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I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

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Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#51

Post by snowwrestler »

j2kun wrote: post #4

> I've learned that there's a strong correlation between knowledge and humility. People who spend 10 minutes on Google studying monetary policy think they have it all figured out, while people with Ph.D.s and decades of experience throw up their hands in frustration. The more you study economics, the more you realize how little we know about it. This is the problem with Congress making decisions about science, the in…

This would be true if Congress didn't listen to the various experts on any given subject, but they do. They are drowning in expert opinions.

Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#52

Post by WalterBright »

bushido wrote: post #32

This is extremely insightful and applies to a lot of industries: I've learned that we can't tell the difference between luck and skill. Out of millions of investors, a few will be phenomenally successful due to luck alone, yet no one is willing to admit they are one of the lucky ones. I recall reading this statement written in different words in a few articles and essays from PG and others.

One reasonable test is if a person consistently is "lucky", then it is more likely to be skill.

Steve Jobs, for example, made three fortunes. I suspect it is skill.

Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#53

Post by johnohara »

wwwwwwwwww wrote: post #5

If you enjoy reading and absorbing this kind of knowledge, I suggest reading Meditations by Marcus Aurelius. It's a book of personal thoughts/writings/observations that Aurelius wrote while he was emperor of Rome. It's absolutely stunning how much knowledge from back then is still applicable in the modern world. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meditations

+3

Been a while since I spent time with his quotations. Thank you.

Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#55

Post by adventured »

"I've learned that people's expectations grow faster than their wealth. The country is richer than it's ever been. I don't think it's as happy as it's ever been."

Greater than half the country did not participate in the supposed recovery. Check out the plunge over five years in the labor force, the unemployment rate among teenagers, blacks, hispanics, the use of food stamps, the use of ss disability, etc. Real wages haven't moved in 40 years. It's little wonder it's not an overly happy country, most people have not participated in the Fed's asset inflation party. The rich are richer than they've ever been, the poor are the poorest they've arguably been since the great depression. Not arguing the why's mind you, but there is a very good reason the country doesn't seem very happy.

Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#56

Post by j2kun »

tokenadult wrote: post #26
j2kun wrote: post #4

> I've learned that there's a strong correlation between knowledge and humility. People who spend 10 minutes on Google studying monetary policy think they have it all figured out, while people with Ph.D.s and decades of experience throw up their hands in frustration. The more you study economics, the more you realize how little we know about it. This is the problem with Congress making decisions about science, the in…

Who would you expect to do better than Congress in making those decisions, and through what process would they jointly make those decisions? (I'm genuinely curious, because I can think of three or four different ways to go in policy-making to respond to your concerns, but I think I'll understand your point better if I thoughtfully read your suggestion about different approaches to making decisions about those issues.…

Delegate to institutions populated with experts and actually listen to the advice of those experts.

Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#58

Post by enjo »

bambax wrote: post #20

Every one of those observations sounds extremely true to me. Regarding the first one: "changing your mind is one of the most difficult things we do" -- changing our mind is almost impossible; changing other people's is down right impossible. BUT - It's possible to influence people before they have made up their mind. - It's also possible to reframe / rename / re-position a subject, so that it becomes a new category a…

It is possible to change peoples minds, but the trick is that you have to convince everyone around them first. Social proof is the most powerful force in the universe. It's infuriating, but the research shows us time and time again that most people simply choose the position they perceive to be most popular.

It is, incidentally, why the internet is so dangerous. It is easier now, more than ever, to surround yourself with people who confirm your beliefs ALL OF THE TIME. If we're going to make decisions socially, that's a pretty worrying state of affairs.

It is also why most meaningful change happens in generational cycles. At least that is how it seems to me.

Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#59

Post by Zigurd »

FigBug wrote: post #8
nlh wrote: post #6

> I've learned that how you reacted to past bubbles is a good indication of how you'll act to future ones. The same people buying dot-com stocks in 1999 were buying Miami condos in 2006 and gold in 2011. There was a saying that emerged in the first .com boom -- "You know we're in trouble when the UPS guy is giving you Internet stock tips." Maybe we should ask the UPS guy every few months what he's excited about inves…

And now they are buying bitcoin.

Be careful of glibness.

I knew the Web was going to be big when people who could not be troubled to learn what a paragraph style is in Word were hanging on my every word, taking notes, and buying books about how to install a 3rd party IP stack in Windows.

There's a difference between the UPS guy having an opinion about something and going out of his way to learn about something with a fairly steep learning curve.

Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#60

Post by bushido »

WalterBright wrote: post #52
bushido wrote: post #32

This is extremely insightful and applies to a lot of industries: I've learned that we can't tell the difference between luck and skill. Out of millions of investors, a few will be phenomenally successful due to luck alone, yet no one is willing to admit they are one of the lucky ones. I recall reading this statement written in different words in a few articles and essays from PG and others.

One reasonable test is if a person consistently is "lucky", then it is more likely to be skill. Steve Jobs, for example, made three fortunes. I suspect it is skill.

There are always exceptional exceptions :)
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