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Nukes of Hazard (2013)

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Re: Nukes of Hazard (2013)

#151
post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This seems much sillier than the anthropic principle, however. (And I've had a professor thunder at me that the anthropic principle itself is silly, anyway.) It's not as though we know of any nuclear-capable civilizations besides our own.

I'd love to hear an explanation why it seems silly.

In deference to my professor, I'll just observe why "The fact that we haven't observed a nuclear war in history might have less to do with the likelihood of nuclear war and more with the fact that fewer people would be able to observe that history," seems sillier than Carter's (not Tipler's!) anthropic principle. The anthropic principle considers only two classes of universe: one that will at some point host observers of any sort, and the other that will not. Clearly we find ourselves in a universe of the former class. Whereas your statement invokes any number of possible histories and events, and blithely assigns probability distributions to them. I value parsimony.

Re: Nukes of Hazard (2013)

#152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By the 70s and 80s, people knew (or had the option to know - many chose not to know) what the Soviets did to people at home, so it wasn't totally out of whack to assume what would happen if they invaded. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Day_in_the_Life_of_Ivan_De...

People often forget how awful the west treated the bottom of its society at the time. For a black in the South, the soviet union (or more likely Cuba/communist latin country) probably looked pretty good. That's not to excuse or downplay these country's mistakes. Let's just not forget our own.

Criticism of the US for segregation was a common tactic used in Soviet propaganda.

Re: Nukes of Hazard (2013)

#153
post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People often forget how awful the west treated the bottom of its society at the time. For a black in the South, the soviet union (or more likely Cuba/communist latin country) probably looked pretty good. That's not to excuse or downplay these country's mistakes. Let's just not forget our own.

Criticism of the US for segregation was a common tactic used in Soviet propaganda.

Roughly to the same extent that criticism of the soviets was a common tactic used in western propaganda.

Re: Nukes of Hazard (2013)

#154

The article claims that a nine-megaton blast would wipe out "most of the state of Arkansas". Wikipedia claims the lethal radius on a bomb of that size is about 20 miles for thermal effects ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B53_nuclear_bomb#Effects ), which is around 2% of the area of Arkansas; other effects are described as having an even smaller radius. I suspect, but cannot prove, the wikipedia number is more likely t…

>I suspect, but cannot prove, the wikipedia number is more likely to be correct. The Wikipedia number is not correct, because even a single blast has long term consequences, and in a full scale war, the consequences are more significant than the initial damage. Even if the blast was just one a of a handful, survivors would have to contend with fallout from other detonations, followed by nuclear winter, followed by ye…

> "in a full scale war, the consequences are more significant"

The specific point being discussed was a local disaster -- a 9 megaton bomb which was damaged by somebody dropping a tool on it -- not an all-out war scenario.

Which is why I responded the way I did. In that scenario, I don't see any realistic case in which the entire state of Arkansas would be "wiped out". Possibly fallout would have rendered a fraction of the state uninhabitable for several weeks, and possibly some long-term effects would render a smaller fraction of the state uninhabitable for much longer, but the whole state "wiped out" is just sloppy journalism.

Re: Nukes of Hazard (2013)

#155

The article claims that a nine-megaton blast would wipe out "most of the state of Arkansas". Wikipedia claims the lethal radius on a bomb of that size is about 20 miles for thermal effects ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B53_nuclear_bomb#Effects ), which is around 2% of the area of Arkansas; other effects are described as having an even smaller radius. I suspect, but cannot prove, the wikipedia number is more likely t…

Another technical mistake in the New Yorker article: it implies that since the missle was armed, the fire could have produced a megaton-sized blast. Not true: the component that undergoes fission in all US nukes designed after 1945 is spherical, and for the component to release significant amounts of energy, the sphere has to be compressed by a very precisely-timed combination of about 20 explosions of conventional e…

Your comment assumes that the weapon was one-point safe, which was not true for all US devices. I cannot remember the source but apparently for many years (through at least the 80's, I believe) many US weapons could have produced a yield if subjected to a fire.

Suppose the trigger device providing the precise timing could misbehave at high temperatures. Or, in the same source I mentioned earlier, it was disclosed that there were wiring paths which could have melted together in a fire and cause the weapon to fire.

Re: Nukes of Hazard (2013)

#156
post #143
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Fail Safe" [1] is also an excellent movie. I believe it was based on the same book as Strangelove, but is a drama and not a dark comedy. Excellent movie and cast.

Which one ? http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/failsafe/ vs http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/1175374-fail_safe/

Sorry, forgot the link:

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/failsafe/

Re: Nukes of Hazard (2013)

#157
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A point that bears repeating is that this level of overkill was actually counterproductive . One way of disabling a high efficiency nuclear device is to blast the thing with neutrons (causing a premature and incomplete fission reaction in the core of the weapon). This was actually how the Sprint ABM system was intended to destroy its targets: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sprint_%28missile%29 Now picture the skies ove…

One explanation of the massive overkill that the US had for a lot of the Cold War came down, essentially, to badly stated requirements. Apparently, the US military were tasked with destroying 50% of the socialist world's industrial capacity - which you could do by destroying 50% of the factories completely or 100% of the factories by at least 50%. However, if you attack say a shoe factory (the example given) with an…

Maybe, but another important reason for overkill is that you couldn't be sure that all payloads would actually reach their destination. In the nuclear-bomber era this was especially the case - IIRC the last book I read on LeMay suggested that planners assumed around 90% of the planes would be shot down far away from their intended targets. The missile era obliterated that particular dynamic, but replaced it with a threat against second-strike capability from your enemy's ICBMs.

Re: Nukes of Hazard (2013)

#158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Almost certainly a Cold War maximum nuclear war would result in collapse of industrialized civilization as we know it, concomitant with an enormous reduction in worldwide population. Nevertheless, a lot of things would almost certainly remain: literacy, agriculture, metalworking, the ideas of science and industry, and so on. Human civilization would be in a very bad state for a good long time, but it would mostly be…

That is far from certainty. Industrialization depended on having easy and abundant access to natural resources like coal, oil, and various metals. We've exhausted the easy deposits of these resources, the ones a preindustrial civilization could get to. If civilization were to collapse now, it may never rise again.

I've seen that argument made many times, to be frank it's not actually as well founded as it seems.

This is because it confuses two very different things: ease of production of natural resources and cost effectiveness of production of natural resources. In the early stages of industrialization ease of production is paramount, but in later stages quality, production volume, and per unit cost is paramount. Early resources can be very much more expensive to produce and very much lower quality (as they were historically) and yet still be viable. Take coal for example. A small coal mine near the surface can be a quite viable source of coal in early industry, but such coal mines would not be economical in the modern era. Because modern coal is higher quality, much higher volume production, and mined out of areas where it is generally most amenable to industrialized production. There is an old abandoned coal mine within walking distance of me right now, I've been there and picked up coal off the surface of the ground. There's still literally tons of coal there that could be mined quite easily by hand. But compared to other sources of coal in the 21st century it's simply not economical to bother worrying about trying to extract it to depletion.

And the same exact principles apply to essentially every other natural resource. For example, we no longer mine bog iron because it's a very manual labor intensive work compared to, say, shoveling hematite sand into rail cars.

Additionally, this argument ignores the fact that vast amounts of resources will exist in the form of remnants of our present civilization (only the tiniest fraction of which will be vaporized by nuclear explosions). Huge amounts of iron, aluminum, glass, etc. will be left over, short-cutting the normal production process as for pre-industrial processes.

Re-industrialization after a collapse will be different than past industrialization but I see no indications that it will be very much more difficult and certainly not impossible.

Re: Nukes of Hazard (2013)

#159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is far from certainty. Industrialization depended on having easy and abundant access to natural resources like coal, oil, and various metals. We've exhausted the easy deposits of these resources, the ones a preindustrial civilization could get to. If civilization were to collapse now, it may never rise again.

I've seen that argument made many times, to be frank it's not actually as well founded as it seems. This is because it confuses two very different things: ease of production of natural resources and cost effectiveness of production of natural resources. In the early stages of industrialization ease of production is paramount, but in later stages quality, production volume, and per unit cost is paramount. Early resour…

Civilizations have collapsed before from far less serious disasters. From Mayans to Mediterranean civilizations (several of them actually) to the 5 centuries of decline and stagnation of China, and probably countless more I haven't read about. And the industrial world is far less resilient. We depend on huge amounts of infrastructure and massively complex systems of trade and production.

Very likely we would return to subsistence farming. There would be little or no remaining industry, and not enough resources to support it. Generations would go by with little technological progress. Metal would rust away, buildings collapse, forests regrow, and after awhile there wouldn't be much left of our civilization. (This is of course assuming a worst case scenario where the whole world is bombed or a nuclear winter happens.)

When we did finally get around to trying to rebuild civilization, sure there would be some scattered resource deposits around the world, but not enough to do anything with. You can't build steam engines without perfecting metallurgy and abundance of cheap, strong, metal. You need to produce many tons of cheap coal, not just scattered surface deposits. The industrial revolution started when deep underground mining became possible by pumping out water, and those mines are exhausted or lost.

Re: Nukes of Hazard (2013)

#160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I suspect, but cannot prove, the wikipedia number is more likely to be correct. The Wikipedia number is not correct, because even a single blast has long term consequences, and in a full scale war, the consequences are more significant than the initial damage. Even if the blast was just one a of a handful, survivors would have to contend with fallout from other detonations, followed by nuclear winter, followed by ye…

> "in a full scale war, the consequences are more significant" The specific point being discussed was a local disaster -- a 9 megaton bomb which was damaged by somebody dropping a tool on it -- not an all-out war scenario . Which is why I responded the way I did. In that scenario, I don't see any realistic case in which the entire state of Arkansas would be "wiped out". Possibly fallout would have rendered a fraction…

No, see the answer from aeturnum: use the online calculator, enable falout. You'll have to zoom out the map: the area of the effects is approximately as big as the state.

http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/?&kt=9000&lat=34.7464809&l...

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