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Dear Marc Andreessen

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141–150 of 194 posts

Re: Dear Marc Andreessen

#141
post #135
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My policy preference would be a law that creating a universal wage subsidy of $7.75 an hour, thus guarantees every worker a total wage of at least $15 an hour. I really like this idea. Lately I've been thinking about minimum wage laws (SF, $15/hr min wage, etc) and something about it rubs me the wrong way. It feels like minimum wage laws are a convenient way for governments to take all the credit for improving the…

You do realize that every time minimum wages are raised like this the cost(s) are simply passed on through to the consumers. The net effect is that the cost base rises with the wage base, so no one actually gets ahead - the nominal price point is just set to a higher figure.

I don't believe this is actually true. Compare the cost of living and minimum wage in Sydney, Australia with comparable cities in the US(San Francisco for example) or Canada(Vancouver). The cost is about the same for most things despite Sydney having a much higher minimum wage.

Re: Dear Marc Andreessen

#142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

..."job of last resort" program... But why? Why is it so necessary that everyone spend their days working? Why not just allow the structurally unemployed to pursue whatever it is that they want to do? I'm not saying we have to give them all mansions and butlers, but why do we have to make up fake, worthless jobs for them to do? It seems as though overall human happiness would be better optimized by allowing them to s…

I answered that same question here - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7907937 I think most people are not natural aristocrats. They are not going to be tinkering in their home laboratories, crafting programming languages or writing ebooks. I fear that most people will degenerate in every manner if not subjected to the discipline of work. They will end up drinking and playing video games all day long. Furthermore,…

The degeneration you fear sounds like a fine alternative to me. I'd rather deal with happy drunks than stressed out angry workers. Idleness doesn't bother me. The crime you allude to is usually committed by the young men who have no income in those situations and result to crime to obtain funds.

Re: Dear Marc Andreessen

#143
post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I answered that same question here - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7907937 I think most people are not natural aristocrats. They are not going to be tinkering in their home laboratories, crafting programming languages or writing ebooks. I fear that most people will degenerate in every manner if not subjected to the discipline of work. They will end up drinking and playing video games all day long. Furthermore,…

> Try giving the money away with no strings attached in one city or state (far away from me please) and see what happens. My Alma Mater did that in the 70s. The results were unequivocably positive. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mincome

"However, some have argued these drops may be artificially low because participants knew the guaranteed income was temporary."

That negates the experiment. There is little incentive to quit your job or loaf when the free money is only temporary. It may also take years for the effects to be felt, as social norms break down gradually. Also, there is a big, big difference between doing this policy in a small town in Canada, where there can be social pressure to not free-load, and where you have a population with a strong cultural work ethnic, versus enacting this policy in a large, heterogeneous city.

Re: Dear Marc Andreessen

#144
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I cannot imagine retarding technology just to preserve existing jobs being a winning strategy which makes the world better. The problem is accelerating technology doesn't make the world automatically better either. It can also make it patently worse. E.g, someone presses the red button, and here's a nuclear war. Or some idiot gets access to viruses, and here's a bio attack that wipes out half the population. It's t…

> Compared to that kind of harm to the whole of humanity, some people getting an "artificial heart", a guy walking on the moon, and being able to exchange IMs with WhatsApp on one's mobile is not that much of an balance at all. Just something to keep in mind, lest someone thinks technology is all just "embetterment". Woah, what? Are you really saying that the negative uses of technology in the World Wars have outweig…

>Woah, what? Are you really saying that the negative uses of technology in the World Wars have outweighed the positive uses of technology (even if we limit ourselves to a timeframe that contains an unusual amount of war deaths)?

I gave the World Wars as an example. Perhaps you missed the part where I also mentioned possible outcomes like a full on nuclear war (enabled by technology etc). And of course, there's also climate change and such. Or even simple rampant deaths due to overuse of antibiotics.

Compared to such ability (and possibility) to wipe all humanity, the "decline in the mortality rate of giving birth" is not that much impressive.

Not to mention it has little to do with any advanced technology, and more with simple precautions, like running water, cleaner birth environments, etc. You can get over 80% of the decrease in the infant mortality rate just by those, and in fact many activists in third world countries do exactly that -- not much modern equipment required.

>This is so incredibly ignorant of history that it's unbelievable. You're aware there was a World War right before the 50's, right? And damn near the entire world was either coming out of centuries of suppressed economies under colonialism or trying to recover from being, you know, blown up? Might that have _anything_ to do with the success of American labor?

For one, there was also a World War right before the 20s, with the large colonial powers striving to recover from it. Still what happened to US economy in the 20s/30s was not exactly beneficial.

Second, the success of the American labor is not tied to the success of the American laborers. You can have one without the other. And for a century or more, since early 19th century, you did have -- tons of Americans working in medieval conditions (including harsh child labor, even in coal mines, and of course actual slavery), while the American industry was increasingly booming.

>What you're fundamentally saying is that we should implement welfare in the most inefficient way possible and then give it not to the poor, or the sick, or the needy; but to people in arbitrary industries (like dockworkers or taxi drivers) at arbitrary income levels.

What I'm fundamentally saying is that the "market knows better" is borderline religious fatalism. People shape and create their society, and people decide what it will be. Most people, if they are empowered to, or few people, if they can control legislation, education, markets etc.

Nobody gives money to the "poor, or the sick, or the needy" that are taken from "dockworkers or taxi drivers". What happens is that the "dockworkers or taxi drivers" are instead thrown into the ranks of the "poor or the needy".

And not only because their work gets obsolete or trivial by technology -- but because people controlling the market can force them to squeeze their margins.

Let me put it this way: it wasn't because growing cotton was cheap "in itself" or trivial that the cotton industry people thrived and prices were low. It was because they could push human beings to do it for substinence level compensation. Throu raw force first (slavery) and through "law" and taking advantate of their situation later then (Jim Crow etc).

Re: Dear Marc Andreessen

#145
post #11

I don't think pmarca is saying people are against robots per se, but against the efficiency-driven unemployment they see. I'm firmly on the side of pmarca and technology here -- I'd love to see virtually all crappy jobs today disappear, and we could find new and better things for those people to do (through the market, ideally, but I'd be open to Basic Income or other forms of wealth distribution if needed). I cannot…

> I'd love to see virtually all crappy jobs today disappear, and we could find new and better things for those people to do I agree with you, but I won't share your optimism until I start seeing way more ideas for what this future would look like that are way less hand-wavy than what I've seen so far. Vonnegut's "Player Piano" feels a lot more familiar than Star Trek's no-scarcity-or-need-to-work-but-everything-is-am…

This is an interesting vision. Not concrete in a lot of ways, but you a lot of the core ideas seem at least somewhat plausible: http://marshallbrain.com/manna1.htm

The first story seems more plausible than the second, but I hope the future looks more like the second.

Re: Dear Marc Andreessen

#146
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I cannot imagine retarding technology just to preserve existing jobs being a winning strategy which makes the world better. The problem is accelerating technology doesn't make the world automatically better either. It can also make it patently worse. E.g, someone presses the red button, and here's a nuclear war. Or some idiot gets access to viruses, and here's a bio attack that wipes out half the population. It's t…

It didn't hurt that in the 50s American industry was reaping the benefits of having blown their industrial competitors to smithereens just a few years earlier. I can offer all the benefits you want if the odds of my products' prices being undercut by a competitor are roughly zero.

>I can offer all the benefits you want if the odds of my products' prices being undercut by a competitor are roughly zero.

Sweden, Denmark and co seem to be able to offer "all the benefits you want" (and them some) even with lots of competitors being able to undercut them.

It's not like a country is like a shop in a commercial street with competing shops around it, and only the rules of competition hold.

There are also laws we make and consciously shaping on the environment we operate on. Like, say, tarrifs and subsidies.

And it's funny that those are taboo in America, when most of the success of the American economy is the result of a sort of "subsidy" of having a huge military presence and diplomatic pressure (not to mention the actual huge subsidies, to farmers, Detroit, Wall Street et co, shadowing any "socialist" country's GDP spending).

Re: Dear Marc Andreessen

#147
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So the fascists are those with "pro-market" bias? If we are allowed to use terminology like "left" willy nilly.

No, that wouldn't make any sense. Fascism and Socialism are on the same side of the statism fence. Both are anti-free markets. Both argue in favor of a large, powerful government with full control over the economy. The sole variance between them is how they implement and direct their statist controls, not whether they do. The left / right premise as far as Socialism and Fascism is concerned is a fraud.

>Fascism and Socialism are on the same side of the statism fence.

Quite the contrary. Hitler was more or less sponsored by the big businesses of his era, and he cattered greatly to their interests. The big exception was that there was also lots of arms industry spending by the state. Under the Nazis Germany underwent a huge privitization effort.

From Wikipedia:

Big business developed an increasingly close partnership with the Nazi government as it became increasingly organized. Business leaders supported the government's political and military goals, and in exchange, the government pursued economic policies that maximized the profits of its business allies. Nazi Germany transferred public ownership and public services into the private sector, while other Western capitalist countries strove for increased state ownership of industry.

Re: Dear Marc Andreessen

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Drivers want you to pay cash because everything else involves a technology company (CC processor, Uber, or both) taking a cut of the sale and cash doesn't. If a tech startup were resisting middlemen in this way, we'd probably call it common-sense business acumen. When it's a taxi driver, he's the scum of the earth? >do people really think that cabbies are aching to have apps between them and their customers that woul…

The key difference is that said startups use technology to cut out the middle man in a way that is transparent or even beneficial to the consumer. The cabbie, on the other hand, grumpily tries to pass the inconvenience onto the consumer.

The inconvenience of carrying $40 for cab fare is not worth anywhere near 2.9% of my income, yet if all of a cabbie's customers pay by credit, that's a minimum of 2.9% of his income excluding chargeback fraud.

Re: Dear Marc Andreessen

#149
post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I answered that same question here - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7907937 I think most people are not natural aristocrats. They are not going to be tinkering in their home laboratories, crafting programming languages or writing ebooks. I fear that most people will degenerate in every manner if not subjected to the discipline of work. They will end up drinking and playing video games all day long. Furthermore,…

The degeneration you fear sounds like a fine alternative to me. I'd rather deal with happy drunks than stressed out angry workers. Idleness doesn't bother me. The crime you allude to is usually committed by the young men who have no income in those situations and result to crime to obtain funds.

For reference, this is what I fear: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/10/world/europe/10britain.htm...

>In its four most deprived neighborhoods, some 30 percent of the residents of working age are considered “economically inactive,” neither holding jobs nor looking for them.

> "The housing projects in Wythenshawe represent an extreme pocket of social deprivation and alienation. But the problems here — a breakdown in families, an absence of respect for authority, the prevalence of drugs, drunkenness, truancy, vandalism and petty criminality — are common across Britain."

> Bringing home her groceries recently, Jane Leach, a 46-year-old caregiver for the elderly, described a typical weekend evening on the small grassy area that serves as a park of sorts between two rows of houses on her street. The youths start coming after 6, she said, dozens of them, boys and girls, mostly in their teens. They get drunk, take drugs, harass the residents, steal cars, urinate and defecate in the gardens, smash beer bottles on doorsteps, fight, pass out.

> When she tries to intervene, Ms. Leach said, the youths yell abuse at her. When she tells them to get off her car, they tell her there is nowhere else to sit. Recently, youths slashed every tire on 12 cars up and down the street, she said. When her partner was smashed in the face by a 14-year-old, Ms. Leach said, the police took 45 minutes to respond.

The article blames the stealing to some extent on poverty. But these people are not impoverished in the classical sense of the world. They have food, healthcare, and decent housing. I'm sure they have access to libraries where they could have a near infinite supply of books. Maybe they cannot afford vacations or fancy entertainment systems, but under any sort of basic income for not working scheme, people would face such limits in income.

And also, even if you could turn these people into less violent and vulgar idlers, as a first order moral principle, I do not want a world that looks like idiocracy or the ship in Wall-E.

Re: Dear Marc Andreessen

#150
post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, the value of min wage needs to be mapped on some topography of need. A $15/hr in SF or NYC is paltry due to the geographic localization of other prices--higher cost of living. Meanwhile, hiring 16 year in some middle-america towns probably shouldn't be dictated by "rich people's problems" imported from New York or California. All that being said, I also like the top-posters idea about adding a subsidy to basic…

If SF or NYC wants a higher wage, the city could augment the subsidy out of its own tax coffers. I am however, very much against the idea of taxing a machinist in Alabama to subsidize wages in NYC. I am also amenable to the idea of having the subsidy only be for those over 18, or people who are supporting families. But I do think it is reasonable to provide $15 jobs in middle America. Right now, young people feel a c…

Right now we tax workers in NYC to subsidize people on in Alabama. (NYC gets $2).
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