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You Are Not Late

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Re: You Are Not Late

#41
post #18

How we access the internet has changed (mobile, smartphones, pervasive broadband), and businesses effectively provide great services connected to the Internet (Amazon in particular), but for me, the only real changes other than those from ~1992 to today are mixed: 1) Lots more people on the Internet 2) Lower barrier to access Sure, it's prettier, but USENET, IRC, etc. basically covered what we do with the Internet to…

Couldn't disagree with you more. To name just a dozen new internet things from the last 10 years that I did not have in 1990s. o Google o Wikipedia o Netflix o iTunes o Spotify/Pandora o Stack Exchange/Overflow o RSS (Google Reader/Feedly/etc..) o GitHub o Facebook o Instagram o Whatsapp o Gmail o Google Earth/Maps. I can only imagine what the next dozen new categories will be invented in the next 15 years.

> I can only imagine what the next dozen new categories will be invented in the next 15 years.

I don't think 15 years will make that much difference, the economics have changed and have been turned on the head. Today we have this handful of mega corporations with billions of cash in their coffers that are responsible for much of the services used by most of the world everyday and they also reap most of the revenue. Every new entrant even remotely successful it's either squashed or bought out, so I don't think there's there's the potential for a new company to reach the same heights. In fact, I think the market will be exactly the same, if there will be a bunch of new big companies out there, they will likely be started by the same entrepreneurs responsible for today's major ventures, they are the ones with the loads of cash, remember.

Re: You Are Not Late

#42
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Couldn't disagree with you more. To name just a dozen new internet things from the last 10 years that I did not have in 1990s. o Google o Wikipedia o Netflix o iTunes o Spotify/Pandora o Stack Exchange/Overflow o RSS (Google Reader/Feedly/etc..) o GitHub o Facebook o Instagram o Whatsapp o Gmail o Google Earth/Maps. I can only imagine what the next dozen new categories will be invented in the next 15 years.

Handling video and audio was an improvement brought mostly by computing technology vs. the Internet expanding; I'm fine with a LAN-local archive of music and video (admittedly, using flac/mp3 and bd remux and h264), and a lot of my content was ripped from physical media vs. downloaded. So the streaming services aren't terribly compelling to me. (Pictures, too -- until the late 1990s, graphics were a pain) USENET > RS…

re: streaming, the value is the instant access to the content. how did you fill up your hard drive? rip DVDs? Pirate it? Totally absurd to say streaming legal content instantly is not compelling vs. the file server/warez approach.

Web based e-mail is obviously superior to setting up your own mail server. Zero-install, access anywhere. I have memories of configuring sendmail and ripping my hair out. You really think this was a superior way of dealing with something as fundamental as e-mail? Nowadays it "just works." In the interim we had ISP hosted mail servers which were always broken, misconfigured, going down, and eating our e-mail. I remember walking on eggshells helping people set up their ISP e-mail knowing that I was one checkbox away ("Leave a copy of e-mail on server") from making it so their entire e-mail history was a hard drive crash from being destroyed permanently.

And don't get me started on OSS source control. Github has transformed the way open source works. CVS (and non DVCSes in general) sucked. The online tools sucked. I still cringe when I get redirected to source forge for a download. A lot of amazing work got done but I'd never want to go back there.

I'm with you that wikipedia "the software" could have been created in the 1990s, but it would have been a barren wasteland without the larger access the web has now. In fact, I'd be shocked if there weren't a handful of attempts to bild an open internet based encyclopedia during that time, and now we have selection bias making us think wikipedia was the first. So what you see there is an example of something that, imho, couldn't exist without wider access to the web. Ie, it's an example of not just better tooling but Internet applications that became enabled by wider access, which is what you seem to have been arguing against actually existing.

Re: You Are Not Late

#43
The argument made here is flawed. There is still plenty of "low hanging fruit" today but the cost/barrier of entry is significantly higher than it was in the early days.

"People in the future will look at their holodecks, and wearable virtual reality contact lenses, and downloadable avatars, and AI interfaces, and say, oh, you didn’t really have the internet"

Seems to me like even if developing a holodeck is looked at as an iterative process comprised of many small innovations it's still a lot more daunting and less feasible for a small team to do than building an online book store in the 90s.

With that said the internet is obviously in its infancy and the opportunities now are indeed boundless.

Re: You Are Not Late

#44
I love this article.

But honestly, I think we make an important and incorrect assumption- we try to revolutionise by evolution.

Why put smartphones on your wrist or your head and call it a revolution? Why make an app that is a Tinder or a Wikipedia or a Google for something else and call it a revolution?

The real revolutions are going to be things that havent been thought of yet, in any manner. In the meanwhile, we have this hyper-accelerated evolution- lets focus on lowering the barriers for entry...

Re: You Are Not Late

#45
post #40

Had to find out what eventually happened with Quittner/McDonalds.com: "Quittner did indeed offer the name back to McDonald's in one of his magazine columns, but not in exchange for money. In a manner reminiscent of the Princeton Review, he instead offered to surrender the domain name if McDonald's corporation would underwrite some Internet equipment for a grade school. This and other provoking articles caught the cor…

Would that nasty move be acceptable today for McDonalds? The Internet has changed some things.

Yes? That's basically what large corporations do today...

Nissan (the car company) is still working to get nissan.com, and they're almost exclusively attempting to do it through legal means instead of negotiating with the current owner.

Re: You Are Not Late

#46
There is no such thing as "the low-hanging fruit".

The year is 1982. Rodney Mullen just managed to perform the world's first "Ollie" skateboarding trick, that can be count as somewhat the start of the modern day street skateboarding.

What now is the most junior skateboarding trick (with available equipment, training etc.) was not a low-hanging fruit back then. While looking back, you can easily learn the trick by imitating; but back then there was no-one to learn it from. You had to go trial-and-error a sh*tload of times before making the first trick.

Of course it looks sooo low-hanging fruit now. With current equipment and support. But you have to realise that the tools and methods came afterwards, to support the original invention. But looking the time back then, you had none of the aids. Just you, climbing to that tall tree to grab the apple and plant the seeds so everyone else could grab the fruits from smaller trees.

Re: You Are Not Late

#47
post #45
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would that nasty move be acceptable today for McDonalds? The Internet has changed some things.

Yes? That's basically what large corporations do today... Nissan (the car company) is still working to get nissan.com, and they're almost exclusively attempting to do it through legal means instead of negotiating with the current owner.

What is acceptable for some companies is not for other companies.
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