Earlier quoted context omitted.
5% is IMO extremely generous. Basically what that means is that there is a 5% chance that: 1 - Your options will fully vest before you leave the company due to internal or external factors 2 - The company will reach an exit (as opposed to flop over and die) 3 - The company will reach an exit sizable enough that after accounting for cut price, your options are still worth the value when you got them (accounting for in…
I wasn't advocating you take a pay cut for options. ;) But I think $0 is wrong as well. http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1000087239639044372020... 75% fail. 11% go public or acquired. It is a lottery ticket but those don't sell at $0.
It is common for floundering companies to sell or go for acquihires, in which case your options are most certainly underwater and worthless.
Even in small acquisitions (that aren't just a fire-sale in disguise) it's quite possible for the investors and founders to get paid, but leave employees with little to no payout as well (certainly not the tune the options were originally valued).
Considering how difficult it is to differentiate between a "real" acquisition (with requisite payouts for all involved) and desperation acquisitions/acquihires, I doubt we'll ever see the true percentage. In any case, as an employee holding options, you are the last in line to get paid, never forget that.
My personal, unscientific ballpark is that the odds of exiting your options for at least the same amount as the original grant valuation is somewhere in the sub-1% range.