Live data from Hacker News

The New Luddites: What if technological innovation is a job-killer after all?

slate.com

81–90 of 107 posts

Re: The New Luddites: What if technological innovation is a job-killer after all?

#81
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Basic income is not a left vs right issue. Lots of libertarians (including Milton Friedman and Friedrich Hayek) support basic income as a more efficient safety net than government-run programs.

Uh... how exactly do they see "basic income" and "government-run" as opposites?

There's two sides:

(1) Collecting the money used, and (2) And choosing how to spend money for the benefit of the beneficiaries.

Both basic income and traditional welfare rely on government for #1, true. The difference is in #2.

Re: The New Luddites: What if technological innovation is a job-killer after all?

#82
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The right believe that their way is the only way. To be fair, the left feel this way too.

If that were true a conservative based healthcare reform like the ACA would never have been passed by a democratic controlled congress. For better or for worse the left has been much more open to compromise

> the left has been much more open to compromise

Both sides compromise, but only when they think they are getting the better deal. There are moderates on both sides who get things done, and there are extremists on both sides that stifle progress. One side is not better at compromise than the other, in any regard. They are all politicians, and they are all motivated by the same thing: power and self fulfillment.

Re: The New Luddites: What if technological innovation is a job-killer after all?

#83
post #2

Current top comment: I think the answer is fairly straightforward: create a guaranteed minimum income. Tax all income after that. As productivity goes up, you increase the guaranteed minimum income. If you want more than the minimum, you go out and work, and the people who have only skills that can be done by a computer/robot more cheaply than a minimum wage work just leave the work force. Should productivity go down…

Why a basic income? I propose basic welfare, food + clothing + shelter, even entertainment. Mass produced in order to minimise costs. Then allocate a fixed amount of tax revenue to fund it, say 10%. Then as productivity goes up and goods become cheaper, this 10% can provide even more. Let money be what it is, a claim on goods and services provided for by other people. With basic welfare no one is forced into work out…

Because centrally planned economies have been notoriously unable to predict and meet demand. Adequately meeting demand is important, especially considering how fresh and healthy food is for the most part perishable. Perhaps one day, when/if something like Soylent can be supplied as a utility this would work.

Re: The New Luddites: What if technological innovation is a job-killer after all?

#84
post #11
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I legitimately do not believe that this would work in the US before an extreme collapse of the current system - including but not limited to a civil war. I believe this because we have a hard enough time pushing through cursory and very basic social welfare programs. Quite literally guaranteeing someone a basic income with 0 work involved would be as palatable as thumb tacks to many individuals in the states. Logic d…

Thank you, Tea Party (yes, I'm being sarcastic). The far right in this country have driven home their stupid Ayn Rand message and too many people have listened. We now have the most polarized government since the Civil War. The right believe that their way is the only way. To them everything is a zero sum game. I would settle for a Scandinavian or Swiss-style system. The older I get, the less I like capitalism as des…

Most of the right in the US prescribe a less powerful government and more choice for individuals. Social conservatives want to force their morals on everyone, but with less government, wanted by fiscal conservatives who and make up the majority of the Tea Party and "the right", that's not possible.

Class warriors believe in zero-sum games. Wealth inequality to them means that if the rich are getting richer, then everyone else must be getting poorer; never mind that living standards have been improving for virtually everyone over the last 50 years (stagnant in closed societies, but those are far and few).

Also, please don't use terms like "far right". It could mean Ayn Rand or Hitler, and they don't have a thing in common.

Re: The New Luddites: What if technological innovation is a job-killer after all?

#85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People usually live slightly beyond their means. There've been brief periods in US history where that was true (where the savings rate was negative), but that usually been when there's been an economic downturn [1] in the wake of stronger economic times, and in any case relies on credit availability or savings to make possible. A drop in guaranteed minimum income or basic income doesn't mean welfare automatically r…

A drop in guaranteed minimum income or basic income doesn't mean welfare automatically reappears, it means that the standard of living drops for those dependent on the GMI/BI. But that's what you'd expect in a broad-based economic downturn -- the mean standard of living drops. Translation: The poor can no longer afford food, because there's no welfare program and their guaranteed minimum has dropped. Maybe they enter…

The solution to both loan situations (and debt problems in general that would risk making BI/GMI inadequate) is to fix bankruptcy laws to the extent that they don't currently provide an adequate out for them. To the extent that basic income or GMI "looks different" to existing bankruptcy laws than welfare benefits, its probably an essential compoment of any such plan to work that out.

> There are all kinds of corner cases which the current system handles.

Poor people not being able to afford adequate food during an economic downturn -- or even an economic boom -- on their own (including with whatever government assistance is provided) isn't, however, one of them. During good economic times, some of that gap is covered by private charities (especially for the poor in relatively affluent areas), but (1) that goes away during economic downturns, and (2) that's not something that BI/GMI replaces, anyway.

Sure, lets question if alternatives to the status quo do what we want, but lets also not pretend the status quo does things that it doesn't.

Re: The New Luddites: What if technological innovation is a job-killer after all?

#86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why a basic income? I propose basic welfare, food + clothing + shelter, even entertainment. Mass produced in order to minimise costs. Because basic income respects human freedom, and as automation advances and the rewards of the economy in pure-market terms increasingly shift even further from labor to capital, a basic income that is adjusted in amount as the economy shifts provides a comparatively light touch redi…

The idea is to have a floor on consequences, people make bad choices or are just plain unlucky. Think of basic welfare as a utility, to draw upon as and when you need it, hopefully temporarily as you get back on your feet. Eliminating choice is important, it solves the underlying issue (people dying) while removing opportunities to exploit (reselling food stamps). Incentives to be productive don't go away, can you cr…

> Think of basic welfare as a utility, to draw upon as and when you need it, hopefully temporarily as you get back on your feet.

That's a not-entirely-unreasonable (though, still, I'd argue basically flawed) idea for welfare in an economy that is heavily labor dependent and in which the presumption that being jobless is a short-term, transitional situation and where the share of output going to labor (as opposed to capital) is relatively high.

One of the reasons I think ideas like BI have been catching on more recently is that it is increasingly obvious that the economy is, to the extent it ever was like that in outline, increasingly moving away from it and not likely to return to it.

> Incentives to be productive don't go away

With a guaranteed floor rather than guaranteed addition, yes, within a certain range incentives to be productive go away, because any gains up to the amount of the guaranteed floor have zero net return to the person producing them.

Re: The New Luddites: What if technological innovation is a job-killer after all?

#87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A solution - though extremely unlikely in this day and age - would be to abandon the notion of nations. Especially in the far future, if we are ever to meet aliens. Imagine having to explain that you only represent one of 196 nations. Seems a bit silly to me.

The "national" level will always matter. It's a problem of governing and risk management. Different regions have different problems, and the bigger an organisational structure, the more complicated. The hierarchical system with different levels of legislation and regulation at least works. In some sense we are already working towards a global government by claiming human rights to be universal. Out of that endeavour…

[deleted]

Re: The New Luddites: What if technological innovation is a job-killer after all?

#88
post #2

Current top comment: I think the answer is fairly straightforward: create a guaranteed minimum income. Tax all income after that. As productivity goes up, you increase the guaranteed minimum income. If you want more than the minimum, you go out and work, and the people who have only skills that can be done by a computer/robot more cheaply than a minimum wage work just leave the work force. Should productivity go down…

I don't see a way to get there, for most nations. Big nations would have the most trouble introducing this. And what about immigration? Immigration can't be effectively regulated by any means available to a moderately democratic state. Should immigrants receive the BLS? If yes, you go broke. If no, the immigrants are essentially second-class citizens who have to work for an extremely low wage (because they would have…

> Immigration can't be effectively regulated by any means available to a moderately democratic state.

That's debatable. But lets assume it for the sake of argument.

> Should immigrants receive the BLS? If yes, you go broke. If no, the immigrants are essentially second-class citizens who have to work for an extremely low wage (because they would have to pay indirectly for the BLS).

I think this claim is overly simplistic; also, I think there are several categories to consider,that I think you've failed to distinguish:

(1) Naturalized citizens should certainly receive whatever universal or guaranteed income is adopted, but immigrants don't become naturalized citizens immediately.

(2) Legal immigrants (the number and characteristics of whom a democratic state can effectively regulate), who are not citizens, probably should be eligible for the support [1] as well, but may be admitted on criteria that include having means of support that make it less likely that immigrant will be a recipient (in a GMI scheme) or net recipient (in a BI scheme).

(3) Non-immigrant, but legally-present workers, visitors, etc. should not generally be eligible for the support. In the case of non-immigrant economic admission categories, adequate support means should be part of the conditions for admission. There may be some exceptions to this (note [1] again may apply to these exceptions) or some categories of non-immigrant admits that are qualified for alternative, status-specific support.

(4) Those illegally present probably should not be eligible for the benefits, but may be eligible for some kind of normalization of status process after which they would become legal immigrants who might be eligible for benefits (to which note [1] would apply again). This normalization process might include up-front payment of a fine for those with means, or commitment to income contingent future payment of the fine with nominal interest, and might even include limitations on benefit eligibility for some period even beyond what regular legal immigrants might face, or commitments to repay any benefits claimed during a certain transitional period on an income-contingent basis. (In general, payment for normalization -- or payment for above-quota legal immigration -- makes sense for individuals who are not personally barred, since limits on levels of such immigration are a cost-of-immigration control measure, and its better for people who want to immigrate to bear the costs then for society to bear the costs of inefficiently trying to keep them out, and then also bearing the costs of them coming in anyway.)

[1] As productivity advances and if the basic support improves to provide more than a very minimal floor, its not entirely unreasonable that non-citizens might recieve less than the full support level, however, possibly based on a sliding scale based on residency; in theoretical terms, in a rent on the commons model, this represents a kind of "vesting" process where the immigrant doesn't become a full "owner" until they are naturalized; in practical terms it provides basic social support but reduces the immediate immigration incentive.

Re: The New Luddites: What if technological innovation is a job-killer after all?

#89
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why a basic income? I propose basic welfare, food + clothing + shelter, even entertainment. Mass produced in order to minimise costs. Then allocate a fixed amount of tax revenue to fund it, say 10%. Then as productivity goes up and goods become cheaper, this 10% can provide even more. Let money be what it is, a claim on goods and services provided for by other people. With basic welfare no one is forced into work out…

Because centrally planned economies have been notoriously unable to predict and meet demand. Adequately meeting demand is important, especially considering how fresh and healthy food is for the most part perishable. Perhaps one day, when/if something like Soylent can be supplied as a utility this would work.

This isn't a centrally planned economy, its a centrally planned expense. Once you know how many people you need to provide for, how much it costs is simple multiplication. Mass manufacturing and predictable consumption will help reduce costs even further.

Basic Income is harder, how much do I pay to prevent people suffering? Will people still die if I provide 10k$ how about 20k$? What if they're really bad at decision making and gamble it away or get robbed?

Re: The New Luddites: What if technological innovation is a job-killer after all?

#90
post #2

Current top comment: I think the answer is fairly straightforward: create a guaranteed minimum income. Tax all income after that. As productivity goes up, you increase the guaranteed minimum income. If you want more than the minimum, you go out and work, and the people who have only skills that can be done by a computer/robot more cheaply than a minimum wage work just leave the work force. Should productivity go down…

For the record, "guaranteed minimum income" typically labels a different policy than "basic income" - where in the former the government pays you N-M when you make MFor the record, I favor a (reasonably sized) basic income, and would object to a minimum income.
Post reply on HN