> I've learned that there's a strong correlation between knowledge and humility.
It's the Dunning–Kruger effect:
I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are
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Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are
#12> I've learned that people are twice as biased as they think they are, which is precisely why biases are dangerous.
This is a bit backwards. It's more like an inverse relationship - if you don't think you have any biases you are likely to be the most biased. It's probably a factor of 2 for those who admit a level of bias, and a much greater factor for those who don't admit bias.
Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are
#13> I've learned that there's a strong correlation between knowledge and humility. People who spend 10 minutes on Google studying monetary policy think they have it all figured out, while people with Ph.D.s and decades of experience throw up their hands in frustration. The more you study economics, the more you realize how little we know about it. This is the problem with Congress making decisions about science, the in…
what decisions about science would you be referring to?
Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are
#14Great lessons, for investors, business folk, developers, and actors.
Or rather, for everyone, at least those that are not economics related. My favourite one: "I've learned that strong political beliefs in either direction limit your ability to make rational decisions more than almost anything else." Actually you can just leave the 'political' away and it only becomes more general truth.
Yeah, pg wrote an essay about this and it's one of my favorites.
Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are
#15> I've learned that there's a strong correlation between knowledge and humility. It's the Dunning–Kruger effect: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
No, I disagree. There's a big difference between humility and lack of self-confidence.
Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are
#16> I've learned that how you reacted to past bubbles is a good indication of how you'll act to future ones. The same people buying dot-com stocks in 1999 were buying Miami condos in 2006 and gold in 2011. There was a saying that emerged in the first .com boom -- "You know we're in trouble when the UPS guy is giving you Internet stock tips." Maybe we should ask the UPS guy every few months what he's excited about inves…
There's a saying in the oilfield (many booms and busts over generations):
'when the barber is getting into the oilfield, it's time to get out'
Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are
#17I've always been a big fan of Motley Fool, particularly their podcasts, and I think it's for the same reason I like this article: their contributors seem to value honesty, to point of self-deprecation, over the desire to appear superior.
Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are
#18Sadly, none of this would make any sense if I had not already learned it the hard way.
I find it funnier than sad. But, I agree with you completely.
Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are
#19> I've learned that there's a strong correlation between knowledge and humility. People who spend 10 minutes on Google studying monetary policy think they have it all figured out, while people with Ph.D.s and decades of experience throw up their hands in frustration. The more you study economics, the more you realize how little we know about it. This is the problem with Congress making decisions about science, the in…
what decisions about science would you be referring to?
climate change?
Re: I’m Just Now Realizing How Stupid We Are
#20Every one of those observations sounds extremely true to me.
Regarding the first one: "changing your mind is one of the most difficult things we do" -- changing our mind is almost impossible; changing other people's is down right impossible.
BUT
- It's possible to influence people before they have made up their mind.
- It's also possible to reframe / rename / re-position a subject, so that it becomes a new category about which people don't already have an opinion. Politicians do it all the time (most people are opposed to torture, but "enhanced interrogation techniques" sound both useful and reasonable, for example). Marketers also do it, sometimes, but they should do it more.
On this last topic, this book is absolutely fantastic:
http://www.amazon.com/Positioning-The-Battle-Your-Mind/dp/00...
It explains why brand extension is almost always a bad idea ("Google Play", OMG!!!!), and why "7Up: the uncola" is genius.