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Raising the speed limit to the 85%/15% ratio isn't necessarily the safest way to handle the driving. If there's a road where more than 15% of drivers are going faster than the speed limit, one option is to raise the speed limit, but the other option is to change the road so people won't drive so fast on it.
I found myself disagreeing with the premise that highway speed limits don't influence people's driving speed. I may simply be part of the 15%, but consider the following anecdata: On I-90 in upstate NY, the "speed limit" is 65. I've gone by several state troopers at 70-75 without issue or confrontation. I don't go faster, not because traffic dictates, but I'm concerned about litigious policemen. To put it in Freakono…
It's not an arbitrary premise, it's studied: “Over the years, I’ve done many follow up studies after we raise or lower a speed limit,” Megge tells us. “Almost every time, the 85th percentile speed doesn’t change, or if it does, it’s by about 2 or 3 mph.”
The article seems to quietly conflate the fastest 15% of drivers ignoring the limit with "most drivers" ignoring the limit. Which is odd. However, even under the _archon_ model, increasing the limit would lead to a reduction in speed variance.
Their reasoning about the dangers of low speed limits make a lot of sense when you're looking at highways, but I don't think they'd necessarily apply to city or residential streets where there are frequent red lights, pedestrians, etc. Of course, the right thing to do there is probably to configure the roads so that people drive more slowly naturally by narrowing lanes, having trees on the side of the road, etc.
It doesn't even make any sense regarding highways. Ignoring their embarrassingly flawed standard for setting speed limits based on a percentile of speed limited traffic, there are so many other factors that go into the danger of traffic that are wholly and totally separate from speed. I would argue that the speed is exponentially less significant than the skill and training and experience of the drivers. Take a compa…
Country and traffic fatalities per 1b veh/kms.
United Arab Emirates 310
Brazil 55.9
Slovakia 24.5
South Korea 22.8
Bulgaria 19.1
Estonia 17.5
Cyprus 16.7
Czech Republic 15.7
Malaysia 13.8
Spain 8.5
New Zealand 8.3
Japan 8.3
Belgium 7.7
United States of America 7.6
Slovenia 7.6
Austria 6.9
France 6.3
Canada 6.1
Switzerland 5.6
Israel 5.2
Australia 5.2
Germany 4.9
Netherlands 4.9
Malta 4.9
Finland 4.7
United Kingdom 4.3
Iceland 3.8
Sweden 3.7
Ireland 3.4
Denmark 3.4
Norway 3.3
I found myself disagreeing with the premise that highway speed limits don't influence people's driving speed. I may simply be part of the 15%, but consider the following anecdata: On I-90 in upstate NY, the "speed limit" is 65. I've gone by several state troopers at 70-75 without issue or confrontation. I don't go faster, not because traffic dictates, but I'm concerned about litigious policemen. To put it in Freakono…
You do raise a good point. I know that, when I started driving, my dad taught me a neat trick: drive 8.5 mph over the speed limit, and you'll never get pulled over. That's (supposedly) because a ticket for anything less than 10mph is simply not worth it for the cops. If you go any more than 8.5mph over, though, you might accidentally cross that 10mph mark, and if a cop's around he'll get you. And, sure enough, any ti…
Depends on your cops.
I've witnessed tickets for 5 over (40 in a 45), 4 over (49 in a 45) and a stop, thankfully without a ticket for 1 over (31 in 30).
I'm given to thinking of it as a lottery. Someone is getting pulled over, today me, tomorrow someone else. I'm just glad I haven't had a case of 'marijuana smell' for 10 years or so.
This article ignores a lot of peer-reviewed literature from planning, public health / injury prevention, and civil engineering in favor of some folksy wisdom of a lieutenant cop. A good starting mental model is that vehicle speeds increase both the frequency and severity of crashes. The article weakly, and quietly made an argument that I do agree with. Namely, roadway design needs to accompany speed limits to ensure…
There is conflicting evidence on the matter. A local (Vancouver) video[1] circulating here had some strong arguments that our speed limits are kept needlessly low. If you're interested in such things, it's a well done video and worth the 15 minutes it takes to watch. [1] http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2013/09/speed-does-not-kill-vanco...
I found myself disagreeing with the premise that highway speed limits don't influence people's driving speed. I may simply be part of the 15%, but consider the following anecdata: On I-90 in upstate NY, the "speed limit" is 65. I've gone by several state troopers at 70-75 without issue or confrontation. I don't go faster, not because traffic dictates, but I'm concerned about litigious policemen. To put it in Freakono…
You do raise a good point. I know that, when I started driving, my dad taught me a neat trick: drive 8.5 mph over the speed limit, and you'll never get pulled over. That's (supposedly) because a ticket for anything less than 10mph is simply not worth it for the cops. If you go any more than 8.5mph over, though, you might accidentally cross that 10mph mark, and if a cop's around he'll get you. And, sure enough, any ti…
Raising the speed limit to the 85%/15% ratio isn't necessarily the safest way to handle the driving. If there's a road where more than 15% of drivers are going faster than the speed limit, one option is to raise the speed limit, but the other option is to change the road so people won't drive so fast on it.
That would likely make the road more dangerous for the 85% who drive under the limit. Like any engineering project, roads must be designed with headroom…
Raising the speed limit to the 85%/15% ratio isn't necessarily the safest way to handle the driving. If there's a road where more than 15% of drivers are going faster than the speed limit, one option is to raise the speed limit, but the other option is to change the road so people won't drive so fast on it.
This article ignores a lot of peer-reviewed literature from planning, public health / injury prevention, and civil engineering in favor of some folksy wisdom of a lieutenant cop. A good starting mental model is that vehicle speeds increase both the frequency and severity of crashes. The article weakly, and quietly made an argument that I do agree with. Namely, roadway design needs to accompany speed limits to ensure…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is conflicting evidence on the matter. A local (Vancouver) video[1] circulating here had some strong arguments that our speed limits are kept needlessly low. If you're interested in such things, it's a well done video and worth the 15 minutes it takes to watch. [1] http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2013/09/speed-does-not-kill-vanco...
That video only gained traction in social media because it is telling people want they want to hear. It's always important to filter everything you read through "do I want to believe the thesis/conclusion of this?" Because a lot of people throw critical thinking out the window when they want to believe something.
The facts should speak for themselves regardless of what each of us wants.