The Economy • Hacker News Board

Re: The Economy

#21

Post by 001sky » Mon, Jun 30, 2014, 6:56 PM UTC

US GDP growth in real dollars is low (and trending down). It was 2.9% for Q1 2014 after the second official revision [1]. If it’s down again for Q2, we’ll be in a recession.

Just a nit, but to be clear...

1Q 2014 GDP #s (revised) growth rate was negative 2.9% (-2.9%).

The second sentence in the quote also implies as much, so I think the quoted text has an oversight/typo.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101787838

Re: The Economy

#22

Post by sama » Mon, Jun 30, 2014, 6:56 PM UTC

klunger wrote: post #7

He just suggested a basic income for everybody. I just wanted to point this out in case people missed it when skimming.

oops, i accidentally published an earlier draft. i added a bit more of my thinking here--my sense is that it would probably lead to less waste than current systems.

i'm also not sure it's the right approach, but i haven't heard any better ideas yet.

Re: The Economy

#23

Post by johnward » Mon, Jun 30, 2014, 6:56 PM UTC

moblahbl4hblah wrote: post #12

klunger wrote: post #7

He just suggested a basic income for everybody. I just wanted to point this out in case people missed it when skimming.

A basic income is a great idea...it would also be a good idea to completely remove the profit motive from health care. A social safety net that includes a living wage, guaranteed higher education, and retirement is completely possible if you don't spend so much on defense and intelligence.

I'm no economist but at some point aren't we going to become so productive that there won't be enough need for workers. Are we maybe at that point now? If every single person wanted to work there would not be enough jobs to support that. So what happens in the future? Some people have jobs and are rich while the rest are in poverty and can't eat? I don't think society could function with that many people not having an income. If it came down to it and I had to kill you for my family to survive then I'd hate to tell you which one I would choose.

Re: The Economy

#24

Post by tdees40 » Mon, Jun 30, 2014, 6:57 PM UTC

I'm not clear on how any of this will lead to a recession. Why will high Debt-to-GDP or government spending send the economy into a recession?

Q1 GDP numbers were clearly affected by dismal weather (although still bad), but labor markets are improving markedly, and there are reasons for optimism. I don't see this as a very convincing bear case.

For the bull case, see this post, from a guy who's been right about everything since the mid-2000s.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/06/the-future-is-stil...

Re: The Economy

#25

Post by gregoryw » Mon, Jun 30, 2014, 6:57 PM UTC

Corporate savings are high across a broad basket of companies like the S&P500 because the earnings of multinationals are parked in Luxembourg, avoiding US taxes. We've all read about the Double Dutch and other IP licensing schemes that avoid taxes for Google, Apple and others. I personally feel these funds are waiting for a US corporate income tax holiday, perhaps under the guise of creating new jobs and investment domestically. The stock price of companies like Apple has their cash balance as "money good", meaning the market doesn't believe they'll pay tax on the $150 billion parked overseas.

Sam's zero interest rate point is the most salient to the startup world. It forces accredited investors to chase asset classes like technology startups for yield. You also see it in the midwest in oil, gas and other natural resource drilling/mining. These are long term 10 year investments for these investors to park their cash.

Re: The Economy

#26

Post by zenogais » Mon, Jun 30, 2014, 6:57 PM UTC

fokinsean wrote: post #13

Does anyone think we are heading towards an economic collapse?

Seeing as how "natural economic growth" is not infinitely sustainable (I'm operating under the assumptions that there are finite quantities of natural resources and human ingenuity is not infinite and infallible). It's probabilistically inevitable.

Re: The Economy

#27

Post by bluthru » Mon, Jun 30, 2014, 6:58 PM UTC

sp332 wrote: post #16

moblahbl4hblah wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A basic income is a great idea...it would also be a good idea to completely remove the profit motive from health care. A social safety net that includes a living wage, guaranteed higher education, and retirement is completely possible if you don't spend so much on defense and intelligence.

You can't remove the profit motive from health care.

What do you mean? It's quite common.

Re: The Economy

#28

Post by fokinsean » Mon, Jun 30, 2014, 6:59 PM UTC

zenogais wrote: post #26

fokinsean wrote: post #13

Does anyone think we are heading towards an economic collapse?

Seeing as how "natural economic growth" is not infinitely sustainable (I'm operating under the assumptions that there are finite quantities of natural resources and human ingenuity is not infinite and infallible). It's probabilistically inevitable.

Yeah I agree, I guess what I meant to ask is if we are going to experience one in the near future (within 10 years)

Re: The Economy

#29

Post by zentiggr » Mon, Jun 30, 2014, 7:00 PM UTC

sp332 wrote: post #16

moblahbl4hblah wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A basic income is a great idea...it would also be a good idea to completely remove the profit motive from health care. A social safety net that includes a living wage, guaranteed higher education, and retirement is completely possible if you don't spend so much on defense and intelligence.

You can't remove the profit motive from health care.

Please expand on that - I personally think for-profit health care is one of the most ill-conceived ways of doing business I have ever heard of. Saving people's lives but only in ways that are investor-friendly?

Re: The Economy

#30

Post by sp332 » Mon, Jun 30, 2014, 7:00 PM UTC

bluthru wrote: post #27

sp332 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't remove the profit motive from health care.

What do you mean? It's quite common.

Some technology will be too expensive to provide, or some procedure will require skills that are too rare. They will command high prices. And you can't find enough doctors, hospital administrators, drug researchers etc for a whole country without finding some greedy/rational ones who will do better work for more pay.