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Ask HN: What is Y Combinator's 'anti-portfolio' like

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21–30 of 34 posts

Re: Ask HN: What is Y Combinator's 'anti-portfolio' like

#21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Alex3917 is there a link to your company I could check out. Congratulations on a huge milestone. I hope you take time to celebrate.

Thanks bill, the link is swagapalooza.com. Basically it's a conference that I'm leveraging to do other things. Hopefully I'll be able to post more about this over the next 6 months.

Basically it's a conference

The first header on your page is "NOT A CONFERENCE"

Re: Ask HN: What is Y Combinator's 'anti-portfolio' like

#22
post #17

Being accepted or not by YC has very little bearing on whether a startup can be successful or not, I do not expect there to be any significant correlation between YC rejected companies and accepted ones (in terms of success). They simply have a limited amount of time. What I do think you will find is that those that are bitter about a rejection tend to cluster around the failure point, mostly because they will be loo…

I do not expect there to be any significant correlation between YC rejected companies and accepted ones (in terms of success) Did you mean variation rather than correlation?

Sorry for being not clear, let me try again:

I assume YC is presented with a glut of choices, there would probably be a triage stage that runs something like this:

1) nonsense (say 60%)

2) maybes (say 20%)

3) positives (say 20%)

Of the positves YC can due to resource constraints only accept a certain number, say for the sake of the argument that YCs resource constraints allow it to accept half of them, or 10% of the original group.

If after that you follow the 10% that got accepted with the 10% that did not as a control group then I expect both groups to do equally well in terms of success, in other words the 'hit rate' should workout roughly the same in both groups.

YC will find that it has invested in some duds, most of them will be so-so and there will be a very limited amount of take-offs, in the other group the ratios will be very similar.

I hope that makes it more clear...

Re: Ask HN: What is Y Combinator's 'anti-portfolio' like

#24
post #8

I feel like this question is irrelevant. If YC looks at 1000 ideas, and thinks 100 are good - they still can't take all 100 (because they don't have the space/funding). Therefore a company being rejected from YC may have nothing to do with whether or not YC wanted them. Sometimes its just about logistics. Alas, I'm sure YC has rejected companies it knew would be successful, but accepted companies which were either mo…

But if a proportion of the other 900 companies are more successful that the 100 accepted companies, it provides some insight into the ability of YC to pick 'winners'. Particularly if a company that is turned down out perfoms a YC company in the same space/field.

Not necessarily; it could be that YC helps companies become winners (which it certainly professes to.) But both YC's ability to pick winners and their helpfulness to the chosen few would be disproved if there was no difference between rejected and accepted applicants.

Re: Ask HN: What is Y Combinator's 'anti-portfolio' like

#25
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do not expect there to be any significant correlation between YC rejected companies and accepted ones (in terms of success) Did you mean variation rather than correlation?

Sorry for being not clear, let me try again: I assume YC is presented with a glut of choices, there would probably be a triage stage that runs something like this: 1) nonsense (say 60%) 2) maybes (say 20%) 3) positives (say 20%) Of the positves YC can due to resource constraints only accept a certain number, say for the sake of the argument that YCs resource constraints allow it to accept half of them, or 10% of the…

That implies we have no effect on the outcomes of the startups we invest in. From what founders have told us, that doesn't seem to be the case.

Re: Ask HN: What is Y Combinator's 'anti-portfolio' like

#27
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks bill, the link is swagapalooza.com. Basically it's a conference that I'm leveraging to do other things. Hopefully I'll be able to post more about this over the next 6 months.

Basically it's a conference The first header on your page is "NOT A CONFERENCE"

I mean what's the point of starting a business if not to mess with people? :-)

Re: Ask HN: What is Y Combinator's 'anti-portfolio' like

#29
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry for being not clear, let me try again: I assume YC is presented with a glut of choices, there would probably be a triage stage that runs something like this: 1) nonsense (say 60%) 2) maybes (say 20%) 3) positives (say 20%) Of the positves YC can due to resource constraints only accept a certain number, say for the sake of the argument that YCs resource constraints allow it to accept half of them, or 10% of the…

That implies we have no effect on the outcomes of the startups we invest in. From what founders have told us, that doesn't seem to be the case.

It implies both no effect and no predictive power.

Re: Ask HN: What is Y Combinator's 'anti-portfolio' like

#30
post #23

My startup was rejected for YC summer '07. I launched it while working full-time for another company, built it to profitability over the course of a year and a half, and quit my day job in February of this year.

I remember checking out your site when it first launched and thought it was a great idea. Glad to hear you executed it well too!
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