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New russian 8-core CPU

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Re: New russian 8-core CPU

#31

Post by JoeAltmaier »

leaveyou wrote: post #30
JoeAltmaier wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But look at that list of customers - hardly rich nations. Total sales? Millions. Profit - around zero.

My opinion is, first, that this development is fueled for political and national security gains mainly and the commercial aspects of it are lower on the list. And second, if you try to measure the richness of those countries in dollars, they might be poor because they don't have dollars nor totally free access to markets where to obtain those dollars but still their natural resources, the work force and their politic…

But none of those things will buy CPUs. So the political issue is the only real one.

Re: New russian 8-core CPU

#32

Post by buster »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #23
buster wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like producing an ARM or Sparc or MIPS based design? Why would that be unimaginable? Qualcomm, AMD, Nvidia, Samsung and Co. do this. You're overestimating this and you're claiming that this processor would be new from the ground, which i don't see proof for. If it's a Sparc based design as others have claimed in this thread, it might become a slow, power-consuming processor, but it might work quite ok.

The ISA and even the logical architecture is easy. Laying it out and producing the chip is not, at all. You need a few billion $s investment in equipment AND people (you can poach the latter, the former is much harder to buy beyond outdated processes). China is better off taking over Taiwan, who have much of both.

No need for the latest and greates from the R&D departments of Intel. Even if the CPU will be at the level of some older Pentium models, it will be good enough to run office suites and Linux in some government departments. More then enough.

Re: New russian 8-core CPU

#33

Post by Zigurd »

anovikov wrote: post #4

This is entirely hopeless - their development budget is 0.05% of that of Intel. So these will never leave drawing board to become usable product, and this is not a field rational to invest in - general purpose processors are olygopoly market with decades long learning curve worth too much. Even if someone puts hundreds of billions dollars and decades of time to become competitive, this will only diminish returns in t…

Very much depends on the meaning of hopeless. State of the art power management and/or performance? Hopeless.

Taking this on outside of a consortium and using a novel "dynamic translation" architecture? Way not optimal.

Adequate performance for high-security requirements? Not so hopeless. Building and operating secure systems will costs thousands to tens of thousands per seat, so a few hundreds of dollars to know your CPUs are not back-doored is cheap in the greater scheme.

It could succumb to a wide range of reasons for failure. But making an CPU that doesn't have to be price/performance competitive is not out of reach for any of dozens of nations, if they feel a need to do it.

Re: New russian 8-core CPU

#34

Post by kjs3 »

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #25
leaveyou wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the long run, not only are they (the russians) going to use it in place of any foreign CPUs but lots of states which currently have no options would prefer to buy processors and software from the russians rather than the americans (Brazil, Iran, Syria, Cuba and many other "not aligned" countries). Russians/Soviets have a long history of having parallel development of technology (including special purpose microproc…

But look at that list of customers - hardly rich nations. Total sales? Millions. Profit - around zero.

Just because those nations aren't considered "rich", it doesn't mean they're penniless. Russia has a long history of profitable trade to that list of countries. They sold US$1.1 billion in goods to the Syrians alone in 2010. So the idea that they couldn't build an industry selling a good that those countries can't or won't buy from the West doesn't hold water.

Re: New russian 8-core CPU

#35

Post by logicallee »

anovikov wrote: post #4

This is entirely hopeless - their development budget is 0.05% of that of Intel. So these will never leave drawing board to become usable product, and this is not a field rational to invest in - general purpose processors are olygopoly market with decades long learning curve worth too much. Even if someone puts hundreds of billions dollars and decades of time to become competitive, this will only diminish returns in t…

No offense, but have you ever seen a successful startup? Your (very mistaken) arguments apply to literally every industry, ever - plus, you even give, then discount, a viable path to market for them at the end of your comment!

Re: New russian 8-core CPU

#36

Post by anovikov »

logicallee wrote: post #35
anovikov wrote: post #4

This is entirely hopeless - their development budget is 0.05% of that of Intel. So these will never leave drawing board to become usable product, and this is not a field rational to invest in - general purpose processors are olygopoly market with decades long learning curve worth too much. Even if someone puts hundreds of billions dollars and decades of time to become competitive, this will only diminish returns in t…

No offense, but have you ever seen a successful startup? Your (very mistaken) arguments apply to literally every industry, ever - plus, you even give, then discount, a viable path to market for them at the end of your comment!

There can be a successful startup in the processor arena. But it can never succeed by trying to do same thing better/cheaper. You want to offer replacement product on the other hand - very different but serving the same purpose.

You don't succeed in automotive industry by trying to directly compete with BMW, this is absolutely hopeless. Tesla has a real shot on success on the other hand.

Same here: next Intel won't be doing anything similar to Intel. But someone offering real quantum computing may get there. Someone making a chip with thousands of simple cores and somehow 'bringing Moore's law back' [1] may get there. But this one is just too similar. Intel's established, polished business processes on all levels can easily beat this.

1. http://www.paulgraham.com/ambitious.html

Re: New russian 8-core CPU

#37

Post by logicallee »

anovikov wrote: post #36
logicallee wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No offense, but have you ever seen a successful startup? Your (very mistaken) arguments apply to literally every industry, ever - plus, you even give, then discount, a viable path to market for them at the end of your comment!

There can be a successful startup in the processor arena. But it can never succeed by trying to do same thing better/cheaper. You want to offer replacement product on the other hand - very different but serving the same purpose. You don't succeed in automotive industry by trying to directly compete with BMW, this is absolutely hopeless. Tesla has a real shot on success on the other hand. Same here: next Intel won't b…

Sorry, I just find your argument without any merit. Contrary to your claim, Tesla does compete directly with BMW, for the same sales dollars, in the same part of the market, providing a solution to the same audience, and even segment, and in the same problem space. If we can't agree on even the definition of "compete", it's unlikely that we can further each other's understanding.

Also, the idea that 'if they succeed' (not a quote) then " this will only diminish returns in the industry as whole so will be anyway bad investment" (your comment) is just contrary to the experience of any other startup that succeeds.

It's just bad economics. I would question whether you've ever seen a successful startup - there is no shame in saying you haven't. But if you want to contribute meaningfully, then IMHO I would look into some.

Sorry if I'm blunt.

Re: New russian 8-core CPU

#38

Post by tribaal »

ten7 wrote: post #18
tribaal wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess it is purely political. Russia wants to be independent from the US for computers, because they fear (rightfully) American chips to be bugged. Having slow, expensive chips made in Russia is probably more interesting to certain agencies than fast and cheap American chips - or relying on typewriters :)

The Americans should probably fear bugged Russian processors too, right?

Well yeah, if they were to buy made-in-russia processors. Which is very unlikely.

Re: New russian 8-core CPU

#39

Post by chdir »

chillingeffect wrote: post #20
chdir wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are looking at it from an entirely different angle. You don't have to be Intel. Within 3-4 years you can have a neat processor comparable with current crop of mobile processors - assuming you have a good team & funding, no commercial pressure & can trust ARM. That's the time frame it takes to setup & go to market with a mobile processor company in silicon valley.

Sure but if you decide to not compete with Intel and instead compete with Qualcomm, then the same story applies: 3-4 years from now Qualcomm will have the Triple Dragon Q-Zap 500+, built in Intel's foundries at ~12nm, and the Russians will have this.

You're missing the point. They aren't doing it for commercial success. You don't have to compete with Qualcomm or Intel or anyone. You just have to be able to produce processors that can handle the government issue about not trusting US made processors.

Re: New russian 8-core CPU

#40

Post by DominikR »

anovikov wrote: post #4

This is entirely hopeless - their development budget is 0.05% of that of Intel. So these will never leave drawing board to become usable product, and this is not a field rational to invest in - general purpose processors are olygopoly market with decades long learning curve worth too much. Even if someone puts hundreds of billions dollars and decades of time to become competitive, this will only diminish returns in t…

So they should just accept dominance of the US in this industry and not even try to advance their own technology? Is this your suggestion?

Why should they do that? So that they can be pressured by possible sanctions in the future? (which wont work at the moment, since Russia is a strategic partner of China - but it might change in the next decade)

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