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Corporate America Hasn’t Been Disrupted

fivethirtyeight.com

21–30 of 141 posts

Re: Corporate America Hasn’t Been Disrupted

#21
First of all, it's pretty clear that the Valley isn't "disrupting" the establishment. It is the establishment.

The elephant in the room: the death of the middle class.

Thirty years ago, unions were strong and average people had savings. Venture capitalists were wealthier than average, but not of a superior class... and they still hung out with people who wrote code for a living. Class distances weren't nonexistent, but they weren't nearly as sheer as they are today. And venture capital wasn't a requirement because bootstrapping was really possible, because average people actually had money.

People complain about how the Valley is cranking out apps for spoiled 20-year-olds instead of regular people, and missing the much bigger point, which is that "regular people" are cash-strapped, time-poor, overworked and generally disenfranchised altogether. The people building apps for spoiled 20-year-olds are staking out the new, post-large-middle-class world.

Now, to bankroll a business you either need elite connections (usually to people spending others' money) or outlandish luck, you have to have people in your pocket who'll ensure coverage, and you'll probably end up taking a back seat in your company as soon as you hire a "business co-founder" who can deliver Sequoia and A16Z.

No one has a good idea what to build, and products and technology aren't really the point (the point is getting bought; "startups" are a long audition process for would-be corporate executives looking to jump the queue) but one sector that isn't being targeted is the (disintegrating) middle class.

Corporate America, meanwhile, is stronger than ever. The wealth and connections are even more concentrated, giving power to the few at the expense of the many. And these Valley startups are the driving force behind all of this.

Re: Corporate America Hasn’t Been Disrupted

#22
post #19

I agree with everything in OP, and this admittedly makes me sound like a dreamer, but I think there's a good chance that computer-aided radical decentralization is going to have a major effect on these numbers in the next few years. The possibilities of blockchain technology (and other technology inspired by it) has barely even begun to percolate through society, and in theory it allows free agents to fill roles prev…

What about the lack of privacy in Bitcoin? Couldn't that be used to regulate the decentralized agents? http://www.pds.ewi.tudelft.nl/~victor/bitcoin.html

Re: Corporate America Hasn’t Been Disrupted

#23
post #19

I agree with everything in OP, and this admittedly makes me sound like a dreamer, but I think there's a good chance that computer-aided radical decentralization is going to have a major effect on these numbers in the next few years. The possibilities of blockchain technology (and other technology inspired by it) has barely even begun to percolate through society, and in theory it allows free agents to fill roles prev…

Can you name any businesses where radical decentralization builds important revenue?

As others have pointed out, technology seems to consolidate more than decentralize. Network effect is opposite force to decentralization. Companies like Airbnb, Uber consolidate previously small businesses under one huge company.

Re: Corporate America Hasn’t Been Disrupted

#24
I have another suggestion for the decline in startup rates: health care and college expenses.

The historically "prime" years for entrepreneurship are in one's late 30's to early 50's, years when one typically has a family in need of healthcare, college tuition, and hopefully retirement at some point down the line. In the 70's and 80's someone could leave the security of their big company, get relatively affordable private insurance for them and their family, and sleep moderately well knowing that even if their new venture fails their children will at least be able make it through a state school working part time. Now, they'll have to pay through the nose for healthcare and we all know how much schools cost these days.

Given the increased failure rates of new ventures these days it's not so hard to see why more mid-career individuals are remaining in corporate jobs instead of venturing out on their own: it's getting too expensive to roll those dice.

Re: Corporate America Hasn’t Been Disrupted

#25

Could other possible reasons be: 1) The companies innovating become large themselves and are now indistinguishable from the incumbents? 2) Silicon Valley is in a venture capital frenzy. VCs make money by exits. Innovative companies keep getting bought by the incumbents.

It's hard to overstate how important monetary policy is in this state of affairs. CapEx has been plummeting for years because it makes more sense to lever up with artificially cheap debt and gamble with equity. We see less upstarts and less major capital investment by businesses because that's way riskier than the guaranteed returns that can be got through other common schemes predicated on cheap money.

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-financialization-o...

Re: Corporate America Hasn’t Been Disrupted

#27

First of all, it's pretty clear that the Valley isn't "disrupting" the establishment. It is the establishment. The elephant in the room: the death of the middle class. Thirty years ago, unions were strong and average people had savings. Venture capitalists were wealthier than average, but not of a superior class... and they still hung out with people who wrote code for a living. Class distances weren't nonexistent, b…

Agree entirely. This is a perfect write up of the situation at hand.

> but one sector that isn't being targeted is the (disintegrating) middle class.

So, what (if anything) can we do to fix this?

Is there anything a regular person can do or work on to help the (disintegrating) middle class?

Re: Corporate America Hasn’t Been Disrupted

#28
As a Professor of entrepreneurship at NYU's engineering school (that VC Fred Wilson called a jewel -- http://avc.com/2014/03/the-value-of-an-engineering-degree), I can summarize the problem in one phrase many of my students said when describing their goals after graduation:

"... but I have to get a job at a big company to sponsor my visa."

They're brilliant, motivated, and capable, but almost none are citizens. To start new companies they have to leave the U.S. To stay they have to work for a big company even though more than half are continuing their entrepreneurial class projects after the course ended. There are options to jump through difficult hoops, but those options are much harder for most.

So we motivate potential entrepreneurs to start elsewhere or give up their plans. What if instead we motivated the world to start companies here instead of elsewhere?

(Incidentally, we're organizing an event in October for non-U.S.-citizens who found ways to start companies and stay here to help inspire others to find ways to do it. If you're interested, especially if you know non-citizens who found ways to stay and live near NYC, please contact me -- http://joshuaspodek.com/contactconnect.)

Re: Corporate America Hasn’t Been Disrupted

#29
post #23
post #19

I agree with everything in OP, and this admittedly makes me sound like a dreamer, but I think there's a good chance that computer-aided radical decentralization is going to have a major effect on these numbers in the next few years. The possibilities of blockchain technology (and other technology inspired by it) has barely even begun to percolate through society, and in theory it allows free agents to fill roles prev…

Can you name any businesses where radical decentralization builds important revenue? As others have pointed out, technology seems to consolidate more than decentralize. Network effect is opposite force to decentralization. Companies like Airbnb, Uber consolidate previously small businesses under one huge company.

> Can you name any businesses where radical decentralization builds important revenue?

Well, contrary to popular belief, making large revenue isn't the only viable business model: The other viable model is to build something that greatly hurts your competition's revenue. Here, "viable" means "it survives", I don't think CARD is about making huge profits, it's about commoditizing scalable parts of a business, removing scalability as a revenue generating mechanism. (Airbnb and Uber are not CARD and I think will fail in the next 5-10 years.)

As for naming businesses: Only illegal business currently use this model, unfortunately (some parts of the online drug trade, and to some parts of the bittorrent scene.)

Re: Corporate America Hasn’t Been Disrupted

#30
Much of what we are seeing is the effect of our insane visa and immigration policies.

The traditional entrepreneurial spirit of the United States was driven by the culture of immigrants. Over 40% of the companies on the Fortune 500 were founded by immigrants or the children of immigrants. These were once disruptive startups.

Now we make it very difficult for talented and intelligent people to become permanent residents. So instead they stay home, or maybe go to Canada or Australia.

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