91–100 of 270 posts
"Entitlement" is a dog whistle that is used in place of "welfare". http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Entitlement_program
It's a dismal situation. Low interest rates mean cheap money in theory, but the "people" best equipped to take advantage of it are corporations. It's not like average people are able to start businesses just because the interest rate is low. However, low interest rates mean the penalty (to companies) for hoarding and for general risk aversion is also low. This means that lousy executives don't get a lot of investor p…
Like the story about two guys running from the bear, you don't have to run faster than the bear, you just need to run faster than the other guy, and Dilbert doesn't exactly have an ultra-marathoners physique.
I'm not clear on how any of this will lead to a recession. Why will high Debt-to-GDP or government spending send the economy into a recession? Q1 GDP numbers were clearly affected by dismal weather (although still bad), but labor markets are improving markedly, and there are reasons for optimism. I don't see this as a very convincing bear case. For the bull case, see this post, from a guy who's been right about every…
I'm not clear on how any of this will lead to a recession. Why will high Debt-to-GDP or government spending send the economy into a recession? Q1 GDP numbers were clearly affected by dismal weather (although still bad), but labor markets are improving markedly, and there are reasons for optimism. I don't see this as a very convincing bear case. For the bull case, see this post, from a guy who's been right about every…
You could have two quarters of -0.5% growth, and that would mean recession. Or one quarter of -3% growth, and that doesn't mean recession, despite being worse than the two quarters. It's a silly way to calculate the state of the economy. Besides that, inflation is intentionally understated, GDP is contracting at a worse rate than stated in the headlines. 2% GDP growth is a recession in this environment of intentional central bank inflation schemes.
Not once post WW2, has the US economy shrank by more than 1.5% in a single quarter and then not entered a recession (or already been in one).
Housing has begun to tip over, as the Fed pulls its asset inflation program. Corporate earnings growth is anemic at best, most blue chips are struggling to grow at all (MCD, KO, IBM, WMT, etc). The vast majority of growth in the stock market has come from multiple expansion, not from earnings growth. Full time jobs are still far under where they were in 2007, while simultaneously welfare benefits are dramatically higher, including labor problem indicators such as SS disability (and of course labor force participation is at 35 year lows).
This all with 0% interest rates. If you can't grow an economy with 0% interest rates, you're in for a very, very bad time.
Stocks tend to hit new record highs just before a recession begins. This happened with both of prior Fed asset inflation parties, in the late 1990s (2000 peak) and early 2000s (2007 peak). They repeated the same inflation recipe, trying to fake a wealth effect, and turned it up several notches. The same result will occur again on the backside, for obvious reasons.
He just suggested a basic income for everybody. I just wanted to point this out in case people missed it when skimming.
A basic income is a great idea...it would also be a good idea to completely remove the profit motive from health care. A social safety net that includes a living wage, guaranteed higher education, and retirement is completely possible if you don't spend so much on defense and intelligence.
How about "guaranteed job training?" That way, if you wish to pursue a career that does not require a post-secondary degree, you can prepare yourself for that career just as well as the white collar worked who spends four years studying post-modern poetry.
N.B.: I have degrees in philosophy and writing, so I'm criticizing the study of the liberal arts.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
i prefer universal essential services (healthcare, education, etc.) over a guaranteed basic income. with basic income, you run the risk that the receivers spend it on shiny objects (especially in an economy like ours with rampant consumerism) instead of things that benefit them and their families long-term. of course, what constitutes "essential services" can be the subject of a lengthy debate.
Ah, the classic paternalistic argument. It's deeply appealing to many people's preconceptions. But a growing body of experimental results call it into question. When you actually conduct the experiment -- a randomized controlled trial where you give some poor people cash and others in-kind services, the cash group outperforms.
He just suggested a basic income for everybody. I just wanted to point this out in case people missed it when skimming.
A basic income is a great idea...it would also be a good idea to completely remove the profit motive from health care. A social safety net that includes a living wage, guaranteed higher education, and retirement is completely possible if you don't spend so much on defense and intelligence.
If I had a fatal disease with no known cure, I want a system that makes whoever finds the cure filthy rich. That's my best chance at survival. If anything, I want a system with even more profit motive.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
i prefer universal essential services (healthcare, education, etc.) over a guaranteed basic income. with basic income, you run the risk that the receivers spend it on shiny objects (especially in an economy like ours with rampant consumerism) instead of things that benefit them and their families long-term. of course, what constitutes "essential services" can be the subject of a lengthy debate.
Ah, the classic paternalistic argument. It's deeply appealing to many people's preconceptions. But a growing body of experimental results call it into question. When you actually conduct the experiment -- a randomized controlled trial where you give some poor people cash and others in-kind services, the cash group outperforms.
I'm not clear on how any of this will lead to a recession. Why will high Debt-to-GDP or government spending send the economy into a recession? Q1 GDP numbers were clearly affected by dismal weather (although still bad), but labor markets are improving markedly, and there are reasons for optimism. I don't see this as a very convincing bear case. For the bull case, see this post, from a guy who's been right about every…
Agreed. Further, there's little evidence that Debt-to-GDP over 100% (despite "feeling" meaningful, because, 100%!) has any kind of predictive value for the long term direction of an economy, particularly one that has unusually low interest rates. If Debt-to-GDP were a problem for the US, you'd expect higher interest rates, not lower ones, as investors would be demanding higher returns on US debt. The fact that intere…
Paying our current level of interest on our debt is not crushing. But it's not hard to imagine the rates tripling (or more) considering how close to zero the rates are now. Then we are over $1 trillion/yr in debt service (if my calculations are correct).
Combined with what seems like a structural deficit, I don't see any good way we'd get out of that.
In other words, we're not falling off a cliff now, but it seems like fragile situation.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
They are called entitlements to make people think that some undeserving class is getting over...they think they are "entitled"...is the way that is put. It was done on purpose by conservatives. Its a dog whistle.
I don't think that comes from where you think it does. I think it comes from the fact that people are literally entitled to that money via the legal contract we've set up - it is spoken for.
Aside from employees, .gov gives people money two ways:
1) Contracts. 200 F-22 for $100B or so. $1M for the service contract for that server for a year. Usually involves a psuedo competitive bidding process, a lack of one is unusual enough that you get the phrase "no bid contract" because its an oddity.
2) Entitlements. If you meet these requirements, you get this money, or income tax credit, or whatever. You're entitled as a member of a class where that class is poor dudes or historic property investors or hybrid car owner or whatever. Usually doesn't involve competitive bidding or auctions at all.
You're just going to confuse people by mixing contracts and entitlements in the same line.