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I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

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Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#21

Post by NhanH »

FigBug wrote: post #8
nlh wrote: post #6

> I've learned that how you reacted to past bubbles is a good indication of how you'll act to future ones. The same people buying dot-com stocks in 1999 were buying Miami condos in 2006 and gold in 2011. There was a saying that emerged in the first .com boom -- "You know we're in trouble when the UPS guy is giving you Internet stock tips." Maybe we should ask the UPS guy every few months what he's excited about inves…

And now they are buying bitcoin.

Without commenting on the success rate of bitcoin itself, the money being put in bitcoin is still an order of magnitude smaller than the bubbles mentioned in GP. The USP guy, more likely than not still doesn't know about bitcoin.

Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#22

Post by ahoge »

enraged_camel wrote: post #15
ahoge wrote: post #11

> I've learned that there's a strong correlation between knowledge and humility. It's the Dunning–Kruger effect: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

No, I disagree. There's a big difference between humility and lack of self-confidence.

That's just the most extreme form. As with most things, it's a gradient.

If you know that there are things you don't know, you'll probably be more humble. If you feel overwhelmed, because there doesn't seem to be an end in sight, it might affect your confidence.

Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#23

Post by roymurdock »

I disagree with this one: I've learned that Winston Churchill was right when he said, "You can always count on Americans to do the right thing -- after they've tried everything else." Congress is a basket case 99% of the time, but when things are truly at the precipice it gets things done.

The "right" thing is pretty subjective, and I would argue that if we were doing the "right" things, we could have avoided a partial government shutdown last year as Congress struggled through the debt issue. Speaks to the author's comment about short-term thinking:

I've learned that short-term thinking is at the root of most of our problems, whether it's in business, politics, investing, or work.

It's not a good sign that we are allowing ourselves to reach moments of crisis in which we are forced to make the "right" decision. What if that decision comes down to defaulting on our debt and wronging the rest of the world?

Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#24

Post by d0mine »

roymurdock wrote: post #23

I disagree with this one: I've learned that Winston Churchill was right when he said, "You can always count on Americans to do the right thing -- after they've tried everything else." Congress is a basket case 99% of the time, but when things are truly at the precipice it gets things done. The "right" thing is pretty subjective, and I would argue that if we were doing the "right" things, we could have avoided a parti…

> I've learned that short-term thinking is at the root of most of our problems

Greedy (aka "short-term thinking") algorithms provide optimal solutions for many (but not all (obviously)) problems.

Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#25

Post by bushido »

nlh wrote: post #6

> I've learned that how you reacted to past bubbles is a good indication of how you'll act to future ones. The same people buying dot-com stocks in 1999 were buying Miami condos in 2006 and gold in 2011. There was a saying that emerged in the first .com boom -- "You know we're in trouble when the UPS guy is giving you Internet stock tips." Maybe we should ask the UPS guy every few months what he's excited about inves…

Contrarian indicators. It's rarely the UPS guy, more likely it's an uncle/relative/a friend.

The key to acting opposite to the behavior of contrarian indicator requires knowing all their other behavior patterns.

The original saying dates back to the great depression and was likely more accurate than the UPS guys generalization. If I recall correctly I first read about it in a book called Zurich Axioms.

Looked it up found the story somewhere else. http://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive...

Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#26

Post by tokenadult »

j2kun wrote: post #4

> I've learned that there's a strong correlation between knowledge and humility. People who spend 10 minutes on Google studying monetary policy think they have it all figured out, while people with Ph.D.s and decades of experience throw up their hands in frustration. The more you study economics, the more you realize how little we know about it. This is the problem with Congress making decisions about science, the in…

Who would you expect to do better than Congress in making those decisions, and through what process would they jointly make those decisions? (I'm genuinely curious, because I can think of three or four different ways to go in policy-making to respond to your concerns, but I think I'll understand your point better if I thoughtfully read your suggestion about different approaches to making decisions about those issues.)

Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#27

Post by antidaily »

roymurdock wrote: post #23

I disagree with this one: I've learned that Winston Churchill was right when he said, "You can always count on Americans to do the right thing -- after they've tried everything else." Congress is a basket case 99% of the time, but when things are truly at the precipice it gets things done. The "right" thing is pretty subjective, and I would argue that if we were doing the "right" things, we could have avoided a parti…

"Truly at the precipice" is subjective there.

Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#28

Post by dllthomas »

nlh wrote: post #6

> I've learned that how you reacted to past bubbles is a good indication of how you'll act to future ones. The same people buying dot-com stocks in 1999 were buying Miami condos in 2006 and gold in 2011. There was a saying that emerged in the first .com boom -- "You know we're in trouble when the UPS guy is giving you Internet stock tips." Maybe we should ask the UPS guy every few months what he's excited about inves…

That's a paraphrase of a much older story, told about Joseph Kennedy, Sr. and a shoe-shine boy, ahead of the '29 crash.

Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are

#30

Post by bushido »

NhanH wrote: post #21
FigBug wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And now they are buying bitcoin.

Without commenting on the success rate of bitcoin itself, the money being put in bitcoin is still an order of magnitude smaller than the bubbles mentioned in GP. The USP guy, more likely than not still doesn't know about bitcoin.

> an order of magnitude smaller than the bubbles mentioned

The thing about money and markets is it all relative(%).

Whenever talking on these topics people revert to absolute($) comparisons, this is where most analysis breaks.

I am not arguing or commenting on bitcoin success, just that your mention of "order of magnitude" sounds like an absolute value.

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