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Anti-Tesla sentiment and the death of optimism

cjohnson.io

191–200 of 212 posts

Re: Anti-Tesla sentiment and the death of optimism

#191
post #170

Patent discussion aside, I just want to point out that battery powered cars are NOT the solution to global warming, at least not at the current state of technology. Aside from all the environmental damage involved in producing the lithium cells them selves, you have to also consider that to charge those cells we are still burning cola and then transmitting that power over an incredibly inefficient, almost 100 year ol…

All else being equal, isn't a large fossil fuel power plant 2x more efficient than an ICE, simply from economies of scale from producing tons of power in one central place?

Re: Anti-Tesla sentiment and the death of optimism

#192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really don't think that Elon selling his paypal stake to Ebay is his primary success story. SpaceX and Tesla are much bigger stories, and they are an ongoing affair. The only reason you can make the statement you made is because you added 'historical', but what use is that if it is only used to eliminate the present which is by far the more interesting portion.

"historical success story". I meant one that has played out.

Elons success story will play out when he's dead. Until then it does not look like he will stop. The only reason why PayPal is no longer a concern of his and which allows us to call it 'history' is because as far as he was concerned it brought what it could so it was time to move on. And move on he did.

The only two ways the others can 'play out' is by failing or succeeding. For SpaceX to succeed means a totally different thing to Elon musk than to you or I, for him success is not to make money but to put foot on Mars. Tesla is a sideshow (but an important one at that), with much more impact than PayPal or Ebay. If Tesla 'succeeds' that will likely mean that it will own a substantial portion of the car market at some point (imagine a budget tesla within 5 to 10 years), if it fails the only thing that I can imagine would be a total shut-down or being bought out to stop it from folding.

Effectively the whole patent thing is a very interesting approach to this problem, it says 'we will not be bought at any point'.

I'm not one of the 'gushing fanboys', I just look on in total amazement at what one guy with sufficient drive can accomplish and I'm just as amazed at how many people are ready to trip him up.

The least the naysayers could do is shut up and wait it out, in the meantime, Musk is going places and PayPal appears to have been (with our present knowledge) but a small step on the way. One thing is already fairly sure at this point, Elon Musk's name will be one that will very likely be part of the history books, whether as business tycoon, first man to set foot on Mars (or die on Mars) or as the man who tried to change the world for the better but failed remains to be seen. Regardless, it will likely be in a very positive light, all creativity with no destruction is a worthwhile attitude.

Re: Anti-Tesla sentiment and the death of optimism

#193
post #170

Patent discussion aside, I just want to point out that battery powered cars are NOT the solution to global warming, at least not at the current state of technology. Aside from all the environmental damage involved in producing the lithium cells them selves, you have to also consider that to charge those cells we are still burning cola and then transmitting that power over an incredibly inefficient, almost 100 year ol…

This post highlights some persistent myths surrounding electric vehicles:

1) Even if you're using electricity derived 100% from burning coal, you're still causing less pollution than most gas-powered cars. This is because power plants are hugely, massively more efficient than internal combustion engines, and because it's much easier to filter pollution out of one big smokestack than thousands of small ones. Furthermore, even just refining oil into gasoline takes almost as much electricity as you'd need to power an EV directly. In the worst-case 100% coal scenario, certain fuel-efficient vehicles might be better than an EV in terms of carbon emissions, but in most real-world cases any EV is more environmentally friendly than any gasoline vehicle. This gap will only continue to widen as renewables continue to replace fossil fuel generation.

2) The production of lithium ion batteries doesn't cause significant environmental damage beyond what would otherwise go into building a gasoline car. There is some environmental damage caused by mining the required metals, but not nearly as much as the environmental damage caused by drilling for oil and refining it into gasoline. None of the materials involved are particularly exotic or toxic, and they are all easily recyclable, so the long-term damage here is pretty limited. Tesla uses batteries made of lithium, aluminum, carbon, and nickel. Older battery tech used toxic metals like cadmium or lead, and were somewhat less easy to recycle, but this is not the case with modern lithium cells.

Driving your current car for longer might be better than buying a brand new EV, assuming your current car is really efficient, and assuming you don't live somewhere that already uses a lot of renewables for generation, and assuming you don't slap some solar panels on your house (which many EV owners already do). But, driving an old F150 for 300k miles is definitely, unequivocally worse than buying a new Tesla. It would also cost you nearly as much money, when you factor in the fuel costs.

And, even then, you're assuming that your options are "trash my current car and buy an EV" or "keep driving my current car". You could also, say, sell your current car to someone else and put the proceeds toward buying an EV.

Re: Anti-Tesla sentiment and the death of optimism

#194
post #67

I enjoyed your post. I have a couple of thoughts / suggestions for you. I got the impression that the underlying motivation for writing the post, and tactic you used for justifying your positions was largely in response to what I would consider the overly myopic hacker news user base. That is, disproportionately white, male, curmudgeoney programmers. I sympathize with your frustration, but urge you not to let their w…

I don't want to start a east coast vs. west coast feud over how rich boys spend their money, but there's a difference. I can spot an east coast transplant, even after they lose the accent--and they think, and spend their money differently too. There are always exceptions, but in my world East coast men are more competitive, less empathetic, and have taken more money out of my pocket than west coast men. Yes--I'm ster…

I grew up in the DC area and lived there for 8 years after college. Moved to SF (now Oakland) 6.5 years ago.

I'm not sure it's truly accurate, but the east coast, DC and NYC in particular, feel like a dog-eat-dog, I'll do anything to get ahead, kind of place while the bay area feels like a much more friendly competitive environment.

Whatever the cause, there is a very real difference in attitude between the two coasts.

Re: Anti-Tesla sentiment and the death of optimism

#195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you want to reduce CO2 emissions, you should start by becoming a vegan. I'm going to regret this, I have no doubt. Vegan != no carbon footprint. In fact, I would imagine that when compared to a typical vegetarian diet, it is less carbon efficient. Isolation from animal (by)products means that food bound for vegans typically requires specialized handling and processing. Loss of efficiency gained from the economie…

>Vegan != no carbon footprint. Well, no sane person has claimed that. >In fact, I would imagine that when compared to a typical vegetarian diet, it is less carbon efficient. Your imagination is not consistent with reality/studies. http://shrinkthatfootprint.com/food-carbon-footprint-diet >Isolation from animal (by)products means that food bound for vegans typically requires specialized handling and processing. The av…

"The average vegan food is a lot more efficient than any animal product. An animal is just a biological machien which converts plant matter to animal products. You could take out the inefficient converter and just eat the plant directly. For example, 99% of soy in the United States is eaten by animals."

Not that this destroys your thesis, but some animals happily eat things humans won't. A pig fed leftovers is going to be more efficient than sending those leftovers to landfill. People don't eat much grass. &c. This is, of course, mostly irrelevant to how we actually feed ourselves in the developed world (where, for instance, pasture would serve other uses).

Re: Anti-Tesla sentiment and the death of optimism

#196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you need to append "for software or business methods" liberally. For products where development costs dwarf manufacturing costs, patents provide the incentive to do stuff. Would anyone invest a few billion into a drug if anyone with access to a few million bucks could go manufacture it?

I've always enjoyed "Against Intellectual Monopoly" (read free online here: http://levine.sscnet.ucla.edu/general/intellectual/against.h... ), which has a chapter ( http://levine.sscnet.ucla.edu/papers/ip.ch.9.m1004.pdf ) that specifically addresses this.

I would be wary of taking that book at its word. The authors have an agenda and they are not afraid to twist historical facts to suit their narrative. I mean, their very first chapter begins with a lie which perpetuates the myth that Watt's patent retarded steam development [1].

When the authors of [1] called out Boldrin and Levine on this, the latter responded by fabricating new myths rather than admit that the truth undermined their narrative [2].

The very chapter you cite itself has such inaccuracies. I did not track down all the stuff they cite, but I did find an instance of mischaracterizing references to suit their view points. For instance, when they discuss the German dyestuff industry, they cite a study by Murmann to support their narrative that Germany dominated in that industry due to the lack of patents. But if you look at the actual study itself, Murmann paints (heh) a much more nuanced picture. German dominance in that industry was fueled by close ties with academic research, and later by R&D labs encouraged by, of all things, the newly introduced patent laws:

>When in 1877 German patent law protected dye innovations, a few German firms such as Hoechst, BASF, and AGFA saw the advantage of hiring organic chemists whose sole task was to synthesize new dyes. After these research chemists turned out economically successful dyes, firms hired more and more chemists and pioneered an entirely new corporate function, formally organized research. The birth of corporate research and development (R&D), which today is a standard activity in high-tech industries ... can be traced to the German synthetic dye firms in 1880s. By the 1890s the vast majority of dyes were being discovered in the R&D laboratories of Bayer, Hoechst, and BASF.

> Whereas in the early days of the industry a firm could exist by copying dyes invented somewhere else, patent laws made the systematic application of science within the boundaries of the firm a critical dimension of remaining a leader in the industry.

And elsewhere:

> The most important institution in the early success of the German dye industry was the university system, but patent laws were a second key factor that allowed the German firms to capture a dominant position.

With that many assertions in the study that refute their view, they cherry-pick a few comments and actually cite the study as one that supports their view.

With so many mischaracterizations in there, I find it hard to take anything else they say in that book at their word.

1. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1589712

2. http://econpapers.repec.org/article/bpjrlecon/v_3a5_3ay_3a20...

3. Murmann JP, 2003, "Knowledge and Competitive Advantage – The Coevolution of Firms, Technologies and National Institutions." - http://catdir.loc.gov/catdir/samples/cam041/2003043048.pdf

Re: Anti-Tesla sentiment and the death of optimism

#197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you need to append "for software or business methods" liberally. For products where development costs dwarf manufacturing costs, patents provide the incentive to do stuff. Would anyone invest a few billion into a drug if anyone with access to a few million bucks could go manufacture it?

software is a product where development costs (designing the product, writing the code) dwarf manufacturing cost (compiling the code, deploying the executables).

A developed product is protected by copyright, not a patent. Software patents are for ideas, and the vaguer, the more valuable. Developing an idea like one-click ordering takes virtually no added time; all the better if you can wait for someone else to do the development and then collect the reward.

Re: Anti-Tesla sentiment and the death of optimism

#198

The only hope is cultural change. The only hope is cultural trust , and the only way to achieve that is to allow like-minded individuals to separate themselves into autonomous political units. This is dangerous thinking Chris, if you start following these thoughts through to the end, rather than spinning off into happy-clappy "change the world's heart" wishing...

Or you could just learn to live with people who aren't exactly like you. You know, like everyone on the planet except for wealthy and reactionary enclaves of the United States.

Everyone?

http://www.thoughtleader.co.za/oneyoungworld/2014/06/05/sout...

Re: Anti-Tesla sentiment and the death of optimism

#199
post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Where I'd imagine that we differ is that I think that the pendulum has swung way too far in the direction of the State. With a debt that is now bigger than our GDP and the last hundred years of mostly one-way growth of government and its agencies, the Government is a huge black hole for money that encourages, institutionalizes, and legalizes ever-increasing degrees of corruption. Also, I don't think there really is…

the more people agitate about reducing the scope of government (or, on the other side, reducing the influence of big banks) the better The problem isn't that people are agitating about the wrong issues. The problem is that voters are suckers. They believe the leaders of their political parties that tell them that they're going to reduce the size of government or restrict the power of banks. Then when Republicans and…

The Koch brothers remark was not meant to apply to you personally, but this is the third time you've mentioned it so I reckon you considered it a personal attack. It wasn't meant as one.

Re: Anti-Tesla sentiment and the death of optimism

#200
post #185
post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please note that the post gives an extremely bad impression. First of all, pareto efficiency and nash equilibria exist both in capitalism and other economic systems. And the obvious alternative economic system : centrally planned economies, are very much nash equilibria (if they are stable at all). But the second impression he gives is also very wrong. By definition, everyone is a "selfish dickhead" both in Nash equi…

I don't agree that the free market ever produces a pareto-efficient solution. If all market participants act selfishly in an unconstrained market you get a nash equilibrium because there are two avoidable downsides which the fully free market will naturally produce: the tragedy of the commons, and the concentration of resources. The tragedy of the commons can only be avoided by changing the rules of the market throug…

Note that "perfect" capitalism, for obvious reasons (amongst others the ones you mention) does not have a commons. And yes, there are "natural" commons, like the athmosphere, but those are unsolved problems.

> The concentration of resources is typically avoided through wealth redistribution, another mechanism of mandatory altruism.

Again if this works, it's not altruism for the same reason that Ford's actions weren't altruistic. They were a business investment that would force others to make the same investment, and he was gambling that people would invest it in buying his cars. He was right. This is the same thing, only at a country level.

That's assuming it works. While the political advantages of directly promising large amounts of people money are undeniable when it comes right down to it, people work because they're forced to work to an extent. That, sadly, means you can't take that away. You can probably safely take it away for a while, even a generation I think. But ...

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