Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.? • Hacker News Board

Re: Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.?

#41

Post by andrewflnr » Sat, Jul 05, 2014, 4:53 AM UTC

emiliobumachar wrote: post #22

sliverstorm wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Secondly, when people die in many of these cultures, there is much more physical connection with the body, potentially spreading the disease more. You would think this would have been selected against ages ago.

Human culture changes way too fast for evolution to act.

On the contrary, I would say that evolution works pretty quickly to weed out cultural phenomena like, say, suicide cults, in much the same way that it works quickly to remove gross physical deformities.

Re: Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.?

#42

Post by jychang » Sat, Jul 05, 2014, 5:10 AM UTC

The_Pherocity wrote: post #33

psychometry wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those are all arguments as to why Ebola might not spread within Europe or the U.S. This article is about whether it could spread to those places.

Yea, that's how conversation works. Someone posts an article, then clever people talk about it. Some agree, some give experiences, some add additional facts and resources, and other people offer counter arguments. This is a counter argument to the article. What you posted, besides being blatantly obvious, is simply noise and does not add to the conversation.

I'm pretty sure you misread the parent comment.

The original question posed is about the chances of ebola spreading TO western nations. However, the grandparent question answers the chances of ebola spreading WITHIN western nations.

The epidemiology of the former involves questions like transportation controls, quarantine of travelers, border controls, and perhaps even banning international imports from involved nations. The latter involves differences in cultural behaviors, sanitation levels, healthcare coverage, etc.

They are very different questions.

Re: Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.?

#43

Post by Throwaway618 » Sat, Jul 05, 2014, 6:31 AM UTC

psychometry wrote: post #38

The_Pherocity wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yea, that's how conversation works. Someone posts an article, then clever people talk about it. Some agree, some give experiences, some add additional facts and resources, and other people offer counter arguments. This is a counter argument to the article. What you posted, besides being blatantly obvious, is simply noise and does not add to the conversation.

I'm amazed you managed to misread a comment that was only two sentences long. The title of the article is--in case you missed that, too--"Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.?" The previous comment did not address that question and instead answered a completely different question. What doesn't add to the conversation is obnoxious pedantry like your comment.

What does add to the conversation, apparently, is continual snide assertions that parent didn't add to the conversation.

(I actually don't have any problem with snide obnoxiousness. "I'm amazed you could [be so incredibly idiotic]" is upfront at least. What I do get tired of is a continual tree, like this one, of "You shouldn't have said that.")

Re: Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.?

#44

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Jul 05, 2014, 6:38 AM UTC

psychometry wrote: post #38

The_Pherocity wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yea, that's how conversation works. Someone posts an article, then clever people talk about it. Some agree, some give experiences, some add additional facts and resources, and other people offer counter arguments. This is a counter argument to the article. What you posted, besides being blatantly obvious, is simply noise and does not add to the conversation.

I'm amazed you managed to misread a comment that was only two sentences long. The title of the article is--in case you missed that, too--"Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.?" The previous comment did not address that question and instead answered a completely different question. What doesn't add to the conversation is obnoxious pedantry like your comment.

[deleted]

Re: Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.?

#45

Post by swombat » Sat, Jul 05, 2014, 6:54 AM UTC

gus_massa wrote: post #14

KhalilK wrote: post #5

So should Europe and the U.S. begin worrying about the virus? As a North African inhabitant (Tunisia), I can't help but consider this egocentric. Are other African countries somehow doomed?

It will very difficult for the virus to cross the Sahara. It needs to infect a traveler at the right time in the right direction. Also, I guess that there are more from trips from Conakry to Paris than to Tunis, so probably Tunis is safer than Paris. But IANAMD and YMMV.

With a 3-week incubation period as mentioned in the MSF letters, that doesn't sound so impossible...

Re: Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.?

#46

Post by kordless » Sat, Jul 05, 2014, 7:49 AM UTC

Fomite wrote: post #36

nickthemagicman wrote: post #28

The burn rate is too fast for Ebola plus Ebola isn't transmitted via air(yet) so even if it did contaminate America or Europe it could be contained rather easily.

The notion that "the burn rate" is too fast is both on epidemiologically shaky ground, and something I'd be disinclined to rely on given "the burn rate is too fast" was supposed to be why we hadn't seen Ebola in places now experiencing outbreaks.

Aparently, so is the air part: http://healthmap.org/site/diseasedaily/article/pigs-monkeys-.... I was fascinated by its structure - a filament - and it's small size of code - only about 20K base pairs. Also, it's mutation rate is pretty high. That sucks.

Re: Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.?

#47

Post by sentenza » Sat, Jul 05, 2014, 7:57 AM UTC

KhalilK wrote: post #5

So should Europe and the U.S. begin worrying about the virus? As a North African inhabitant (Tunisia), I can't help but consider this egocentric. Are other African countries somehow doomed?

I'd say the assumption is that other African countries already are worried and taking action.

It's also important to consider the severity that an Ebola outbreak develops based on its transport options. Usually, an Ebola outbreak devastates a village or a few villages. This current outbreak has spread over multiple countries.

What do you think will happen, when the first Ebola patient appears in Frankfurt, Heathrow or Dubai?

Re: Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.?

#48

Post by quattrofan » Sat, Jul 05, 2014, 8:42 AM UTC

What is the likelihood ebola could mutate into something that could be spread by aerosol?

Re: Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.?

#49

Post by nickthemagicman » Sat, Jul 05, 2014, 9:20 AM UTC

kordless wrote: post #46

Fomite wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The notion that "the burn rate" is too fast is both on epidemiologically shaky ground, and something I'd be disinclined to rely on given "the burn rate is too fast" was supposed to be why we hadn't seen Ebola in places now experiencing outbreaks.

Aparently, so is the air part: http://healthmap.org/site/diseasedaily/article/pigs-monkeys-... . I was fascinated by its structure - a filament - and it's small size of code - only about 20K base pairs. Also, it's mutation rate is pretty high. That sucks.

Notice I put yet in parenthesis. Google: Reston ebola virus, or just read the hot zone.

You want stuff to be afraid of look up: drug resistant tuberculosis, or the scientist Yoshihiro Kawaoka.

Re: Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.?

#50

Post by DanBC » Sat, Jul 05, 2014, 9:26 AM UTC

sliverstorm wrote: post #15

giarc wrote: post #3

The largest driver of this outbreak (and many ebola outbreaks) is the fear of healthcare and the way many cultures treat the deceased. These two issues are what would make transmission to NA or Europe very unlikely. Many people in African nations will stay away from hospitals because they believe they will get Ebola from the hospital. Therefore often people that are sick die of Ebola in the community and therefore sp…

Secondly, when people die in many of these cultures, there is much more physical connection with the body, potentially spreading the disease more. You would think this would have been selected against ages ago.

Eating corpses seems to be selected out with diseases like Kuru.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuru_(disease)

That's is rather more contact with a corpse than most funeral practices involve.