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Panasonic and Tesla Sign Agreement for the Gigafactory

teslamotors.com

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Re: Panasonic and Tesla Sign Agreement for the Gigafactory

#71

Post by NickM »

cgearhart wrote: post #55
snarfy wrote: post #33

Has there been any analysis on the amount of joule energy pumped out of all of the current gas stations on a daily basis? I'm worried the current electric grid is woefully insufficient for a world full of electric cars. I know their are plenty of electric lines out there running at greater than 100% of their rated capacity already.

Napkin math supports your concerns. - The US used 134.51 billion gallons of gas in 2013.[1] - There are ~33 kWh/gal in gasoline [2] 134.51e9 gal x 33 kWh / gal = 4.44e12 kWh (4.44 trillion kWh / year) - The US used a total of 3.856 trillion kWh of electricity in 2011 [3] Ignoring improved efficiency and excluding other factors, converting all gasoline usage to electric would more than double US electricity consumptio…

Ignoring improved efficiency and excluding other factors, converting all gasoline usage to electric would more than double US electricity consumption.

Not a bad analysis, but there's a lot we're glossing over here.

For one thing, that 33kWh can get you about 100 miles in an average electric vehicle. That's compared to the average new US car which gets 25MPG, and existing cars out there average worse than that. So right away, there's a factor of four that we're leaving out here.

Further (as others have mentioned) it takes a huge amount of electricity to refine oil into gasoline. The electricity savings from not refining a gallon of gas are enough to drive an electric vehicle pretty far on its own.

Also, our grid and generating capacity are built to handle peak load, which (in most parts of the US) will occur on hot days when lots of people are using AC. On the flip side, the majority of electric car charging happens at night, so there's a lot of spare capacity already there.

If everyone switched to EVs, we'd probably need to build out more generating capacity, but probably not as much as your analysis suggests.

Re: Panasonic and Tesla Sign Agreement for the Gigafactory

#72

Post by trose »

NickM wrote: post #69
cowmix wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One fact everyone seems to forget is that it takes approximately 6.5 Kwh of energy to refine one gal of gas. That is JUST refinement and not the energy to pump, store, etc. My Volt drives around 22 -> 28 miles on that power.

I was going to raise the same point. And, considering that the average new car sold in the US gets 25MPG, we should be just about breaking even.

Breaking even eventually. I doubt they're going to suddenly just stop refining all of that oil. There will have to be a trend before the oil companies start lowering their output.

Re: Panasonic and Tesla Sign Agreement for the Gigafactory

#73

Post by makomk »

mseebach wrote: post #53
davman wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I need to do more research on the Leaf but yeah that is a close contender. The Zoe is a problem. I love Renault cars, my Clio was my favourite thing in the world, but the Zoe has DRM in the battery which you have to rent from Renault for a fee based on your mileage, which as far as I could tell, worked out to more than I would pay in petrol. I believe, although it may have been FUD, that if you go over the mileage yo…

It seems like it would be FUD, as the capability to remotely disable the car (and dealing with the liability from doing that in a inconvenient or even dangerous place) seems rather expensive, when you might as well just check the milage when it's serviced (not servicing your new or new-ish car at an authorized dealership is a great way of slashing its resale value).

The reviews I've found claim they remotely disable your ability to recharge the battery if you go over the mileage you've paid for, so the car keeps going until the battery runs out and is no more at risk of dying at a dangerous time than if they hadn't disabled it.

Re: Panasonic and Tesla Sign Agreement for the Gigafactory

#74

Post by tzm »

DannyBee wrote: post #29
pptr1 wrote: post #28

This just shows me that Tesla is able to execute. The Gigafactory, opening up patents, rapidly growing charger network, and the eventual $35k Gen III tells me they have tons of potential in the future. Tesla is thinking big. They want everyone in the world to eventually have a electric car. I think they will own a significant share of premium market after they release the Gen III. However, they will be cars that peop…

"opening up patents" There is still no truly legally enforceable promise, that explains in detail, exactly what Elon is giving away and what he isn't, and what the terms are. It's now 1.5 months later, and despite many people asking such a thing, nothing has been forthcoming at all. So before you give them amazing amounts of credit for this, could we please wait till they actually do something more than PR?

Nissan and BMW are currently hammering details with Tesla on this very issue.

Re: Panasonic and Tesla Sign Agreement for the Gigafactory

#75

Post by epistasis »

cgearhart wrote: post #55
snarfy wrote: post #33

Has there been any analysis on the amount of joule energy pumped out of all of the current gas stations on a daily basis? I'm worried the current electric grid is woefully insufficient for a world full of electric cars. I know their are plenty of electric lines out there running at greater than 100% of their rated capacity already.

Napkin math supports your concerns. - The US used 134.51 billion gallons of gas in 2013.[1] - There are ~33 kWh/gal in gasoline [2] 134.51e9 gal x 33 kWh / gal = 4.44e12 kWh (4.44 trillion kWh / year) - The US used a total of 3.856 trillion kWh of electricity in 2011 [3] Ignoring improved efficiency and excluding other factors, converting all gasoline usage to electric would more than double US electricity consumptio…

>Ignoring improved efficiency and excluding other factors,

But these factors are absolutely enormous, particularly for the comparison you set up, as electric vehicles are about 3x as efficient. EVs on the mass market get about 3m/kWh, whereas most gas vehicles get about 1m/kWh, if you use your 33kWh/gal.

So instead of doubling US electricity consumption, 100% EV vehicle fleet just raises consumption by 33%, an amount that could nearly be made up for with simple efficiency gains in electricity use.

Re: Panasonic and Tesla Sign Agreement for the Gigafactory

#76

Post by ksec »

twoodfin wrote: post #42
ksec wrote: post #17

Again as with my previous response, I still dont get why the need for a Gigafactory. Battery Industry are an extremely automated, high volume market and with profit margin in single digit. Cutting those off aren't going to automatically made electric cars affordable. Unless Telsa and Panasonic has jointly developed an revolutionary battery that is going to need some funding and mass produced. But any new battery will…

This is perhaps too cynical, but it's to Tesla's advantage to be supporting as many workers in the United States as possible. They benefit tremendously from wide array of state and federal incentives, and having jobs directly depending on the continuation of those incentives makes them politically more likely to continue.

Of coz, i am not saying it is bad to have it built. And all the advantage of local workforce you mention. I am just not getting the business and technical / tactical advantage of it.

Re: Panasonic and Tesla Sign Agreement for the Gigafactory

#77

Post by ksec »

ksec wrote: post #17

Again as with my previous response, I still dont get why the need for a Gigafactory. Battery Industry are an extremely automated, high volume market and with profit margin in single digit. Cutting those off aren't going to automatically made electric cars affordable. Unless Telsa and Panasonic has jointly developed an revolutionary battery that is going to need some funding and mass produced. But any new battery will…

And I got downvoted for asking a valid question.

Re: Panasonic and Tesla Sign Agreement for the Gigafactory

#78

Post by mseebach »

makomk wrote: post #73
mseebach wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems like it would be FUD, as the capability to remotely disable the car (and dealing with the liability from doing that in a inconvenient or even dangerous place) seems rather expensive, when you might as well just check the milage when it's serviced (not servicing your new or new-ish car at an authorized dealership is a great way of slashing its resale value).

The reviews I've found claim they remotely disable your ability to recharge the battery if you go over the mileage you've paid for, so the car keeps going until the battery runs out and is no more at risk of dying at a dangerous time than if they hadn't disabled it.

Ah, that makes better sense, but that's probably not a remote capability, just a check on the milage in the charger.

Re: Panasonic and Tesla Sign Agreement for the Gigafactory

#79

Post by cgearhart »

epistasis wrote: post #75
cgearhart wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Napkin math supports your concerns. - The US used 134.51 billion gallons of gas in 2013.[1] - There are ~33 kWh/gal in gasoline [2] 134.51e9 gal x 33 kWh / gal = 4.44e12 kWh (4.44 trillion kWh / year) - The US used a total of 3.856 trillion kWh of electricity in 2011 [3] Ignoring improved efficiency and excluding other factors, converting all gasoline usage to electric would more than double US electricity consumptio…

>Ignoring improved efficiency and excluding other factors, But these factors are absolutely enormous, particularly for the comparison you set up, as electric vehicles are about 3x as efficient. EVs on the mass market get about 3m/kWh, whereas most gas vehicles get about 1m/kWh, if you use your 33kWh/gal. So instead of doubling US electricity consumption, 100% EV vehicle fleet just raises consumption by 33%, an amount…

That's one of the down sides to napkin math. I posted a follow up on another comment. Including some of the efficiencies leads to a net increase of about 20% in electricity usage.

Re: Panasonic and Tesla Sign Agreement for the Gigafactory

#80

Post by grecy »

DiabloD3 wrote: post #49
celticninja wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that to "F them in the A"?

I feel this comment is getting downvoted, not because it is wrong, but because it is crude. I actually hope Tesla "Fs them in the A", because the entire industry has sat on its laurels for pretty much 20 years. Instead of innovating, they have been, essentially, polishing a turd.

> Instead of innovating, they have been, essentially, polishing a turd.

In North America, yes. The rest of the automotive industry has been advancing a lot.

I love that BMW get the same power/torque from a 3.0 liter engine as Ford/GM do out of a 6+ liter engine.

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