Royce Advance and stretches the frame to a possible A380-900 I'd venture a guess and say that gap could be closed, especially on a CASM basis. Provided they keep the production facilities rolling until such a change might happen in the 2020s.

Re: Oversize Expectations for the Airbus A380

#50
post #25

It's interesting how the airline industry has evolved. Years ago going from Australia to Europe typically meant going on the "kangaroo route" [1], typically via Singapore (the Qantas/BA/Singapore connection last year was replaced with a Qantas/Emirate/Dubai alliance). If you flew to continental Europe you often ended up flying to London and catching a local flight. I visited the US in the 90s and ended up using US Ai…

I'm with you all the way until the HSR between LA-SF. There's 100s of reasons why it's mismanaged (starting to build the line in the middle of nowhere, which later politicians will use to prove that 'no one' uses the line; it's horrendous cost (why?), the slow speed (why?), the lack of local public transport on both ends etc). But arguing that more seats between LAX and SFO is the answer is something I'd have to disagree with these days. Flying in the US is a huge pain with it's security theatre. 90% of the time I drive from LA to SF rather than fly. It almost takes the same amount of time, especially considering I'd need car transport on both ends anyway to get to my destination.
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