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The Economy

blog.samaltman.com

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Re: The Economy

#211

Post by scoofy »

lukasm wrote: post #191

It's intriguing that US economy is slowing down since WWII. What are the reasons? 1. No significant improvements like agriculture. 2. Increasing regulations 3. Big middle class that have no strong motivation to advance further or have "enough money" for good living (modulo individuals) 4. Growth in domain which GDP doesn't capture e.g. Open Source 5. No obvious investments opportunities e.g. Highway

I'd say it's probably just the world slowly but surely becoming less dependent on the U.S. economy after the entire world economy was destroyed in a War.

And, yes, birthrates and longer retirement are probably relevant.

Re: The Economy

#212

Post by jeffdavis »

throwawaymsft wrote: post #152
fchollet wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Although Google has done a much better PR around its research efforts, IBM and Microsoft are both investing much more in R&D. Microsoft is the tech company with the most research investment.

I'd caution using R&D investment as a metric. Historically, it seems the huge game changers (Google, Apple, Facebook, etc.) came from motivated individuals and not corporate research labs. Microsoft's early and enormous investments did not help them catch/contribute to the search/social/tablet/mobile wave which generated much of the value in the tech economy the past decade.

What about, say, the solid-state transistor?

Re: The Economy

#213

Post by [deleted] »

ef4 wrote: post #78
lexcorvus wrote: post #49

In this context, I hope at some point sama has a chance (if he hasn't already) to read the post "Sam Altman is not a blithering idiot" by Mencius Moldbug: http://unqualified-reservations.blogspot.com/2013/03/sam-alt... The basic problem with our society is a disconnect between consensus reality and actual reality. We actually have no shortage of natural leaders. But they cannot actually lead us anywhere. They are ope…

It's also critically wrong in understanding technology: "one run of a time machine, with a printout of Wikipedia, would be pretty much all the real 1950 needed. Send the technology back to 1945, and you'll have iPads by '55 at the latest. Those guys got things done." That kind of thinking betrays a common misunderstanding. The limiting factor on what we can build at any given time is very rarely ideas . In 1950, peop…

[deleted]

Re: The Economy

#214

Post by gone35 »

thaumaturgy wrote: post #207
gone35 wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Again, I don't blame you because it is counterintuitive, but I invite you to read Section 6 ("Financial Crises") of the Bordo, Eichengreen and Irwin 1999 paper (linked above), to appreciate the extent to which globalization then was indeed similar to today's --even in terms of the number of countries involved, the role of supranational institutions, and the "contagion" effects of local crises via economic linkages. I…

I'm reading that paper now (and I'll read the other later tonight). Thank you for linking to it, it's interesting so far. I'm a little confused though: in the beginning of the paper, it seems to be supporting some of my thesis, that the modern global economy is more interconnected than it has been at any recent point in history. e.g., "We conclude that our world is different: commercial and financial integration befo…

No, you are right! I completely misread the paper. From the conclusion:

"While presenting a good deal of detail, we have sought in this paper to emphasize a small number of general points. First, the globalization of commodity and financial markets is historically unprecedented. Facile comparisons with the late nineteenth century notwithstanding, the international integration of capital and commodity markets goes further and runs deeper than ever before."

Thank you for pointing this out! I stand corrected.

Re: The Economy

#215

Post by Tycho »

nostromo wrote: post #134

We need to find the next big growth engine. Like "the internet" big, or its baby brother "mobile" big. (Imagine what the US economy would be like without those growth engines. Even with them, their effect on the US GDP growth chart in the article is unnoticeable.) I have a hard time thinking of things that could be so dramatic in terms of growth. AI, radical life extension, space elevators, renewables... I'm not sure…

I think the most likely next big growth engine will be drones. However the opportunity will probably go to China, who will make up for lack of innovation with deregulation, meanwhile western countries will be too anxious about terrorism to allow drones to fly about their cities/countryside making deliveries, spraying crops, etc.

Re: The Economy

#216

Post by lkrubner »

tdees40 wrote: post #24

I'm not clear on how any of this will lead to a recession. Why will high Debt-to-GDP or government spending send the economy into a recession? Q1 GDP numbers were clearly affected by dismal weather (although still bad), but labor markets are improving markedly, and there are reasons for optimism. I don't see this as a very convincing bear case. For the bull case, see this post, from a guy who's been right about every…

I just submitted the Calculated Risk article to Hacker News. That is a very good article.

Re: The Economy

#217

Post by dragonwriter »

Humjob wrote: post #66
tdees40 wrote: post #24

I'm not clear on how any of this will lead to a recession. Why will high Debt-to-GDP or government spending send the economy into a recession? Q1 GDP numbers were clearly affected by dismal weather (although still bad), but labor markets are improving markedly, and there are reasons for optimism. I don't see this as a very convincing bear case. For the bull case, see this post, from a guy who's been right about every…

If government debt grows high enough then an increasingly large percentage of federal spending will be devoted to paying interest on that debt rather than on arguably more useful areas which create future prosperity, such as education and scientific research. After a certain point this becomes unsustainable and bad things start to happen, ranging from total political & economic collapse (Germany in the 1920s) to hype…

> the current left-right political divide is largely a debate over the point at which government taxation and spending becomes undesirable and inefficient.

Its often presented that way -- almost exclusively by people on the right, however -- but as I see it the left/right debate is less about fact questions (even somewhat fuzzy ones like the efficiency question you propose) and more about the ethical/moral/value issue of what is the purpose of government.

Re: The Economy

#218

Post by gautambay »

scarmig wrote: post #178
gautambay wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fair points, all. However, markets fail when there is a misalignment of incentives and/or lack of information/education. I view the government's job primarily as aligning people's incentives with the desired long-term direction. In India (where I'm from), there have been decades of dole-outs for the poor (especially farmers), but it has failed to create any long-term economic benefits for those communities. On the ot…

I doubt that the basic income bears much resemblance to the dole-outs for the poor in India. "For the poor" is the kicker: by far the most economically appealing aspect of the basic income is that it's provided to everyone. If it's only provided to a particular type of person, that offers opportunities for corruption, administrative costs, and, most importantly, a very sharp disincentive against improving yourself an…

Valid points on the complexity and the ensuing corruption.

I suspect that as real-time data-gathering becomes cheaper and more prevalent, the costs of policing will become trivial. That's certainly some years away though.

Re: The Economy

#219

Post by tdees40 »

lkrubner wrote: post #216
tdees40 wrote: post #24

I'm not clear on how any of this will lead to a recession. Why will high Debt-to-GDP or government spending send the economy into a recession? Q1 GDP numbers were clearly affected by dismal weather (although still bad), but labor markets are improving markedly, and there are reasons for optimism. I don't see this as a very convincing bear case. For the bull case, see this post, from a guy who's been right about every…

I just submitted the Calculated Risk article to Hacker News. That is a very good article.

It's a fantastic blog. Lots of data, minimal bloviating.

Re: The Economy

#220

Post by lexcorvus »

ef4 wrote: post #78
lexcorvus wrote: post #49

In this context, I hope at some point sama has a chance (if he hasn't already) to read the post "Sam Altman is not a blithering idiot" by Mencius Moldbug: http://unqualified-reservations.blogspot.com/2013/03/sam-alt... The basic problem with our society is a disconnect between consensus reality and actual reality. We actually have no shortage of natural leaders. But they cannot actually lead us anywhere. They are ope…

It's also critically wrong in understanding technology: "one run of a time machine, with a printout of Wikipedia, would be pretty much all the real 1950 needed. Send the technology back to 1945, and you'll have iPads by '55 at the latest. Those guys got things done." That kind of thinking betrays a common misunderstanding. The limiting factor on what we can build at any given time is very rarely ideas . In 1950, peop…

One way to see how technology can be factored out is to consider a time when it changed more slowly. For instance, technology in ancient Rome hardly changed between, say, 180 A.D. and 400 A.D., at least by 21st century standards, and yet there's no doubt that Roman civilization declined precipitously during that time.

One of Moldbug's claims is that similar declines in the last two centuries or so have been masked by technological improvements. For example, in the 1960s many people routinely left their cars unlocked, often even leaving their keys in the ignition. [1] Meanwhile, technological improvements in the intervening ~50 years have made it much harder to steal cars. The way to factor out technology in this case is to imagine what would happen if modern cars had no alarm systems, no LoJacks, were easy to hot-wire, etc., and if people routinely left keys in the ignition of unlocked cars. It's not even hypothetical—you could actually do this as a real experiment. The result would, I predict, show that (at least in this narrow respect) American civilization has declined in the intervening years.

[1]: http://www.vdare.com/articles/why-hasnt-crime-fallen-further...

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