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For Sale: 29,656.51306529 Bitcoins

usmarshals.gov

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Re: For Sale: 29,656.51306529 Bitcoins

#81

Isn't this a bit presumptuous? Ross William Ulbricht hasn't yet been convicted of anything. I know that they aren't selling his personal bitcoins, but in the (highly unlikely) event that he is found innocent, wouldn't that mean that the Silk Road assets need to be returned to him? How then can they sell them now?

It is presumptuous, but that is how civil forfeiture works. Its atrocious. Take a look at this well written article by the New Yorker Taken: The Use and Abuse of Civil Forfeiture http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2013/08/12/130812fa_fact_...

That is indeed blood boiling. I am now upset after reading this...

Re: For Sale: 29,656.51306529 Bitcoins

#82
post #63
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the supply hasn't increased. These bitcoins existed prior to the offer of sale. The only thing that increased was the free float.

That counts as supply. Silver in the earth also exists prior to sale, but it only counts when you actually sell it.

By this logic, withdrawing money from the ATM increases money supply... Also, the expected amount of silver in the ground is factored into the current price of silver. It's really only when new deposits are discovered that there is an impact to the price. Actually pulling known silver deposits out of the ground has a negligible effect on the price.

Re: For Sale: 29,656.51306529 Bitcoins

#83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's an interesting understanding of how currency works. There is no currency connected to bitcoin. There is an exchange rate. Someone out there willing to give you X dollars for Y bitcoins. (Consider the concept of X dollars for Y barrels of gas, or Z oz of gold). Money is used multiple times. The dollar you spend at the store is then split up and spent again, and again, and again. So the value of the whole curren…

The increased [bit-]money supply doesn't explain the observed price drop - it would explain a price drop, but much, much smaller than this one; those 30k bitcoins is a rather tiny part of the whole bitcoins in circulation; so obviously some other reasons dominate this particular price change. If US treasury prints a billion dollars, then that doesn't trigger a 10% drop in value of a US dollar - it's a comparably tiny…

Yes, but market fluctuations always shoot above and below 'rationalizable valuations'.

A few reasons why your analogy is flawed. First, M0 (which is one of the more conservative definition of money, is about 4 trillion, so the value loss from a billion dollars is not going to be anywhere near 10% to start off with). Secondly, by printing money you're again only affecting M0, but there are a lot of debt-based instruments that are probably better characterizations of "total money", but since they are debt-based it creates some level of 'springiness' to the total money supply.

Finally, it's not clear to me what you mean by 'functioning properly'. Even if a small change triggers a bigger effect (it will, these things are categorized by cascading effects) - Is the market coordinating individual values with prices? Probably, it is: it's just that the individuals' value systems have gone a bit out of whack in a spate of mania. But who are we to judge if people get a little silly from time to time?

Re: For Sale: 29,656.51306529 Bitcoins

#84

Isn't this a bit presumptuous? Ross William Ulbricht hasn't yet been convicted of anything. I know that they aren't selling his personal bitcoins, but in the (highly unlikely) event that he is found innocent, wouldn't that mean that the Silk Road assets need to be returned to him? How then can they sell them now?

I thought the same thing.

However, if he is found not guilty, then the presumption is that he was not involved and therefore would not be the "rightful owner" of the seized property anyway.

Re: For Sale: 29,656.51306529 Bitcoins

#85
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_and_demand Increasing supply always reduces the market price.

But the supply hasn't increased. These bitcoins existed prior to the offer of sale. The only thing that increased was the free float.

Supply is not a number, it's a function relating the price someone bids, to the quantity the bidder could buy at that price.

For example, if 100 bitcoins that were previously unavailable at any price, become available for $600, then supply at $600 (and above) increases by 100. The supply curve shifts to the right.

http://www.investopedia.com/university/economics/economics3....

Re: For Sale: 29,656.51306529 Bitcoins

#86

Isn't this a bit presumptuous? Ross William Ulbricht hasn't yet been convicted of anything. I know that they aren't selling his personal bitcoins, but in the (highly unlikely) event that he is found innocent, wouldn't that mean that the Silk Road assets need to be returned to him? How then can they sell them now?

I thought the same thing. However, if he is found not guilty, then the presumption is that he was not involved and therefore would not be the "rightful owner" of the seized property anyway.

I agree. These coins were the property of the Silk Road website/enterprise.

Re: For Sale: 29,656.51306529 Bitcoins

#88
post #42
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really. Seized properties often sell for less than half of the market value... doesn't mean the property is worth half now... it means the government can't be bothered to take on the responsibility of selling the property at full retail -- ie. they just want to get rid of the assets and move on.

but it does show that bitcoins are NOT considered the same thing as cash. You would not see the case where JPY or GBP or EUR would be sold off at this level of discount...

To be fair, the US government doesn't consider it to be currency. They naturally wouldn't treat it like one when selling.

Re: For Sale: 29,656.51306529 Bitcoins

#89

The price has tanked today as a result of this. http://cryptowat.ch/btce/btcusd/1hr/ Market started going crazy earlier today when DPR's seized coins started to move. https://blockchain.info/address/1FfmbHfnpaZjKFvyi1okTjJJusN4... The downtrend is only accelerating.

The volatility in the bitcoin price just demonstrates how the majority of the people trading it have no conception of how to value the underlying asset (i.e. demand for a low cost transaction system) and thus it is speculators leading speculators a la the blind leading the blind.

The current sharp price decrease is because people are worried that whoever wins this auction (and the subsequent auction of DPR's coins) will want to exit that position. Thus their will be an oversupply in the market and cause the price to decrease. Expecting this, people are taking that into account and trying to get out before the oversupply, causing a self fulfilling prophecy based on bad underlying analysis.

Why would someone go long bitcoins (i.e. buy them and in such quantity) through such a difficult process as dealing with the US gov't to so quickly exit their position?

My hypothesis is that it will be either rich institutional investors, hedge funds, or similar large investors who see this as an opportunity to acquire bitcoins at an undermarket price.

I think many of those groups would sit on their position (and not sell them). Further, if they were to sell them, they would want to do so in a way that didn't dramatically affect the price (thus over many days, weeks, or months). Given that 30K bitcoins is far less than the total bought/sold on exchanges every day, it should be presumed that they can exit this position over a sufficient timeline in order to not cause negative pressure on the price (if the auction winners even want to sell -- which as I analyzed above, I don't think they would).

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