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I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

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Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#61

Post by bambax »

enjo wrote: post #58
bambax wrote: post #20

Every one of those observations sounds extremely true to me. Regarding the first one: "changing your mind is one of the most difficult things we do" -- changing our mind is almost impossible; changing other people's is down right impossible. BUT - It's possible to influence people before they have made up their mind. - It's also possible to reframe / rename / re-position a subject, so that it becomes a new category a…

It is possible to change peoples minds, but the trick is that you have to convince everyone around them first. Social proof is the most powerful force in the universe. It's infuriating, but the research shows us time and time again that most people simply choose the position they perceive to be most popular. It is, incidentally, why the internet is so dangerous. It is easier now, more than ever, to surround yourself…

It is also why most meaningful change happens in generational cycles

"People don't change their minds. They die, and are replaced by people with different opinions"

-- Arturo Albergati, via Paul Graham (http://www.paulgraham.com/quo.html)

(Strangely, when one searches for that quote, the first hit is Paul Graham's page; I'd like to know where exactly this was said, but couldn't find it after a quick investigation).

Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#62

Post by AndrewKemendo »

j2kun wrote: post #56
tokenadult wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who would you expect to do better than Congress in making those decisions, and through what process would they jointly make those decisions? (I'm genuinely curious, because I can think of three or four different ways to go in policy-making to respond to your concerns, but I think I'll understand your point better if I thoughtfully read your suggestion about different approaches to making decisions about those issues.…

Delegate to institutions populated with experts and actually listen to the advice of those experts.

Do you mean that congress and the executive branch should delegate? If so they largely do in the form of think tanks, policy centers and research groups like RAND. I know that there are a lot of big decisions that came from those organizations, one of the best examples of this is Team B [1]

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Team_B

Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#64

Post by VintageCool »

bambax wrote: post #61
enjo wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is possible to change peoples minds, but the trick is that you have to convince everyone around them first. Social proof is the most powerful force in the universe. It's infuriating, but the research shows us time and time again that most people simply choose the position they perceive to be most popular. It is, incidentally, why the internet is so dangerous. It is easier now, more than ever, to surround yourself…

It is also why most meaningful change happens in generational cycles "People don't change their minds. They die, and are replaced by people with different opinions" -- Arturo Albergati, via Paul Graham ( http://www.paulgraham.com/quo.html ) (Strangely, when one searches for that quote, the first hit is Paul Graham's page; I'd like to know where exactly this was said, but couldn't find it after a quick investigation).

That sounds similar to the Max Planck quote that "science progresses one funeral at a time".

Actually, that might be paraphrased, the quote which seems more authentic according to Google is this:

"A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it"

Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#65

Post by ianstallings »

ahoge wrote: post #11

> I've learned that there's a strong correlation between knowledge and humility. It's the Dunning–Kruger effect: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

I tend to agree with this but I also think that a knowledgeable person should be eager to stand his or her ground and probably will on subjects that matter dearly to them. For instance you might be able to convince a scientist of a philosophical viewpoint, but they might never budge from their stance on a scientific view point and in turn adamantly defend its idea with an almost righteous conviction (e.g. Richard Dawkins).

But I guess we should be truly happy about this effect. If the smart amongst us were brow beating us all constantly it would be very painful indeed. I know I'd be a ripe target.

Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#66

Post by sumedh »

bushido wrote: post #32

This is extremely insightful and applies to a lot of industries: I've learned that we can't tell the difference between luck and skill. Out of millions of investors, a few will be phenomenally successful due to luck alone, yet no one is willing to admit they are one of the lucky ones. I recall reading this statement written in different words in a few articles and essays from PG and others.

> I've learned that we can't tell the difference between luck and skill.

You should read what Warren Buffett has to say on this topic

http://www4.gsb.columbia.edu/null?&exclusive=filemgr.downloa...

Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#67

Post by im3w1l »

pcrh wrote: post #34
autokad wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

what decisions about science would you be referring to?

A lot of legislation cannot be approach scientifically, e.g. the right taxes rates, etc. Other legislation can be very scientific, e.g. is marijuana dangerous?

We may not be able to decide the right tax rate scientifically. But what we can do is determine very accurately the consequences of the choice. If we increase the tax rate x%, innovation will suffer y% but n less people will have to starve in the streets.

Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#68

Post by neilk »

nlh wrote: post #6

> I've learned that how you reacted to past bubbles is a good indication of how you'll act to future ones. The same people buying dot-com stocks in 1999 were buying Miami condos in 2006 and gold in 2011. There was a saying that emerged in the first .com boom -- "You know we're in trouble when the UPS guy is giving you Internet stock tips." Maybe we should ask the UPS guy every few months what he's excited about inves…

You know we're in trouble when anyone is giving you stock tips. There is zero evidence that brokers and analysts (in general) can pick stocks better than UPS drivers. Except that they are in a position to profit from others' greed and fear.

I'll agree that the "UPS guy" metric is useful, but only because it shows when a certain kind of madness has infected the rest of society. When even people who aren't paid to promulgate nonsense are blinded by their enthusiasm.

Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#69

Post by j2kun »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #62
j2kun wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Delegate to institutions populated with experts and actually listen to the advice of those experts.

Do you mean that congress and the executive branch should delegate? If so they largely do in the form of think tanks, policy centers and research groups like RAND. I know that there are a lot of big decisions that came from those organizations, one of the best examples of this is Team B [1] [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Team_B

Then why do I keep seeing Senate committee hearings where the Congress representatives are completely uninformed and challenge the people that come to speak to them? (about climate change, how the internet works, etc.)

Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#70

Post by A_COMPUTER »

j2kun wrote: post #56
tokenadult wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who would you expect to do better than Congress in making those decisions, and through what process would they jointly make those decisions? (I'm genuinely curious, because I can think of three or four different ways to go in policy-making to respond to your concerns, but I think I'll understand your point better if I thoughtfully read your suggestion about different approaches to making decisions about those issues.…

Delegate to institutions populated with experts and actually listen to the advice of those experts.

I believe both modern China and fascist Italy did something like this, with a "stakeholder" model (corporatism, social and commercial groups of interest to government have a seat at the table) of governance. I'm not slyly trying to bash the idea through negative connotations, but if it's similar I wonder if we could learn from them. I can think of a few downsides, but there are upsides too.
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