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I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

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Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#91

Post by Mz »

kbutler wrote: post #90
Mz wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regarding the first one: "changing your mind is one of the most difficult things we do" -- changing our mind is almost impossible; changing other people's is down right impossible. Eh, I did a lot of therapy. We can change our own minds. It takes work and it is hard but it is not "almost impossible." Perhaps the second is true. If so, that would explain a lot of my frustrations. I would like to think it is not true a…

How many therapists does it take to change a lightbulb? Just one, bit the lightbulb has to want to change.

It can, actually, be quite hard. But, yeah, if you want it bad enough, it can be done.

(Also: you haz a typo)

Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#92

Post by snowwrestler »

j2kun wrote: post #56
tokenadult wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who would you expect to do better than Congress in making those decisions, and through what process would they jointly make those decisions? (I'm genuinely curious, because I can think of three or four different ways to go in policy-making to respond to your concerns, but I think I'll understand your point better if I thoughtfully read your suggestion about different approaches to making decisions about those issues.…

Delegate to institutions populated with experts and actually listen to the advice of those experts.

That's what regulatory agencies are, like the FCC and SEC. Anyone think they're the answer?

Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#93

Post by im3w1l »

jessaustin wrote: post #75
im3w1l wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We may not be able to decide the right tax rate scientifically. But what we can do is determine very accurately the consequences of the choice. If we increase the tax rate x%, innovation will suffer y% but n less people will have to starve in the streets.

Even this is grossly overestimating the powers of current economic analysis. Many economists will give you this sort of ridiculous precision in advance, but in retrospect all they'll say is "we can't run a controlled experiment so you have to believe me that if we had done more of what I recommended, the results I promised would have occurred."

Fair enough. I should have said "what we could theorethically do" rather than "what we can do".

Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#95

Post by girvo »

jonnathanson wrote: post #77
Blahah wrote: post #31

Mostly insightful, but this bit: Those who criticize the behavior of "greedy Wall Street bankers" underestimate their tendency to do the same thing if offered an eight-figure salary. You have to be greedy to go into Wall Street banking in the first place. Most of us deliberately didn't become bankers because we aren't motivated by greed. This makes bankers fair game for criticism.

"You have to be greedy to go into Wall Street banking in the first place." Not necessarily. Our society places tremendous pressure on us to be materially successful. A lot of highly ambitious people in high school, and later in college, hear that Wall Street is the best way to become materially successful. So they go to Wall Street. Once they're hooked into the Wall Street lifestyle, mainlining money, they have a har…

You get what you incentivise... and that sort of money is one hell of an incentive, at least as far as society tells you.

Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#96

Post by simonebrunozzi »

bambax wrote: post #61
enjo wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is possible to change peoples minds, but the trick is that you have to convince everyone around them first. Social proof is the most powerful force in the universe. It's infuriating, but the research shows us time and time again that most people simply choose the position they perceive to be most popular. It is, incidentally, why the internet is so dangerous. It is easier now, more than ever, to surround yourself…

It is also why most meaningful change happens in generational cycles "People don't change their minds. They die, and are replaced by people with different opinions" -- Arturo Albergati, via Paul Graham ( http://www.paulgraham.com/quo.html ) (Strangely, when one searches for that quote, the first hit is Paul Graham's page; I'd like to know where exactly this was said, but couldn't find it after a quick investigation).

He learned it while studying in Florence I guess.

Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#97

Post by PhantomGremlin »

fspeech wrote: post #87
bambax wrote: post #20

Every one of those observations sounds extremely true to me. Regarding the first one: "changing your mind is one of the most difficult things we do" -- changing our mind is almost impossible; changing other people's is down right impossible. BUT - It's possible to influence people before they have made up their mind. - It's also possible to reframe / rename / re-position a subject, so that it becomes a new category a…

If you look at the author's profile you also realize that maybe he should reflect more on what he just wrote. I am referring to his ownership of tobacco company stocks (MO and PM). Is it really a good idea to own tobacco companies even if one is amoral about investing, esp. in light of what the author said about long term thinking?

One day in high school, perhaps in 1971, I was reading the financial section of the newspaper just before math class started.

My math teacher came in, saw that I was looking at the stock tables, and said something like: "I really like Philip Morris. I've made a lot of money in that stock over the years".

Now, check out http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MO&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Here are the splits in just that stock since 1974:

   2 * 2 * 2 * 4 * 3
That doesn't include the spinoff of PM and KRFT (I don't recall if shareholders participated in Miller spinoff). And there may have been more spinoffs that I can't even remember.

Now imagine how much money my math teacher's heirs would have today if they continued to hold his Philip Morris stock because they had "long term thinking".

You might be right. Maybe the long term is over in tobacco stocks. But the previous half century has sure made some people a lot of money selling products that have killed millions of other people.

Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#98

Post by PhantomGremlin »

arbuge wrote: post #85
greenyoda wrote: post #45

"I've learned that journalists' need to write far exceeds the number of things that need to be written. No writer can say to their boss, 'There's nothing important to write about today,' although it is the truth most days." These words should be inscribed at the top of HN's "submit" page.

This is perhaps doubly true for financial news and CNBC. ...make that most news now that I think about it. I can't remember the last time I saw an article on CNN that was actionable in my life in any way. Not sure why I bother to read the news most days, although it still feels like a useful thing to do.

I watch or read the news for "gestalt". Most individual articles are not "actionable", but the aggregate over weeks or months probably is.

Unfortunately, the article's first lesson is that you probably won't change your mind quickly enough to profit from anything you see on either CNBC or CNN.

Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#99

Post by mpyne »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #86
j2kun wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then why do I keep seeing Senate committee hearings where the Congress representatives are completely uninformed and challenge the people that come to speak to them? (about climate change, how the internet works, etc.)

Because it is a show?

It's exactly this.

Congress in front of cameras is far, far different than Congress behind closed doors.

The thing people sort of gloss over for politicians is the Cantor Effect: These guys normally actually need to get re-elected, or elected in higher offices. They have to appease their base, even if that means asking stupid questions they already know the answers to.

FDR had a saying which I'm probably misquoting, "I like your idea, it's the right thing to do. I want to do it. Now go make me do it." You make politicians do stuff by convincing their base of support.

Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#100

Post by TeMPOraL »

bambax wrote: post #20

Every one of those observations sounds extremely true to me. Regarding the first one: "changing your mind is one of the most difficult things we do" -- changing our mind is almost impossible; changing other people's is down right impossible. BUT - It's possible to influence people before they have made up their mind. - It's also possible to reframe / rename / re-position a subject, so that it becomes a new category a…

I found that changing your mind is heavily dependent on one's internal honesty. If you care more about the truth than about your own opinions, if you avoid being attached to your own beliefs, then it's actually not that hard to change your mind after encountering new evidence.

Actually, that's one of the main reason I frequent HN - in the comments I quite often encounter knowledgable people arguing for beliefs different than mine. By reading and sometimes participating in discussions here I get to constantly re-evaluate the reasons for what I believe and, occasionally, to change my mind.

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