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Oversize Expectations for the Airbus A380

nytimes.com

11–20 of 52 posts

Re: Oversize Expectations for the Airbus A380

#11
post #2

Seems like a rather US-based perspective. It's true that no US-based airline has bought one. That's because the US has so many cities , that it makes sense for airlines to serve (say) SEA-NRT and SFO-NRT with separate smaller planes rather than just one honking big plane from SFO-NRT. Countries whose airlines have bought A380s are countries where the vast majority of international air traffic is concentrated through…

As the article noted, this isn't just a US thing and actually isn't just an A380 thing. The A380 is just a very high-profile victim of it. The problems are twofold: 1. Four-engine airliners, regardless of size, are losing, basically worldwide, to twin-engine airliners with better fuel consumption. This is why the A380 and 747-8 sales are sluggish. This is why the A340 buyback program exists (airlines can't get rid of…

> airline market as a whole is shifting away from the "have a single massive international hub and send all flights there" model

Dubai airport is closing in on Heathrow at the #1 spot. If long-haul traffic through Dubai continues to increase, will this change demand for A380s by non-Emirates airlines? http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World's_busiest_airports_by_i...

Re: Oversize Expectations for the Airbus A380

#12
post #2

Seems like a rather US-based perspective. It's true that no US-based airline has bought one. That's because the US has so many cities , that it makes sense for airlines to serve (say) SEA-NRT and SFO-NRT with separate smaller planes rather than just one honking big plane from SFO-NRT. Countries whose airlines have bought A380s are countries where the vast majority of international air traffic is concentrated through…

Plus any US airline which purchased the A380 would get negative PR from it. While most US airline companies operate airbus aircrafts, the A380 was really marked within the US as "Us. Vs. them" type aircraft (not least of it as it was a flagship) where it was American manufacturing under attack (Boeing 747) by a foreign competitor. So the first US airline company who buys one is going to get attacked by every single "…

> Plus any US airline which purchased the A380 would get negative PR from it.

Yes, the airline would get negative PR. But not for the reason you claim. The article has the real reason:

   Shares of United would plunge at least 10 percent
   if it bought A380s, according to one analyst,
   because of concerns that they would bring too much
   capacity into the market. 
If you add up all the US airline profits and losses in their history, until recently the sum would be negative. US airlines routinely enter and exit bankruptcy. Now they're finally making money again. Big money.

So it would be insane for US airlines to buy the A380 now. But not for "Us. Vs. them" reasons. For much smarter business reasons.

Re: Oversize Expectations for the Airbus A380

#13
post #2

Seems like a rather US-based perspective. It's true that no US-based airline has bought one. That's because the US has so many cities , that it makes sense for airlines to serve (say) SEA-NRT and SFO-NRT with separate smaller planes rather than just one honking big plane from SFO-NRT. Countries whose airlines have bought A380s are countries where the vast majority of international air traffic is concentrated through…

If you live anywhere near Heathrow then you will see a lot of A380's. In fact it is hard to imagine there are so few of them given how many go flying overhead. Heathrow is a busy airport operating at full capacity. The A380 therefore makes complete sense, there is no other way to increase capacity apart from bigger planes.

Hence, from the perspective of anyone living in West London, you have to wonder why airlines would buy anything else. It is all a matter of perspective, very much so. The order books are full for the A380 and it is obvious that there will only ever be a finite need for such a large aircraft. Therefore, if the order books are no longer growing then so what?

Maybe the maths doesn't add up, however, keeping those A380s in the air is going to be pretty good business when it comes to spares and repairs. Again, perspective. Compared to those stupid fighter jet programmes the maths really looks a whole lot more plausible for the A380.

I think that American sentiment towards European planes is easy to figure out. Cheap and dependable planes, yes, high tech wonders (Concorde, A380), no.

Re: Oversize Expectations for the Airbus A380

#14
post #2

Seems like a rather US-based perspective. It's true that no US-based airline has bought one. That's because the US has so many cities , that it makes sense for airlines to serve (say) SEA-NRT and SFO-NRT with separate smaller planes rather than just one honking big plane from SFO-NRT. Countries whose airlines have bought A380s are countries where the vast majority of international air traffic is concentrated through…

If you live anywhere near Heathrow then you will see a lot of A380's. In fact it is hard to imagine there are so few of them given how many go flying overhead. Heathrow is a busy airport operating at full capacity. The A380 therefore makes complete sense, there is no other way to increase capacity apart from bigger planes. Hence, from the perspective of anyone living in West London, you have to wonder why airlines wo…

That's the same attitude we have towards American planes. I wish the sky was dark with SSTs.

Re: Oversize Expectations for the Airbus A380

#15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Plus any US airline which purchased the A380 would get negative PR from it. While most US airline companies operate airbus aircrafts, the A380 was really marked within the US as "Us. Vs. them" type aircraft (not least of it as it was a flagship) where it was American manufacturing under attack (Boeing 747) by a foreign competitor. So the first US airline company who buys one is going to get attacked by every single "…

meh... a number of US airlines fly primarily/exclusively Airbus (JetBlue, Virgin America) and they don't don't seem to have suffered a lot of negative PR. The 777 and 787 beat it on fuel economy, and only NYC is really slot-constrained. I'm not even sure if more A380s mean more passenger throughput since the super-jumbo needs longer separation between aircraft on takeoff and landing for wake turbulence. So what's the…

>meh... a number of US airlines fly primarily/exclusively Airbus (JetBlue, Virgin America) and they don't don't seem to have suffered a lot of negative PR.

Indeed. You can find a few people willing to complain about it, but you can find a few people willing to complain about just about anything, and that's how we fill the 24-hour news cycle.

Re: Oversize Expectations for the Airbus A380

#16
Do any ordinary travelers care about the type of plane they're on? Do they even know before they get to the airport? If I had to choose between an old 737 with a 4 hour flight, and an A380 with a 6 hour flight (including the layover) there's just no question. And I can appreciate the presence of a bar in the back! It just doesn't matter that much.

It seems obvious that an airline is going to focus on initial costs, fuel efficiency, customer preferences, etc. And it's not like they don't sell liquor on 737s...

Re: Oversize Expectations for the Airbus A380

#17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As the article noted, this isn't just a US thing and actually isn't just an A380 thing. The A380 is just a very high-profile victim of it. The problems are twofold: 1. Four-engine airliners, regardless of size, are losing, basically worldwide, to twin-engine airliners with better fuel consumption. This is why the A380 and 747-8 sales are sluggish. This is why the A340 buyback program exists (airlines can't get rid of…

> airline market as a whole is shifting away from the "have a single massive international hub and send all flights there" model Dubai airport is closing in on Heathrow at the #1 spot. If long-haul traffic through Dubai continues to increase, will this change demand for A380s by non-Emirates airlines? http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World's_busiest_airports_by_i...

It is important to understand the two types of traffic at a hub. There is connecting traffic -- people who are going from somewhere else to somewhere else and just using the hub as a point to change flights. And there is what the airline folks call "O&D" traffic (which stands for "Origin and Destination") -- people who are either starting their trip at the hub or ending their trip at the hub.

Traditionally, hub locations have been chosen based on offering convenient connections to other places, but also on high levels of O&D. Thus, for example, New York in the United States, London in the UK, Frankfurt in Germany, and so on; all of these are convenient locations to get to other parts of their respective countries, but they are also major business and/or tourism centers, meaning lots of people are either based there or want to go there. O&D traffic is typically more valuable to an airline than connecting traffic.

But there are now four airlines/hubs which have extremely low O&D traffic, and exist almost solely to provide connections between points in Europe/the Americas and points in south/southeast Asia and Oceania. Those are Emirates (Dubai), Etihad (Abu Dhabi), Qatar (Doha) and Singapore (Changi). This is a very different business model from other airlines, and to an extent it can only work if the carrier and the hub are heavily subsidized by the local government.

So there's less incentive for other airlines to fly into those airports; generally it only happens when the airline can partner with the home carrier (as Qantas has done in the past with Singapore, and now does with Emirates, or British Airways connecting to alliance partner Qatar in Doha), but it still isn't as desirable as flying to a place which has significant O&D traffic. Which means it's less likely that the middle-eastern hubs will see significant increases in service from other airlines, and much less likely for them to see lots of other airlines buying A380s to fly to those hubs, because for most of them it just doesn't make financial sense. BA, for example, does fly to Dubai as a connecting point, but does it on a more-economical 777, and uses the A380 for heavier O&D routes like London-Hong Kong and London-Los Angeles.

Re: Oversize Expectations for the Airbus A380

#18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> airline market as a whole is shifting away from the "have a single massive international hub and send all flights there" model Dubai airport is closing in on Heathrow at the #1 spot. If long-haul traffic through Dubai continues to increase, will this change demand for A380s by non-Emirates airlines? http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World's_busiest_airports_by_i...

It is important to understand the two types of traffic at a hub. There is connecting traffic -- people who are going from somewhere else to somewhere else and just using the hub as a point to change flights. And there is what the airline folks call "O&D" traffic (which stands for "Origin and Destination") -- people who are either starting their trip at the hub or ending their trip at the hub. Traditionally, hub locat…

Thanks for the analysis. Book publishers (vs. Amazon-as-hub) should take a lesson from the airlines in avoiding pure hubs :)

Hopefully the newer versions of smaller aircraft will be as quiet (inside and outside) as the A380.

Re: Oversize Expectations for the Airbus A380

#19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> airline market as a whole is shifting away from the "have a single massive international hub and send all flights there" model Dubai airport is closing in on Heathrow at the #1 spot. If long-haul traffic through Dubai continues to increase, will this change demand for A380s by non-Emirates airlines? http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World's_busiest_airports_by_i...

It is important to understand the two types of traffic at a hub. There is connecting traffic -- people who are going from somewhere else to somewhere else and just using the hub as a point to change flights. And there is what the airline folks call "O&D" traffic (which stands for "Origin and Destination") -- people who are either starting their trip at the hub or ending their trip at the hub. Traditionally, hub locat…

Singapore, Dubai, and Qatar are increasingly becoming important business destinations. Plus, airlines like Emirates/Etihad/Qatar are partly commercial ventures but also partly prestige projects by Arab royalty, similar to owning football clubs (like PSG and Man City, coincidentally sponsored by Emirates and Etihad respectively) or bribing FIFA into awarding them the World Cup.

Re: Oversize Expectations for the Airbus A380

#20
post #2

Seems like a rather US-based perspective. It's true that no US-based airline has bought one. That's because the US has so many cities , that it makes sense for airlines to serve (say) SEA-NRT and SFO-NRT with separate smaller planes rather than just one honking big plane from SFO-NRT. Countries whose airlines have bought A380s are countries where the vast majority of international air traffic is concentrated through…

If you live anywhere near Heathrow then you will see a lot of A380's. In fact it is hard to imagine there are so few of them given how many go flying overhead. Heathrow is a busy airport operating at full capacity. The A380 therefore makes complete sense, there is no other way to increase capacity apart from bigger planes. Hence, from the perspective of anyone living in West London, you have to wonder why airlines wo…

> Hence, from the perspective of anyone living in West London, you have to wonder why airlines would buy anything else.

That assumes that all customers flying into LHR are long-haul customers; BA has a large number of domestic flights from LHR (including some wide-body 767s to EDI/GLA, but mostly narrow-body) and they undoubtedly have an effect on the loading of the A380 flights (if BA decided that the LHR-GLA flights weren't profitable because of the cost of landing slots at LHR, I'd simply fly via somewhere else, hence decreasingly the loading on the A380s).

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